D3 PREDICTION THREAD

ok mr 408 sleeper anchor.... why dont you just say CNJ Kopnicki anchored in 4:08/9 at IC4a's. The question is how much slower will their other 3 legs run on a flat track after racing all out at superfast BU, against all D1's. Also Kopnicki will have to run the mile trials 2 hours prior to the DMR, whats his best this year on flat track, and all of us NE guys saw how strong he was in that BU 5k.

should be interesting.... I think Davatian is a little better coming back of the mile than Kopnicki will be.

5k will be decent pace, I doubt anyone will go out really hard and risk blowing up, but it will get moving by halfway to try and make sure Leer isnt still hanging around with 400 to go.

TCNJ i heard from a reliable source was in 1st until their 800 leg, which he led 3 of the 4 laps, after getting passed and all the 800 legs all handed off at the same time. Yes, it was a fast track, but they were ahead of these D1 schools you speak of. Not saying they are going to win, but give them a little credit. Williams ran a super fast track, NYU ran at a fast track at Yale. Not many of these teams have run on a flat track. The DMR will be a great race!

Most distance races (including the DMR) take place in lane 1 of a banked track. Lane 1 does not have much of an advantage over a flat track because lane 1 is pretty much flat. Banked tracks give more of an advantage to sprinters.

Um... have you ever run a mile on a banked track vs. a fast track? Lane 1 on a banked track is just as banked at lane 4, how is now an advantage?

that is horseshit, and as a matter of fact, the backed track conversions in d3 are a farce. having only 3-4 seconds penalty over a 5k is absurd.

obviously, you've never run FAST on a banked track or you'd know better....why the hell do you think the whole east coast flocks to boston every year to get their qualifying marks?

while it is undeniable that banked tracks give an adavantage, this advantage is slim for 3k and about equal for 5k with a flat track.

why do people to boston? because the level of competition is better jackass! why do sluts go to washington, penn relays, hayward field, mt. sac or notre dame?

fast people = fast paces, so go where faster people are running and they might pull you along.

easy psychos

yehrightguy wrote:

ok mr 408 sleeper anchor.... why dont you just say CNJ Kopnicki anchored in 4:08/9 at IC4a's. The question is how much slower will their other 3 legs run on a flat track after racing all out at superfast BU, against all D1's. Also Kopnicki will have to run the mile trials 2 hours prior to the DMR, whats his best this year on flat track, and all of us NE guys saw how strong he was in that BU 5k.

should be interesting.... I think Davatian is a little better coming back of the mile than Kopnicki will be.

5k will be decent pace, I doubt anyone will go out really hard and risk blowing up, but it will get moving by halfway to try and make sure Leer isnt still hanging around with 400 to go.

Is an 8k in Ohio mud a test of strength, because if so kopnicki crossed the line 27th and your boy was 54th. He slopped around in some pretty bad conditions if you want to get all picky about your flat tracks and banked tracks. Clearly there is such a big difference in strategy there. What was Davatian's worst 5k of the season? 8:52 is not a fast 3k and definitely isn't a sign of strength. If your going to judge kopnicki's strenght on one race it's only fair that I judge your boy too.

jhsa wrote:

that is horseshit, and as a matter of fact, the backed track conversions in d3 are a farce. having only 3-4 seconds penalty over a 5k is absurd.

obviously, you've never run FAST on a banked track or you'd know better....why the hell do you think the whole east coast flocks to boston every year to get their qualifying marks?

Well your obviously from some midwest SAT optional school, all bitter you go to all D3 school meets all season.

To review, are banked tracks faster? yes in some events, but yes lane 1 is barely banked, so in a 3k and 5k it doesnt help as much. People go to BU and NYC Armory because there is great competition and most meets are a mix of d1,2,3 teams. With all your free time this week, maybe you should take a look at the D1,D2, and D3 banked to flat conversions. D1/2's conversions are almost identical, D3 conversions are way wider, doesnt make sense. Why you ask? cause in pure theory (hey Lowe maybe you can help us out being from RIT with the exact science) the faster you go, the more the track will help you. Well Solinsky and McDougal et all are running a "faster" pace than all the D3 guys, so their benefit should be greater in respect to a flat track. Which in theory the D1 conversion should be MORE than D3. I believe off the top of my head d1 is 1.9 sec? and D3 is 3.6? This flies in the face of the science.

A few years ago, almost the whole d3 5k field came from the Warhawk (i think) meet, on a flat track. Why? i think because for one time all the good kids in Wisc, Ill. etc.. were all at the same meet, and had someone push it from the gun. Again it just shows its about competition. Last couple years there has been alot of talent on the east coast. It comes and goes. Outdoor last year, the same guys who got to NCAA's indoor made it outside. Yout, Donovan, Deshane, Houlshtuze, Joslyn, Abdallah are all just very good right now. 3-4 years ago the midwest had haxton, kleimhagen, lacrosse and oshkosh guys, North Central guys, and the east was getting their butts kicked at xc nat's.

stop whining about the tracks, and get your coach to just bring you to good meets to race fast.

