Ritz Marathon Predictions

Banned in Brooklyn wrote:

Do you have any idea how fast the lead group goes in most NYC marathons? Ritz would be a fool to do go with them.

Below are the men's winners, which even for NYC shouldn't make Ritz a "fool" to go for. No way should Ritz strategically avoid a 2:09 pace for the win. Not after beating Baldini and running with the guys he just did. If anyone's reply is that the marathon's different, so Ritz should stay off the pace, then you have zero competitive edge to you. If he can tell he doesn't have it, then don't be dumb. But hold back because it's 2:09 pace, after a 1:01 half?? Even in NY?? No way.

2000 Abdelkhader El Mouaziz, MOR 2:10:09

2001 Tesfaye Jifar, ETH 2:07:43*

2002 Rodgers Rop, KEN 2:08:07

2003 Martin Lel, KEN 2:10:30

2004 Hendrik Ramaala, RSA 2:09:28

2005 Paul Tergat, KEN 2:09:30

ttc wrote:

Below are the men's winners, which even for NYC shouldn't make Ritz a "fool" to go for. No way should Ritz strategically avoid a 2:09 pace for the win.

2000 Abdelkhader El Mouaziz, MOR 2:10:09

2001 Tesfaye Jifar, ETH 2:07:43*

2002 Rodgers Rop, KEN 2:08:07

2003 Martin Lel, KEN 2:10:30

2004 Hendrik Ramaala, RSA 2:09:28

2005 Paul Tergat, KEN 2:09:30

ttc, you missed the point. The half splits during those years have been incredibly fast, and there has been a few warm days since 2000.

Here is a summation of the halfway splits since 1999, with the number in the lead pack who finished, the time of the winner and the time of the 10th place finisher. Figure the number in the lead pack to be much greater than the numbers shown, due to attrition.

2005 1:04:57 (11+) 1) 2:09:30 Tegat 10) 2:14:21 Macharia

2004 1:04:17 (13+) 1) 2:09:28 Ramaala 10) 2:14:51 Andriani

2003 1:05:40 (21+) 1) 2:10:30 Lei 10) 2:15:10 El Arbi

2002 1:03:49 (14+) 1) 2:08:07 Rop 10) 2:13:28 Ndungu

2001 1:03:51 (10+) 1) 2:07:43 Jifar 10) 2:14:19 NDyngu

2000 1:03:08 (15+ under 1:04:14) 1) 2:10:09 El Mouaziz 10) 2:17:02 Kagwe

1999 1:04:25 (14+) 1)2:09:13 10)Chebet 2:13:22

Unless it's a warm day, you can almost guarantee that the lead pack will go through in under 1:04:00, and the pack will be big. As the history of NYC shows, it's also almost guaranteed that most of them will be crawling to the finish if they make it at all.

New York Marathon is known for its death marches

this is a non-unique claim to make malmo. look at London the past few years - one can argue there is a much bigger "death march" there since the gap between 1st and 10th is often over 4min. the same with chicago. and look at berlin this year - 1st and second were separated by about 5minutes!

and Chicago this year where they went out in 1:02:30 and Twin Cities today where there were 5 guys on 2:12 pace as late as 20 miles and and and and

I previously thought 2:11 but today tells me 2:17. Focus appears to be all wrong. Much like Geb prior to London.

Another thing which i think your post demonstrates but which was not your intention is the quality of guys running 2.09/2.10. Both Ramala and Tergat have run sub 2.07 and yet could not get under 2.09 at New York. I think a conservative estimate would be to knock 2.00-2.30 off a New York time for a possible time at one of the other big city marathons.

So for those scoffing at people suggesting 2.09/2.10 you are basically saying you think Ritz is a sub 2.07 marathon runner. maybe/hopefully soon but not yet.

danzig/mother wrote:

this is a non-unique claim to make malmo. look at London the past few years - one can argue there is a much bigger "death march" there since the gap between 1st and 10th is often over 4min. the same with chicago. and look at berlin this year - 1st and second were separated by about 5minutes!

The facts run contrary to your claim.

