Although I picked Lagat to win, that was a vote with my heart rather than my head. I would think that the lesson of the last Olympic 5000, when the fastest 1500-meter runner was able to steal the race off of a slow pace, would be branded into the memories of T. Bekele, Kipchoge, and Mottram.
I would think that T. Bekele, unlike his brother in 2004, would want to keep the pace reasonably fast, and Mottram would want to use a Viren-like kick from far out, as he did earlier this year in beating a fine group of African runners. Kipchoge is the one guy who seems to have the speed and endurance to handle almost any race scenario, although he has been a bit uneven since his world championship victory over El G and K. Bekele when he was still just a kid.
There are others in the race who shouldn't be overlooked. Abraham whatshisname, from Ethiopia, allegedly ran a 12:54 when he was 16! (I don't actuallly believe it, but still . . . .)