Oh yeah, I would also have to say Lear is the man to beat in the mile, and I think that Kaul and Sigl are the top two to watch in the 5k. Not because they ran on flat tracks all season, but because for the last 2 years they have been very good, just like those named in my previous post.

Neither has over raced this season, and both have run fast in the last 10-14 days.

Thing about NCAA's in the winter is, you never know who has been sick, missed time since they qualified. Tough staying unsick all winter in college dorms with some serious flu strains going around.

anybody else like mount union in the DMR? they had 3 guys on the mile list at 4:14.2, 4:14.2, and 4:13, but none of them declared for the mile and they're all in the DMR. seems like they could throw together a pretty sick race when fresh.

i'll agree with that. I also found it surprising it took til last week for them to qualify auto. They had the same group of guys qualified before, but not with a time that would get in. Seems they'll be ready to roll.

yep. mtu looks awesome. no idea why they declared the way they did, but they could definitely drop something ill.

brian harvey and rob leventhal 1-2 in the mile. i doubt it, but gotta keep it in conference..except for nyu and wash.

yo, i once saw a website that had an archive of every single DIII national result ever and it was searchable. anyone have that link?

i am from the northeast and have both run and coached at BU meets. the advantage at 4:4x pace is 2-3 secs a mile.

dumas wrote:

i am from the northeast and have both run and coached at BU meets. the advantage at 4:4x pace is 2-3 secs a mile.[/quote]

And how can you prove that? Why does D1 have the conversion at 1.9? It is not so much a track factor as the kids get it in their head they are gonna run fast there (BU) and it makes such a pyschological effect on them. Not to mention knowing they are running against d1 guys also. If you coach college, then you know at the college meets the pace in most heats is fast. (fast for a first heat, fast for a thrd heat etc) So everyone gets out and gets rolling.

Yeah I think Mt Union will be really tough in the DMR as well, as some one else said, not sure why they wouldnt run the mile too. All those guys are seniors and I think they could have had at least 2 in the final, plus I think they have some throwers. Could have scored alot of points. Will MTU or Lacrosse make sure to get the 1200 going, to try and get away from the really good anchors, who will be doubling back from the mile trials.??

Hmm you are right about competition being the main factor at those meets. However your argument about the comparison of D1 conversion to D3 conversion doesn't make sense to me. If someone is going faster(ie racing for less time) then the conversion should be less because if you're using the same percentage then obv the conversion will be lower if the total time is lower.

However really the difference is negligible because what's the diff between running at 435 pace and 445 pace in terms of the track not much I dont think.

Btw this has nothing to do with the D3 predictions lol so I will just say Go Laura Paulsen! Hopefully she will finish in the top 3-5 as a freshman esp if lots of the women are doubling in the DMR or other events.

I was under the impression D1 stopped converting times at all, oversized, banked or otherwise. If they do convert times, they aren't converted on the performance lists (except for altitude i believe). At any rate, the conversion is arbitrary, and there is a wide variety of banked tracks. The Arkansas track is known to be far and away the fastest of the banked tracks for 200-400 sprints because of the way it is banked. Also, does anyone know what D3 would do if you ran your qualifying time at Millrose, which is an undersized (11 lap to mile) track that is banked. The point being that every track is different so to assign these arbitrary penalty values is ridiculous. Not saying the tracks don't make a difference, but I just don't buy the numbers they use. Especially since they are penalizing more for banked and oversized tracks this year than they did last year!

just to add to the banked track dispute. we actually set up a spreadsheet last year with the BU times against times from other indoor tracks. BU is humorously fast. Like to the point where its almost ridiculous. I'm looking for the data now, but I remember the advantage at BU being around 1/2 second PER LAP for the distance races.

guys at 14:41, 14:46, and 14:48...only one went under 15 at any other point in the season, and just barely at 14:58, on another track.

a 2:31.xx in the thousand, never to break 2:35 on any other track.

4:18 guy running 4:10!, and lots of other similar stuff.

I know a lot of people will bring up the "oh theres just better competition there so people run faster" argument, but thatll only take you so far. BU, and some of the other banked facilities, give WAY too much of an advantage and arent good indicators of performance capability.

How can you say they are not good predictors of ability? Those guys ran those times. On that given day they were 1440s guys, maybe they weren't able to duplicate it, but who knows, maybe they just went out too fast in their other races. Banked tracks are faster, but people still have to run fast on them. You don't get 15:00 guys running 14:40 just because it is banked. There is no way for a perfect system when people are running on distinctly different surfaces (which is why D1 is better because everyone runs on banked or oversized who go to nats), but bottom line is people still have to run the times and to do that you need to have the fitness for it.