Best competitions, Marathon, placing: 8

2:08:45 Flora London

23 Apr 2006

Results: 1 Felix Limo KEN 2:06:39

2 Martin Lel KEN 2:06:41

3 Hendrick Ramaala RSA 2:06:55

4 Khalid Khannouchi USA 2:07:04

5 Stefano Baldini ITA 2:07:22 NR

6 Rodgers Rop KEN 2:07:34

7 Hicham Chatt MAR 2:07:59

8 Jaouad Gharib MAR 2:08:45

9 Haile Gebrselassie ETH 2:09:05

10 Evans Rutto KEN 2:09:35

11 Abdelkader El Mouaziz MAR 2:10:24

12 Peter Riley GBR 2:14:31

13 Shigeru Aburaya JPN 2:14:49

14 Kamel Ziani ESP 2:14:50

15 Huw Lobb GBR 2:15:38

16 Tomas Abyu GBR 2:15:50

17 Francisco Javier Cortés ESP 2:15:51

18 Trond Idland NOR 2:16:09

19 Henrik Sandstad NOR 2:16:48

20 Phil Sly AUS 2:16:53

21 Karl Johan Rasmussen NOR 2:17:20

22 Nigel Leighton GBR 2:18:25

23 Richard Gardiner GBR 2:18:41

24 Michael Green GBR 2:19:14

25 Andi Jones GBR 2:19:16

26 Tsuyoshi Ogata JPN 2:19:17

27 John McFarlane GBR 2:19:24

28 Dennis Jensen DEN 2:19:37

29 Adrian Marriott GBR 2:20:30

30 Ian Fisher GBR 2:20:38

31 Jaakko Kero FIN 2:20:43

32 Kristoffer Sterlund SWE 2:21:08

33 Pumlani Bangani RSA 2:22:27

34 Jonas Buud SWE 2:22:28

35 Fred Kieser USA 2:23:03

36 Dave Norman GBR 2:23:26

37 Daniel Simons GBR 2:23:29

Anders Szalkai SWE DNF

Mark Carroll IRL DNF

Kassa Tadesse GBR DNF

Christopher Isegwe Njug'unda TAN DNF

El Hassan Lahssini FRA DNF

2:08:54 Paris

6 Apr 2003

2:08:58 Flora London

13 Apr 2003

Results: 1 Gezahegn Abera ETH 2:07:56

2 Stefano Baldini ITA 2:07:56

3 Joseph Ngolepus KEN 2:07:57

4 Paul Tergat KEN 2:07:59

5 Samson Ramadhani TAN 2:08:01 NR

6 Abdelkader El Mouaziz MAR 2:08:03

7 Lee Bong-Ju KOR 2:08:10

8 Hendrick Ramaala RSA 2:08:58

9 Ian Syster RSA 2:09:18

10 Francisco Javier Cortés ESP 2:10:39

11 Joseph Kahugu KEN 2:13:16

12 David Makori KEN 2:13:23

13 Ambesa Tolosa ETH 2:13:32

14 Onesmus Kilonzo KEN 2:13:55

15 Samson Lopuyet KEN 2:15:24

16 Sisay Bezabeh AUS 2:16:09

17 Chris Cariss GBR 2:17:56

2:09:08 Boston MA

18 Apr 1994

Results: 9 Samuel Nyangincha KEN 2:09:15

10 Moses Tanui KEN 2:09:40

11 Lee Bong-Ju KOR 2:09:57

12 Martín Fiz ESP 2:10:21

13 Luíz Antônio dos Santos BRA 2:10:39

14 Lameck Aguta KEN 2:11:19

15 Thabiso Moqhali LES 2:11:40

2:09:11 Generale Rotterdam

20 Apr 1997

Results: 1 Domingos Castro POR 2:07:51

2 Alejandro Gómez ESP 2:07:54

3 Sammy Korir KEN 2:08:02

4 Simon Lopuyet KEN 2:08:19

5 Abebe Mekonnen ETH 2:08:46

6 Luíz Antônio dos Santos BRA 2:08:55

7 Giacomo Leone ITA 2:09:07

8 Masaki Oya JPN 2:09:11

9 Danilo Goffi ITA 2:09:13

10 Margarito Zamora MEX 2:12:21

11 Julius Ondieki KEN 2:13:58

12 Tekeye Gebrselassie NED 2:15:25

14 Fidel Hernández MEX 2:15:44

16 Aart Stigter NED 2:16:31

17 Pekka Rantakari FIN 2:16:50

19 A Said DJI 2:17:57

20 Ronald Schut NED 2:18:21

21 Abdelkarim Yetimi TUN 2:19:15

2:09:17 Flora London

14 Apr 2002

Results: 1 Khalid Khannouchi USA 2:05:38 AR

2 Paul Tergat KEN 2:05:48

3 Haile Gebrselassie ETH 2:06:35

4 Abdelkader El Mouaziz MAR 2:06:52

5 Ian Syster RSA 2:07:06

6 Stefano Baldini ITA 2:07:29

7 António Pinto POR 2:09:10

8 Mark Steinle GBR 2:09:17

9 Tesfaye Jifar ETH 2:09:50

10 Mohamed El Hattab MAR 2:11:50

11 Michael Buchleitner AUT 2:14:11

12 Rachid El Ghanmouni MAR 2:15:29

13 William Kiplagat KEN 2:15:59

14 Billy Burns GBR 2:17:36

15 Dan Robinson GBR 2:17:51

2:09:18 Flora London

13 Apr 1997

Results: 1 António Pinto POR 2:07:55

2 Stefano Baldini ITA 2:07:57

3 Josiah Thugwane RSA 2:08:06

