Keely in 1:52 Shape?

They will race in the 800m. 600m would be too easy for Femke

Why don't you do it?

Which is why post #1 specifically states "So, for Keely, double the distance, add 6 secs/lap." That's because we have proof, from those two recent races, this metric is not only accurate, but it is also specific only to her.

No mention was made of similar metrics for Jarmila K., Athing Mu, Castor Semenya, Georgia Hunter-Bell, or anyone else. Some were/are sprinter types moving up to the 800, others more distance oriented moving down to the 800. However many seconds you need to add to their 400 prs to project their 800 pace, are specific to each. But whatever those numbers may be, they are of no consequence. Because this hypothetical discussion is only about Keely Hodgkinson.

So, to get this discussion back on the rails, I do agree with ObserverofTrends in post #18 that Keely breaking 1:53.28, this year or any year, is a "moonshot" per his/her quote:

But it's a moonshot that requires she doesn't get hurt, or sick, or overpeak, and perfect conditions with a perfect race, no competitive stress or impedance but enough proximity from her sidekick Werro to be in contact at 400, etc. etc.

I also agree with YorkshireFell in post #11 that Keely is a pure 800 specialist who does not and likely will not ever put down a flat 400 in 47/48 secs. However, Keely's 51.49, plus her 50.10 relay split, indicates her 2nd and 3rd best events would be the 400 and 600. Meaning, if we have to categorize her as an 800/sprinter or an 800/distance runner, it's the former. Which lends further credence to the 400 meter/6.0 sec conversion metric upon which this entire discussion is based.

Thus, the true and only question to ask regarding Keely's outdoor WR potential is simply the following: does her 51.49 indoor 400 performance equate to something close to 50.49 if it was run outdoors on a 400 meter? Similarly, will Keely run a 50-point open 400 sometime this summer -- or split a 49-point on a relay leg, showing similar fitness?

In response to those interested in Keely chasing the 1000 WR, don't hold your breath. She's never run a 1000. In fact, the last time Keely raced a distance longer than 800 was back in 2017 when she ran a 4:30.00/1500.

Yet 800 would be too easy for Keely. Especially since Femke is now injured for the first time!

Yes, against an injured Femke it would be too easy. Once she's back they will race

A great 800m coach once told me that his formula for the womens 800m WR was 2/3 of the 400m + 1/3 of the 1500m and you need to be in shape for both at the same time, not lifetime PR's which could be years apart.

She's just run 51.49 seconds for 400m and yes this was indoors so you can make a case this translates to a faster time outdoors (even though at this speed I don't believe it's a lot) - but let's give her a nice even (and generous) 51.0 potential. Two thirds of that is 33.66 which means gives us 79.61 seconds for a third of her 1500m - a 3min58.8 performance (based on 1.53.27).

To break 1.53 it's a 1500m level of 3.58.0

And for me intuitively that feels about right. If I'm thinking of a fairly talented HS boy aiming to run under 1.53 that was tapping out at 51 seconds, a time comfortably but not far under 4min00 is the requisite endurance/strength needed.

I don't see Keely Hodgkinson running under 4min00 right now. That's the level of Claudia Hollingsworth who just beat GHB in Melbourne. It's not what it used to be (3.58) - but it's still very very good for a female MD runner (basically 20th in the world in 2025). In the case of Hollingsworth shes also just run 8.37 this year.

If Keely runs under 1.54.0 this year it would be a sensational performance which of course would also be certainly the womens true WR if we eliminate Eastern Block doping (JK and Olizarenko from the books).

If you had the slight shame you will let
"Render unto Caesar what is Caesar's"

Keely, Jakob, Luthkenhauss are just your new guignols to save your face with the East african and African domination.

Just look at the other sports more renumerating, you can't do it without the AFROS.

Look at the current teams of Brazil and Italia suffering in Football because of lack of AFRO talents, compared to nations like France and Spain.

Lutkenhauss is a mythe created by American after being ashamed by Wanyonyi and Sedjati.

Appears to be a very precise formula for an 800 prediction -- presuming the athlete has raced 1500s recently, thus an endurance-trained 800 specialist.

Which Keely is not.

Since her last 1500 was 4:30.00 some nine years ago, can confidently state this formula does not apply to her nor any other sprint-trained 800 specialists.

So, again, the only true and meaningful question to ask:

Maintaining the (400 PR + 6.00 secs) x 2 = 800 PR "Keely Equation" . . .

Do Keely's indoor pr times of 51.46/400 & 1:54.87/800 translate to outdoor pr times of 50-mid & 1:52-high?

Come July 4th at the Pre Classic Mutola 800, if Keely is in the same kind of fitness -- or better - as she was indoors, can she run something around 1:52.7 - 1:52.8 for a new WR?

Agree. Do people even run here? Or is it it just a bunch of nerds that look at stats and forget how the legs feel 50 minutes after an all out 800?

Olizarenko, the first 1.53 runner had a totally different profile to Kratochvilova, 50.96 and 3:59.48. Keely doesn't need to feel so bad about her 400m times.

Write this down: Keely will never break 1:54, much less go 1:52. She just isn’t strong enough.

I disagree that she needs to run a sub 4 1500m. 1500m is not her distance. It won’t be in her training program to do this. She’s the best in the world without doing any 1500ms

Tooth Ugg Eels!!!

Not sure why you felt the need to do that wacky conversion from a 400 time. She ran 1:54.87 in the 800, so stick with that time. So how much faster would it have been if it had been run on an outdoor track? Hint - NOT "something in the 1:52s or low-1:53s" as you very incorrectly claimed.

You actually think an indoor 800 is TWO SECONDS slower than an outdoor 800. No, that's not correct at all.

They can race all you like! You think a recently injured Femke who has zero experience (apart from one indoor) in the 800m is going to get anywhere near Keely?

I say this as a Femke fan. She has shown she should stick to the 400m. It’s such a shame she’s now injured.

Well trained 800m runner can take 400 x2.24

50.5 *2.24. 1:53.12

Plenty of ex. At the h.s. boys level.

Keely will go sub 1:54, but not sure she gets WR this summer, will be close- she'll need to hold pace last 150m 56.00, 57.20 maybe