junior runner wrote:
Most importantly, if you could actually find out the answer to this question, what would it do for you?
It would give a reasonable expectation of what I would run after taking a few months off due to family matters/major illness/injuries/ etc.[/quote]
You are going to take a few months off and then race with no training and you want to know what your goal pace should be?
True enough, but I am kind of skeptical in that arena that I could be a 3:50 miler in 4 or 5 years.
I ran like 6:30 in the mile in gym class right before I stareted track and got down to 4:40 by the end of outdoors. I don't think that it would take me another 110 sec to run an extra 400.
totally bullshit. most kids improve more then that hs. This is just crap.
baffled wrote:
Most importantly, if you could actually find out the answer to this question, what would it do for you?
I used to be a coach, and if that formula is really true most of the time, it would be of great help. That way, I can take all of the freshman, who probably haven't trained before, to run a mile during the first day of practice. If very few of them can run their (untrained) mile PRs for a full 2K by their senior year, I know that I'm either doing something wrong with my coaching, or that those kids aren't putting their full effort into it.
bull wrote:
totally bullshit. most kids improve more then that hs. This is just crap.
Maybe it was meant to be interpreted this way:
Case 1:
Runner A has never trained before and runs a 6:00 mile as a HS senior.
Case 2:
Runner B, who's perfectly identical to runner A, trains hard since he was a freshman. He can now run a 6:00 2K as a senior.
NOT -
Runner A runs a 6:00 untrained mile as a freshman. He trains hard and runs much faster than 6:00 for the 2K as a senior. Therefore, the formula is crap.
former coach wrote:
I used to be a coach, and if that formula is really true most of the time, it would be of great help. That way, I can take all of the freshman, who probably haven't trained before, to run a mile during the first day of practice. If very few of them can run their (untrained) mile PRs for a full 2K by their senior year, I know that I'm either doing something wrong with my coaching, or that those kids aren't putting their full effort into it.
Except that those kids are also growing and are going to get quite a bit faster just with natural growth. How are you going to separate out one factor from the other?
baffled wrote:
Except that those kids are also growing and are going to get quite a bit faster just with natural growth. How are you going to separate out one factor from the other?
Exactly. If almost all of those kids still can't run their (untrained) mile times for the 2K despite having natural growth to assist them, I definitely know that either something's wrong with my coaching or that those kids aren't putting in the effort for running.