4 Erick Kimaiyo KEN 2:08:08

5 Richard Nerurkar GBR 2:08:36

6 Steve Moneghetti AUS 2:08:45

7 Lawrence Peu RSA 2:09:10

8 Paul Evans GBR 2:09:18

9 José Manuel García ESP 2:09:30

10 Stéphane Franke GER 2:11:26

11 Eder Fialho BRA 2:11:57

12 Pablo Sierra ESP 2:12:22

13 Eamonn Martin GBR 2:12:29

14 Jean-Pierre Monciaux FRA 2:13:52

15 Steve Brooks GBR 2:13:55

16 Juan José Castillo PER 2:14:15

17 Dave Buzza GBR 2:14:17

18 Miguel Mallqui PER 2:14:19

19 Bruce Deacon CAN 2:14:20

20 Juan Torres ESP 2:14:22

21 Luis Reyes MEX 2:14:33

23 Henrique Crisóstomo POR 2:14:37

24 Seiji Kushibe JPN 2:15:10

25 Isaac García MEX 2:15:14

26 Mark Flint GBR 2:15:44

27 Alfredo Norvello ITA 2:16:15

28 David Cavers GBR 2:16:18

29 Dan Rathbone GBR 2:16:23

30 Tore Bye NOR 2:16:57

31 Billy Majafa RSA 2:17:21

32 Miguel Rivero ESP 2:17:31

33 Wilson Omwoyo KEN 2:18:10

34 Igor Salamun SLO 2:18:44

35 Bill Foster GBR 2:18:44

36 Barry Royden GBR 2:19:00

38 Moses Tuei KEN 2:19:57

2:09:42 Generale Rotterdam

18 Apr 1999

Results: 1 Japhet Kosgei KEN 2:07:09

2 Fabián Roncero ESP 2:07:23

- Julio Rey ESP 2:07:37

3 Simon Biwott KEN 2:07:41

4 Kim Yi-Yong KOR 2:07:49

5 Muneyuki Ojima JPN 2:08:48

6 Abdelsalam Serrokh MAR 2:08:59

7 Joseph Mereng KEN 2:09:36

8 Francisco Javier Cortés ESP 2:09:42

9 Simon Lopuyet KEN 2:09:51

10 Greg van Hest NED 2:10:05

11 Kamiel Maase NED 2:10:08

12 Daniele Caimmi ITA 2:11:29

13 Yuriy Pavlov RUS 2:13:46

14 Pavel Loskutov EST 2:14:51

15 Benson Lokorwa KEN 2:15:06

16 Juan Torres ESP 2:15:13

17 Patrick Sang KEN 2:15:39

18 Aiduna Aitnafa NED 2:15:50

19 Joseph Kahugu KEN 2:16:11

20 Peter Visser NED 2:16:24

22 Eliud Kurgat KEN 2:17:02

23 Luc Krotwaar NED 2:17:17

24 Jeroen van Damme NED 2:17:22

2:09:42 Fukuoka

7 Dec 2003

2:09:46 Berlin

28 Sep 1997

2:09:47 Real Berlin

26 Sep 2004

Results: 1 Felix Limo KEN 2:06:44

2 Joseph Riri KEN 2:06:49

3 Joshua Chelanga KEN 2:07:05

4 Wilson Onsare KEN 2:08:53

5 Luís Jesus POR 2:09:08

6 Shin-ichi Watanabe JPN 2:09:32

7 Luís Novo POR 2:09:41

8 Asfaws Gashaw Melese ETH 2:09:47

9 Isaac Macharia KEN 2:11:26

10 Ernest Kipyego KEN 2:11:52

11 Simon Wangai KEN 2:12:08

12 Benjamin Itok KEN 2:12:17

13 Fred Kiprop KEN 2:12:42

14 Makoto Ogura JPN 2:12:48

15 Michael Ngaseke ZIM 2:12:53

16 Takashi Tokunaga JPN 2:13:39

17 Jason Mbote KEN 2:13:42

18 Dawit Terefa ETH 2:14:18

19 Satoshi Irifune JPN 2:14:18

20 Carsten Schütz GER 2:14:41

21 Martin Beckmann GER 2:15:06

22 Lucian Disdery Hombo TAN 2:15:10

23 Getulo Bayo TAN 2:15:12

24 Asier Cuevas ESP 2:15:41

25 Carlos Valente POR 2:16:21

26 Terefe Yae ETH 2:17:29

27 Shimelis Mola ETH 2:17:33

28 Toshiya Katayama JPN 2:18:16

29 Giorgio Calcaterra ITA 2:19:26

30 Petri Saavalainen FIN 2:19:31

31 Takashi Horiguchi JPN 2:19:43

2:09:49 LaSalle Chicago IL

19 Oct 1997

Results: 1 Khalid Khannouchi MAR 2:07:10

2 Fred Kiprop KEN 2:08:19

3 Peter Ndirangu KEN 2:08:46

4 Philip Chirchir KEN 2:08:56

5 Patrick Muturi KEN 2:08:59

6 Paul Evans GBR 2:09:20

7 Jerry Lawson USA 2:09:35

8 Silvio Guerra ECU 2:09:49 NR

9 Jon Brown GBR 2:10:13

10 Todd Williams USA 2:11:17

14 Terrence Mahon USA 2:13:02

15 Alfredo Vigueras USA 2:13:51

16 Hector de Jesus MEX 2:14:01

17 Scott Larson USA 2:14:57

2:09:58 Real Berlin

28 Sep 2003

Results: 1 Paul Tergat KEN 2:04:55 WR

2 Sammy Korir KEN 2:04:56

3 Titus Munji KEN 2:06:15

4 Andrés Espinosa MEX 2:08:46 WR40

5 Raymond Kipkoech KEN 2:09:21

