Only about 2 hours after it occurred to everyone else in the world, I realised I could check on old Statman and get more info on who JEH was. I found this. I hope he won?t mind me highlighting these numbers. No reason why he should, they are good.
800: 1.53
Mile: 4.14
3000: 8.41
5000: 15.02
10k road: 31.16
HM: 1.10.30
M: 2.27.57
I have written above that to get to 2.20, a runner really should have a 14.30/5k and a sub-30/10k. I would hold that to be generally true. I know there will be a number of exceptions to this, usually among those who simply have a predisposition to long distance and relatively poorer times at middle distance.
I had proposed this in a thread some time ago and argued that such runners did not slow up so much from 10k to marathon as others. I argued that such runners only needed to add 25 secs to their 10k time to get their marathon time, while others, those who had a speedier kick at the shorter distances, often needed to add even 35 secs/mile to their 10k time to get their best marathon pace.
It appears that JEH needs to add 36 secs to his 10k PR (5.02m/m) to get his marathon PR (5.38m/m). At first glance, this suggests that he may have been one of the speedier runners and may (he can confirm this) have had something of a kick in his middle distance days. His 1.53/800m time certainly suggests that he had a fair amount of basic speed.
Contrast that 800m time with those of Malmo (1.54) and certainly Hodgie-san (1.59), both with superior marathon times. In this case those fast 800s might work against him in his aim for a fast marathon time.
Does this imply I believe it is impossible for JEH to run 2.20 because he doesn't have the 5k-10k times I said were required? Far from it. I would need a lot more convincing than the bald facts above.
Some points I would raise:
His 800/mile paces are superior to his 3000m and up performances. This could simply be down to the fact that he ran these in college and was very well trained for those distances. As he moved up, his training for the longer distances may have been less than perfect. This is certaily possible when it comes to the marathon. It is very reasonable to expect that his marathon preparation was nowhere near as good as his preparation for 800m (for example). The reason he slows up 36 secs from 10k to marathon may simply be that his marathon preparation was less than ideal.
So it is not wise to say ?impossible?. It does not sound as though he was coached as well as possible during his marathon preparation. Many people get good 800m coaching at HS/college, but few ever get good marathon training. Unless he was in some national team, it is unlikely he would have received any. So there is definitely a certain amount of improvement that can come there. There?s a point or two in his favour.
On the minus side, he does give the impression that he has been out of the sport for some time and is not finding it really easy to ?re-light? the fire. So he is not just another guy with a solid 10k ?moving up? and wanting good advice. He seems to be coming from wayyyyy back.
But older can also mean wiser. And if he can re-light his fire then he may actually find it easier to get his nose to the grindstone and just get the work done. He will no longer expect the quick-fix result that younger athletes often do.
JEH,
Without knowing how old you are, how long you have been away from serious running, it is pretty much impossible to say how long it might take you to get to a marathon PR. I hope I have shown that I believe a PR is certainly possible if you can find the will to begin.
I know Jason?s PR is some 10 years old, but this year he is doing everything he can to better it. For all the criticism he receives, in this he is an example to many.
PS: having read your PR list, please excuse my BS ?you can be back to within 2 mins of your 10k best? statement earlier. It definitely did not apply to you and I will be more careful before making such blanket statements in the future.
Good luck in whatever you choose to do. I will definitely answer any questions you put to me along the way.