Has Jonathan Gault lost it? His Millrose favorite isn't named Grant Fisher or Cole Hocker — It's.....

Great article by Gault and kudos to Raph for the research. Fantastic field! It's amazing to think the number of sub-8 two-milers might double or even triple after this race.

I think Gault's ranking is fair, although I would put Wolfe ahead of Robinson because Wolfe just beat Robinson by 28 seconds at World XC. Wolfe also got the better of Robinson both indoors and outdoors in Robinson's last semester in the NCAA. Robinson had an excellent showing in Tokyo, but now that Wolfe is healthy and running so well, I like his chances in this race more.

Very difficult to pick a winner, which makes for the most exciting type of race. Kerr being in better shape than he was when he won at Millrose two years ago should definitely be considered. I think the race will boil down to who's in the best position on the last lap, and Kerr just about always seems to put himself in good position.

Fisher's 4:49 has to inspire confidence. I think he will keep the pace honest to try to burn off the kickers, and I think he'll be motivated to do so after losing in Boston. The question is can he do it.

I previously said Hocker is most likely to win, so I'll stick with that. But Strand looked really good in Tallahassee; he is a major threat.

Looking forward to it!

"most talented in the field" "I think he’ll end up as a 3:27/sub 12:50 guy by the end of his career"

As opposed to Cole Hocker who is only a year older and has already run 3:27 and won a
5k world tile in 12:58 (a pretty good sign of being in 12:4x shape)?

I like it !!

I’m inclined to say it’s Hocker @ 7:57.25

Mostly agree with your takes, though I’m going to guess Hocker isn’t as sharp as Strand and Wolfe so I’ll pick those two 1-2 respectively. Hocker third (though he obviously could still win).

Looks good, but a coin flip for Hocker/Fisher and a gap back to 3rd.

In case you haven't read the Raph thread about the quality of 2-mile, here is what he wrote in that thread.

Here is his spreadhseet:

https://1drv.ms/x/c/446633e581e3df09/IQA5m_LcCxQQTqPnTQJgUf_mAYzH750Xx_vQDRx52K6MxD4?e=jwfqvZ

and the thread link:

Kerr? Last time we saw him he was limping around a track in Tokyo. How can he be the favorite?

Mackey is extremely off the mark here. Nobody in this field is breaking 8 minutes is my prediction and there is a zero % chance anybody is going under 7:58. Throwing out figures like that is hilarious.

Casey Comber 4:27.9 for 1800m last year. You need that exact same thing.

JG is the best running reporter in the game. I certainly hope the brojos are paying him enough.

That said, I don't think Fisher is in peak shape now like last year. He was coming off an injury that caused him to just miss out on World XC. He also seems to be re-prioritizing "staying fit for an entire year" and last year's burnout. I expect him to use this race to work on his kick or, at most, 400-600 out (which isn't enough with this field). Top 5 likely but not the win.

My vote is on Hocker (running inspired after losing his American Record in 24 hours) or Beamish (seems to be healthy lately and coming off the steeple win is fit career-wise this year). I think it would be up to Kerr rather than Fisher to push the pace from far enough out to drop Beamish, but if he does that, he gives the win to Hocker.

So, Hocker in a fast race, and Beamish in a slow race. The interesting bet here would be where that dividing line exists? Maybe 7:28ish?

Well, when he shows up indoors Kerr usually wins. That's the overlooked variable on a site obsessed with times.

Kerr didn't run indoors last year while preparing for Grand Slam Track. From 2022 through 2024 he won 5 of 7 indoor races with one second and one fifth.

Three of those races were at Millrose...two victories and a second.

I have no idea how his training has been going. But as a sports bettor for 24 years in Las Vegas I quickly learned to throw out all the subjective noise and rely on big picture variables. They don't work all the time. Plenty often enough to destroy subjectivity alone.

Lemme get this straight, in the same season Jakob ran 7:54.10 (equivalent to 7:19 over 3000m), he ran 3:27.14, 3:43.73, and 4:43.13. Do you seriously think that Hocker or anyone else is capable of anything close to those times right now? In early February? Nope, dreams.

In race as fast this one is likely to be,from early on, people will be running in single file with runners just hanging on. There will be minimal jockeying for position. Fisher will never leave the first lane and nothing will hinder him from running as fast he possibly can.

Yep, Hocker ran 1600 of his 2k at 2 mile race pace then a little dust up for the finish. He looks like his in 7:52-7:54 pace. Kerr is impossible to predict not seeing him roll out his best last year then being hurt. Fisher is probably a little sharper then the UNC boys yet but they'll be out scalping people who are even the slightest off.

Gault seems spot on. But Strand is my pick

Did JG ever "have it"?

This race will be determined by who can hang on to a 60-59 pace. The strength guys are going to push this thing as fast as they can. This is a championship field but in essence its a time trial.

I said a few weeks ago to put the house on Wolfe, and I stand by that, even though I know he's realistically pretty unlikely to win. Here's my take on everyone else:

- Hocker: he's so good but if you bet on him in the regular season you will get burned again and again. He's gonna get broken just before the kick I think.

- Kerr: should be the favorite but no races so far and a big question mark since Tokyo. I don't love his chances. Maybe if he'd raced once already I'd be more likely to bet on him.

- Fisher: a wild card, he beat Hocker in the kick last year but I think this race will go more like the year before for him.

- Strand: too inconsistent right now. His mettle has never been tested against a field of this caliber.

- Robinson: will never win, but he's a dark horse to run like 8:03 to end up on the podium. We will all be confused about this again.

I also don't think it'll be sub 8 like everyone is saying, or maybe 7:59 at the fastest. Jakob's outdoor WR is safe. People don't have the guts.

1. Wolfe 8:01

2. Kerr 8:01

3. Robinson 8:01

4. Fisher 8:02

5. Strand 8:02

6. Hocker 8:03

I can't wait to be proved really wrong and Hocker runs 7:56 somehow

I strongly suspect that this race will suffer from the "arcadia 3200 effect", where too many cooks in the kitchen means no one serves up something special. Even in a non-championship year, winning over a field like this takes precedence over a fast time, and I believe everyone's race strategy will reflect that.

Additionally, in something as short as the 2 mile there is no longer any enormous fitness gap between the top distance guys. The best 1500 runners have been forced to develop a strong base because of the last few years of racing. I think several of the guys here are in shape to run between 7:57-8:01, but I highly doubt that will actually happen.

My prediction: Good first 1k at around 2:30 flat, followed by a lag in the pace and then a tremendous last 800 with the winner finishing in around 8:03.