6 Kazuhiro Matsuda JPN 2:09:49

7 Kurao Umeki JPN 2:09:52

8 André Luiz Ramos BRA 2:09:58

9 Makhosonke Fika RSA 2:10:16

10 Javier Caballero ESP 2:10:44

11 Yasuaki Yamamoto JPN 2:10:55

12 Satoshi Osaki JPN 2:12:07

13 Janne Holmén FIN 2:12:10

14 Tadayuki Tsutsumi JPN 2:12:41

15 Yohei Sato JPN 2:13:37

16 Jacob Losian KEN 2:13:42

17 Hyung Jae-Young KOR 2:14:21

18 Mykola Rudyk UKR 2:14:30

19 Alex de Mendonça BRA 2:14:46

20 Takhir Mamashayev KAZ 2:15:20

21 John Kioko KEN 2:15:29

22 Hugo van den Broek NED 2:15:54

23 Jirka Arndt GER 2:16:28

24 Wodage Zvadya ISR 2:17:14

25 Noriaki Igarashi JPN 2:17:25

26 Dan Robinson GBR 2:18:01

27 Martin McCarthy IRL 2:18:45

2:09:58 Flora London

18 Apr 2004

Results: 1 Evans Rutto KEN 2:06:19

2 Sammy Korir KEN 2:06:49

3 Jaouad Gharib MAR 2:07:12

4 Stefano Baldini ITA 2:08:37

5 Tesfaye Tola ETH 2:09:07

6 Benoit Zwierzchlewski FRA 2:09:35

7 Abdelkader El Mouaziz MAR 2:09:42

8 Lee Troop AUS 2:09:58

9 John Yuda Msuri TAN 2:10:13

10 Joseph Peter Kadon KEN 2:11:30

11 Joseph Ngolepus KEN 2:12:02

12 William Kiplagat KEN 2:12:04

13 Sisay Bezabeh AUS 2:12:05

14 Scott Westcott AUS 2:13:30

15 Jon Brown GBR 2:13:39

16 Dan Robinson GBR 2:13:53

17 Nikólaos Polías GRE 2:15:02

18 Chris Cariss GBR 2:15:08

19 Huw Lobb GBR 2:15:49

20 Mark Hudspith GBR 2:16:15

21 Billy Burns GBR 2:16:18

22 Scott Winton NZL 2:17:40

23 John McFarlane GBR 2:17:53

24 Michael Green GBR 2:18:11

25 Bruce Deacon CAN 2:18:30

26 Philip Kirui KEN 2:18:43

27 Stuart Hall GBR 2:18:45

28 Gareth Raven GBR 2:18:49

29 Runar Höiom SWE 2:18:51

30 Dave Norman GBR 2:18:53

31 Dave Mitchinson GBR 2:18:58

32 Dominic Bannister GBR 2:19:10

33 Lábros Záraggas GRE 2:19:21

2:10:04 Fortis Rotterdam

13 Apr 2003

Results: 1 William Kiplagat KEN 2:07:42

2 Josephat Kiprono KEN 2:07:53

3 José Manuel Martínez ESP 2:08:09

4 Fred Kiprop KEN 2:09:14

5 Ashebir Demissie ETH 2:09:14

6 Jaouad Gharib MAR 2:09:15

7 Stephen Cheptot KEN 2:09:31

8 Matthew Sigei KEN 2:10:04

9 Mark Saina KEN 2:10:13

10 Ernest Kipyego KEN 2:10:14

11 Kamiel Maase NED 2:10:28

12 Tereje Wodajo ETH 2:12:53

13 Oscar Fernández ESP 2:13:23

14 John Gwako KEN 2:17:02

15 Driss Lakhaouaja MAR 2:17:23

2:10:05 Fortis Rotterdam

9 Apr 2006

Results: 1 Sammy Korir KEN 2:06:38

2 Paul Kirui KEN 2:06:44

3 Charles Kibiwott KEN 2:06:52

4 Dejene Berhanu ETH 2:08:46

5 Jackson Koech KEN 2:09:15

6 Salim Kipsang KEN 2:09:26

7 Christopher Cheboiboch KEN 2:09:41

8 Thomas Kiplitan KEN 2:10:05

9 Mesfin Ademasu ETH 2:10:45

10 Kamiel Maase NED 2:10:45

11 Kurao Umeki JPN 2:11:31

12 Francis Kirwa FIN 2:13:09

13 Jamal Baligha MAR 2:13:44

14 Luke Kibet KEN 2:15:25

15 Paulo Gomes POR 2:15:56

16 Luís Feiteira POR 2:16:10

17 Gudisa Shentema ETH 2:17:53

18 Sander Schutgens NED 2:17:55

19 Luke Kipkosgei KEN 2:19:20

20 Gena Ketebo ETH 2:20:45

2:10:07 LaSalle Chicago IL

11 Oct 1998

Results: 1 Ondoro Osoro KEN 2:06:54

2 Khalid Khannouchi MAR 2:07:19

3 Gert Thys RSA 2:07:45

4 Joseph Kahugu KEN 2:07:59

5 Moses Tanui KEN 2:09:43

6 Eder Fialho BRA 2:09:48

7 Philip Chirchir KEN 2:09:52

8 Shinji Kawashima JPN 2:10:07

9 Silvio Guerra ECU 2:10:17

10 Elija Lagat KEN 2:10:33

11 Luíz Antônio dos Santos BRA 2:11:23

12 Miguel Mallqui PER 2:11:36 NR

13 James Kariuki KEN 2:12:01

14 Carlos Bautista MEX 2:12:23

15 Rod DeHaven USA 2:13:02

16 Joseph Mereng KEN 2:13:38

17 José Luis Molina CRC 2:14:13

18 Johannes Maremane RSA 2:14:29

19 Juan Martínez MEX 2:14:55

20 Mark Coogan USA 2:15:33

21 John Sence USA 2:15:40

2:10:07 Lake Biwa Otsu

7 Mar 2004

Results: 1 José Ríos ESP 2:07:42

2 Tadayuki Ojima JPN 2:08:18

3 Wilson Onsare KEN 2:08:33

4 Atsushi Sato JPN 2:08:36

5 Kazutoshi Takatsuka JPN 2:08:56

6 Yuko Matsumiya JPN 2:09:25

7 Shin-ichi Watanabe JPN 2:09:55

8 Muneyuki Ojima JPN 2:10:07

9 Tadakatsu Mukae JPN 2:11:01

10 Ryuji Takei JPN 2:11:42

11 Kazushi Hara JPN 2:12:11

12 Masatoshi Oike JPN 2:12:15

13 Sergey Lukin RUS 2:12:27

14 Yukiyasu Nagao JPN 2:12:31

15 Pavel Loskutov EST 2:12:33

16 Hiroyuki Fujii JPN 2:12:39

17 Tadayuki Tsutsumi JPN 2:12:42

18 Yohei Sato JPN 2:12:49

19 Yuzo Onishi JPN 2:12:53

20 Makoto Ogura JPN 2:12:58

21 Alberto Juzdado ESP 2:13:14

22 Yoshiteru Morishita JPN 2:13:39

23 Atsushi Sawayanagi JPN 2:13:55

24 Lee Myong-Seun KOR 2:13:57

25 Nagahisa Kaneko JPN 2:13:57

26 Toshiaki Tezuka JPN 2:14:07

27 Masayuki Kobayashi JPN 2:14:41

28 Shinobu Minami JPN 2:14:57

29 Kazunobu Masushita JPN 2:15:03

30 Tetsuo Nishikawa JPN 2:15:21

31 Tomonori Watanabe JPN 2:15:26

32 Masahiro Matsumoto JPN 2:15:44

33 Shigekatsu Kondo JPN 2:15:52

34 Kenjiro Jitsui JPN 2:16:21

35 Hiroshi Fujiki JPN 2:16:31

36 Seiji Kushibe JPN 2:16:45

37 Akira Manai JPN 2:16:54

38 Kazunori Yoshihara JPN 2:16:59

39 Silvio Guerra ECU 2:17:23

40 Tomonori Onitsuka JPN 2:17:34

41 Nobuyuki Sato JPN 2:17:37

42 Tomonari Hoshino JPN 2:17:47

43 Nobuaki Nagai JPN 2:18:15

44 Shingo Kitagawa JPN 2:18:17

45 Takayuki Masatsuna JPN 2:18:21

46 Koichiro Fukuoka JPN 2:18:33

47 Takeshi Sato JPN 2:18:37

48 Motofumi Amano JPN 2:18:38

49 Nobuhiko Chiba JPN 2:19:04

50 Satoru Shimomura JPN 2:19:39

51 Kei Yokoyama JPN 2:19:52

52 Piotr Gladki POL 2:20:10

53 Masanori Kobayashi JPN 2:20:15

54 Mitsunobu Iwamoto JPN 2:20:34

Abner Chipu RSA DNF

Yasuaki Yamamoto JPN DNF

Japhet Kosgei KEN DNF

Tadesse Gebre ETH DNF

John Nada Saya TAN DNF

Josephat Kiprono KEN DNF

Alene Emre ETH DNF

Luís Jesus POR DNF

2:10:09 Joongangilbo Seoul

3 Nov 2002

Results: 1 Mbarak Hussein KEN 2:09:46

2 Fred Kiprop KEN 2:09:47

3 Ji Young-Joon KOR 2:09:48

4 Tereje Wodajo ETH 2:09:51

5 Josephat Kiprono KEN 2:09:51

6 Tesfaye Tola ETH 2:09:56

7 Josiah Thugwane RSA 2:10:05

8 Kim Yi-Yong KOR 2:10:09

9 Francis Kipketer KEN 2:11:04

10 Juan Camacho MEX 2:11:14

11 Pavel Andreyev RUS 2:12:30

12 Josiah Bembe RSA 2:14:35

13 Phil Sly AUS 2:16:17

14 Henry Moyo MAW 2:18:05

15 Sylvester Moleko RSA 2:18:08

16 Kim Je-Kyong KOR 2:19:28

17 Shigekatsu Kondo JPN 2:20:24

2:10:12 Delta Amsterdam

20 Oct 2002

Results: 1 Benjamin Kosgei KEN 2:07:26

2 Simon Bor KEN 2:07:56

3 Stephen Cheptot KEN 2:07:59

4 Antoni Peña ESP 2:08:08

5 Sammy Korir KEN 2:08:10

6 Boaz Kimaiyo KEN 2:08:46

7 Ambesa Tolosa ETH 2:10:11

8 Matthew Sigei KEN 2:10:12

9 Luc Krotwaar NED 2:11:19

10 William Kiplagat KEN 2:11:25

11 Ashebir Demissie ETH 2:12:13

12 Moses Masai KEN 2:14:45

13 Kamal Saaidou MAR 2:15:30

14 John Mutai KEN 2:16:23

2:10:12 Eindhoven

9 Oct 2005

2:10:14 Paris

7 Apr 2002

2:10:24 Flora London

18 Apr 1999

Results: 1 Abdelkader El Mouaziz MAR 2:07:57

2 António Pinto POR 2:09:00

3 Abel Antón ESP 2:09:41

4 Jon Brown GBR 2:09:44

5 Josephat Kiprono KEN 2:09:49

6 Giacomo Leone ITA 2:10:03

7 Alberto Juzdado ESP 2:10:08

8 Domingos Castro POR 2:10:24

9 Simon Mphulanyane RSA 2:10:56

10 Yasuaki Yamamoto JPN 2:11:13

11 Lee Troop AUS 2:11:21

12 Lee Bong-Ju KOR 2:12:11

13 Tekeye Gebrselassie NED 2:13:13

14 Anders Szalkai SWE 2:13:19

15 Giovanni Ruggiero ITA 2:13:31

16 Tena Negere ETH 2:13:40

17 Ronaldo da Costa BRA 2:14:10

18 Philippe Rémond FRA 2:14:21

19 Benjamin Paredes MEX 2:14:31

20 Pere Arco ESP 2:14:41

21 Isaac Chemobo KEN 2:15:00

22 Mark Hudspith GBR 2:15:11

23 Ian Hudspith GBR 2:15:47

24 Robbie Johnston NZL 2:15:51

25 Nikólaos Polías GRE 2:16:31

26 Eamonn Martin GBR 2:17:22

27 Dave Buzza GBR 2:17:39

2:10:26 ING Amsterdam

19 Oct 2003

Results: 1 William Kipsang KEN 2:06:39

2 Felix Limo KEN 2:06:42

3 Benjamin Kosgei KEN 2:07:39

4 William Kiplagat KEN 2:07:51

5 Robert Cheruiyot KEN 2:08:13

6 Kamiel Maase NED 2:08:31 NR

7 Tadesse Hailemariam ETH 2:09:34

8 Thomas Chemitei KEN 2:10:26

9 Robert Cheboror KEN 2:11:06

10 Ismaïl Sghyr FRA 2:11:27

11 Moses Tanui KEN 2:12:24

12 Rik Ceulemans BEL 2:13:42

13 Chris Carris GBR 2:17:39

2:10:29 Flora London

16 Apr 2000

Results: 1 António Pinto POR 2:06:36 AR

2 Abdelkader El Mouaziz MAR 2:07:33

3 Khalid Khannouchi USA 2:08:36

4 William Kiplagat KEN 2:09:06

5 Hendrick Ramaala RSA 2:09:43

6 Stefano Baldini ITA 2:09:45

7 Mathias Ntawulikura RWA 2:09:55 NR

8 Josiah Thugwane RSA 2:10:29

9 Mukhamet Nazipov RUS 2:10:35

10 Danilo Goffi ITA 2:10:54

11 Mark Steinle GBR 2:11:18

12 Gert Thys RSA 2:11:32

13 Shem Kororia KEN 2:12:28

14 Patrick Ndayisenga BDI 2:13:28

15 Keith Cullen GBR 2:13:37

6 John Mutai KEN 2:14:55

17 Jamie Lewis IRL 2:15:07

18 Mark Hudspith GBR 2:15:16

19 Sergio Jiménez MEX 2:15:37

20 Billy Burns GBR 2:15:42

21 Alejandro Gómez ESP 2:15:48

22 Mark Croasdale GBR 2:16:02

23 Joseph Maqala RSA 2:17:00

2:10:33 Fortis Rotterdam

22 Apr 2001

Results: 1 Josephat Kiprono KEN 2:06:50

2 Kenneth Cheruiyot KEN 2:07:18

3 Sammy Korir KEN 2:08:14

4 Abdellah Béhar FRA 2:09:05

5 Isaac Kiprono KEN 2:09:59

6 Lee Troop AUS 2:10:04

7 Fabián Roncero ESP 2:10:08

8 Oscar Fernández ESP 2:10:33

9 Kamel Ziani ESP 2:10:36

10 Robert Cheruiyot KEN 2:10:41

11 James Moiben KEN 2:10:44

12 Koen Allaert BEL 2:10:45

13 Viktor Röthlin SUI 2:12:22

14 António Sousa POR 2:13:10

15 Vasílios Zabélis GRE 2:13:55

16 Mohamed Emaoui MAR 2:14:03

17 Vincenzo Modica ITA 2:14:39

18 David Menjo KEN 2:15:13

19 Theódoros Záhos GRE 2:15:50

20 Moses Saina KEN 2:15:57

21 Janne Holmén FIN 2:16:24

22 Eduard Tukhbatullin RUS 2:17:02

2:10:34 LaSalle Chicago IL

9 Oct 2005

Results: 1 Felix Limo KEN 2:07:02

2 Benjamin Maiyo KEN 2:07:09

3 Daniel Njenga KEN 2:07:14

4 Evans Rutto KEN 2:07:28

5 Patrick Ivuti KEN 2:07:46

6 Laban Kipkemboi KEN 2:09:22

7 William Kipsang KEN 2:09:49

8 Timothy Cherigat KEN 2:10:34

9 Sammy Korir KEN 2:10:53

10 John Gwako KEN 2:12:30

11 Pablo Olmedo MEX 2:12:45

12 Alan Culpepper USA 2:13:20

13 Shin-ichi Watanabe JPN 2:13:28

14 Matt Lane USA 2:17:32

15 Josh Eberly USA 2:19:29

16 Atsushi Sato JPN 2:19:44

17 Luke Humphrey USA 2:20:21

18 Casey Moulton USA 2:20:23

19 Jason Warick USA 2:20:45

20 James Lander USA 2:21:06

21 Clint Verran USA 2:21:45

22 Thomas Nyariki KEN 2:21:51

2:10:35 WC Saint-Denis

30 Aug 2003

Results: 1 Jaouad Gharib MAR 2:08:31

2 Julio Rey ESP 2:08:38

3 Stefano Baldini ITA 2:09:14

4 Alberto Chaíça POR 2:09:25

5 Shigeru Aburaya JPN 2:09:26

6 Daniele Caimmi ITA 2:09:29

7 Ian Syster RSA 2:10:17

8 Michael Rotich KEN 2:10:35

9 Hendrick Ramaala RSA 2:10:37

10 Atsushi Sato JPN 2:10:38

11 Lee Bong-Ju KOR 2:10:38

12 Tsuyoshi Ogata JPN 2:10:39

13 Rachid El Ghanmouni MAR 2:10:56

14 Viktor Röthlin SUI 2:11:14

15 Samson Ramadhani TAN 2:11:21

16 José Manuel Martínez ESP 2:11:31

17 Lee Troop AUS 2:11:46

18 Rachid Ziar ALG 2:11:58

19 Ambesa Tolosa ETH 2:12:19

20 Luc Krotwaar NED 2:12:28

21 Koji Shimizu JPN 2:13:19

22 Alberico Di Cecco ITA 2:13:36

23 Ruggero Pertile ITA 2:13:45

24 Nikólaos Polías GRE 2:13:53

25 Larbi Zéroual FRA 2:14:29

26 Ashebir Demissie ETH 2:14:32

27 Asaf Bimro ISR 2:14:52

28 Juan Carlos Cardona COL 2:14:52

29 Joachim Nshimirimana BDI 2:14:57

30 Gert Thys RSA 2:15:00

31 Mustapha Riyad BRN 2:15:20

32 Kevin Collins USA 2:15:38

33 Karl Johan Rasmussen NOR 2:16:00

34 Hakim Bagy FRA 2:16:06

35 Andrew Letherby AUS 2:16:12

36 Toni Bernadó AND 2:16:19

37 Ahmed Adam Saleh QAT 2:16:31

38 Khalid Skah MAR 2:16:34

39 Clint Verran USA 2:16:42

40 Lee Myong-Seun KOR 2:16:46

41 Rod De Highden AUS 2:16:56

42 Philippe Rémond FRA 2:17:35

43 Dawit Terefa ETH 2:17:53

44 Yusuf Zepak TUR 2:18:02

45 Ernest Ndjissipou CAF 2:18:06 NR

46 Mytahar Echchadi MAR 2:18:12

47 Keith Dowling USA 2:18:17

48 Alberto Juzdado ESP 2:18:34

49 Mathias Ntawulikura RWA 2:18:44

50 José Ernani Palalia MEX 2:20:03

51 Nick Harrison AUS 2:20:16

52 Ji Young-Joon KOR 2:20:21

53 Migidio Bourifa ITA 2:21:12

54 Carlos Mario Grisales COL 2:22:34

55 Shane Nankervis AUS 2:23:12

56 Vasiliy Medvedev UZB 2:23:39

57 Foaad Ali Abubaker QAT 2:23:40

58 Julián Berrio COL 2:24:03

59 Roman Kejžar SLO 2:24:20

60 Driss El Himer FRA 2:24:23

61 Jumah Omar Al-Noor QAT 2:24:33

62 John Nada Saya TAN 2:25:49

63 Ser-Od Bat-Ochir MGL 2:26:39 NR

64 Jimmy Hearld USA 2:26:59

65 Jussi Utriainen FIN 2:29:03

66 Francisco Javier Cortés ESP 2:29:53

67 Mpesela Ntlotsoeu LES 2:30:44

68 Sokhibdjan Charipov TJK 2:31:29

69 Carlos Almeida CPV 2:33:31

Kemal Tuvaklyyev TKM DNF

João N'Tyamba ANG DNF

Christopher Cheboiboch KEN DNF

Frederick Cherono KEN DNF

William Kiplagat KEN DNF

Ambrose Makau KEN DNF

Omar Daher Ghadid DJI DNF

Matt O'Dowd GBR DNF

Tobias Hiskia NAM DNF

Ayele Setegne ISR DNF

Zebedayo Bayo TAN DNF

Kim Yi-Yong KOR DNF

Ryan Shay USA DNF

Josiah Thugwane RSA DNF

Ezael Thlobo RSA DNF

Moges Taye ETH DNF

Gezahegn Abera ETH DNF

Alejandro Gómez ESP DNF

Tereje Wodajo ETH DNF

Mostafa El Damaoui MAR DNF

Benoit Zwierzchlewski FRA DNS

Meso Ntala COD DNS

Alain Nkulu COD DNS

Mwenze Kalombo COD DNS

Papy Ilunga COD DNS

2:10:39 Paris

4 Apr 1999

2:10:40 Real Berlin

29 Sep 2002

Results: 1 Raymond Kipkoech KEN 2:06:47

2 Simon Biwott KEN 2:06:49

3 Vincent Kipsos KEN 2:06:52

4 Boniface Usisivu KEN 2:07:50

5 Jimmy Muindi KEN 2:08:25

6 Kazuhiro Matsuda JPN 2:10:31

7 José Ernani Palalia MEX 2:10:39

8 Moses Tanui KEN 2:10:40

9 Elijah Mutai KEN 2:10:41

10 Mark Yatich KEN 2:10:55

11 Ezael Thlobo RSA 2:11:08

12 Oscar Fernández ESP 2:11:11

13 Joseph Kahugu KEN 2:11:20

14 Alberto Chaíça POR 2:12:02

15 Hailu Negussie ETH 2:12:27

16 Ronaldo da Costa BRA 2:12:52

17 Néstor García URU 2:13:10

18 Domingos Castro POR 2:13:23

19 Shin-ichi Watanabe JPN 2:13:25

20 Joseph Ngolepus KEN 2:14:36

21 Neo Molema RSA 2:14:49

22 Mitsuhiro Anjo JPN 2:14:52

23 Martin Beckmann GER 2:16:07

24 Gabriel Garín ESP 2:16:09

25 Nobuhiko Chiba JPN 2:16:50

26 Muneyuki Ojima JPN 2:17:04

27 Uli Steidl GER 2:17:12

28 Diego Colorado COL 2:17:51

29 Tadayuki Ojima JPN 2:18:11

"Paul Tergat: "Ritzenwho?""

- ron clark in 1964: billy who?

This doesn't change my opinion at all. The last 3 years have averaged a 1:04:58 split, and the last 7 years a 1:04:18 split. Only once was it more than several seconds under 1:04. I know those times are fast, given it's NYC. But if Ritz is feeling fit and confident, then he's too talented to bow out of seriously competing, because of a 1:04+ opening pace. This is unless of course, he plans on running a 2:09 by coming back on the leaders later race.

My main contention, is Ritz shouldn't strategically eliminate going for a 2:09 and/or trying to win. From what I can tell, he will go for it, in one way or another.

2h10'10"

Ritz should go out around 1:04:30-1:04:45 regardless of what everyone else is doing (assuming no adverse conditions like heat or wind). That's 2:09-2:09:30 pace, plenty fast enough to keep him in the game even if the lead is sub-1:04, and not so slow that he can't pick off the dead meat and reel in the leaders. He has 13.1 miles to work with, and the Central Park hills in front of him to neutralize the over-eager.

On that course in particular, I think it's far better to be the hunter than the hunted.

Just ask Rod Dixon and Geoff Smith.

I've said it a thousand times, and I'll say it again. I have NEVER heard a marathoner -- especially a marathon virgin -- say after the race, "Gosh, I really wish I had run that first five or ten miles faster."

Ritz seems to me to be smart enough not to blow up, but it's happened to many, many great runners that lacked the patience necessary for a marathon.

wow malmo, you happened to pick out ten races which went counter to my claim. but you didn't put up the ones that supported it. makes no sense at all.

and nevermind the fact you aren't normalizing for the field either. nyc typically has 4/5 or less of the elites that the other marathons i mentioned have.

DNS

malmo wrote:

2000 1:03:08 (15+ under 1:04:14) 1) 2:10:09 El Mouaziz 10) 2:17:02 Kagwe

El Mouaziz absolutely wrang out the pack that year. He threw in surge after surge and wasted everyone away, helping to explain the huge spread in times, however, most importantly 1:03 halfway at NY is insanity, and there was a stiff (10 MPH) north wind in their faces for most of the race. Thugwane was the only one even close to him at the half.

That El Mouaziz survived it was truly impressive. What is interesting, is that El Mouaziz split 1:04:26 the previous year and finished 7th, and apparently thought that was too slow. (Note the slow splits of previous champions Kagwe and Silva.)

Name _________ Place Time ___10K __HalfMar_20M ____Pace/Mile

EL MOUAZIZ _________ 1 2:10:09 30:26 1:03:08 1:36:51 4:58

JAPHET KOSGEI______ 2 2:12:30 30:27 1:03:34 1:38:08 5:03

SHEM KORORIA_______ 3 2:12:33 30:25 1:04:05 1:39:40 5:03

ELIJAH KORIR _________4 2:13:00 30:26 1:04:16 1:39:52 5:04

ABRAHAM ASSEFA____ 5 2:13:16 30:27 1:04:13 1:40:24 5:05

JOSIA THUGWANE______6 2:15:25 30:26 1:03:19 1:39:06 5:10

YASUAKI YAMAMOTO___7 2:15:37 30:27 1:04:42 1:41:49 5:10

SIMON BOR __________ 8 2:16:23 30:27 1:03:47 1:39:56 5:12

MATHIAS NTAWURIKURA 9 2:16:26 30:26 1:03:54 1:40:07 5:12

JOHN KAGWE_________10 2:17:02 30:26 1:05:07 1:42:27 5:13

KOJI SHIMIZU ________ 11 2:18:55 30:26 1:03:47 1:39:56 5:18

SHADRACK HOFF _____ 12 2:18:57 30:26 1:03:35 1:39:10 5:18

MARCO ORSI ________ 13 2:20:09 33:06 1:08:49 1:45:47 5:20

GERMAN SILVA _______14 2:20:41 30:26 1:05:02 1:42:15 5:22

JOSEPH MERENG______15 2:20:54 30:27 1:04:06 1:41:24 5:22

BENEDICT KIMONDIU __ 16 2:21:27 30:23 1:03:35 1:42:27 5:23

Azuza Forever wrote:

DNS

I'll second that, especially if Ritz gets within 100 meters of a soccer ball.

2:09:05

danzig/mother wrote:

wow malmo, you happened to pick out ten races which went counter to my claim. but you didn't put up the ones that supported it. makes no sense at all.

It was you who cited London "the last few years" as an example of blowups on the scale of NYC. I didn't just post a random list of marathons. Those were the fastest marathons in history 8 deep. It just happens that London 2000, 2001, 2002, 2003, 2004, and 2006 were among the top, which shows that London does not see the "5 minute" blowups that new york does. In fact the only major marathon that sees blowups similar to new york is boston. Both races have hills. Both races are affected by "iffy" weather. Last but not least -- both races have late starting times.

London and Chicago have consistently perfect weather for marathoning. Both courses are flat as a pancake.

On another thread I posted the weather conditions for all of the fastest marathons ever run, to illustrate just how exceptional Gebrselassie's effort was in Berlin this year. If you look at the year by year history at new york you'll find that conditions like you regularly see at Chicago and London are rare at New York. I'll post the NYC historical weather conditions later tonight.

The last 3 NYC marathons the weather has been particularly deceptive. Not warm enough to "seem warm" at the start, but warm enough under the direct sun (62-65) to wreak havoc once the runners got to 1st Avenue (16 miles).

Any word on TV for the NYC Marathon?