I'm at a pretty similar fitness level (just ran a 2:58 a few months ago in Toronto in pretty warm weather), so maybe I'll chime in.
I think for me, closing a good marathon feels a lot like "I know and believe that I can do it, but my legs are telling me I can't and that makes me innately worried." I end up picking up the pace ever so slightly (5s/mi ish) in the last 2ish miles to "get it over with before I blow up", even though I know in my head that I have enough 70+mi weeks not to be worried. I think being able to do that is a good sign.
My bad races have usually been due to muscle cramps (warm weather or going out too fast), so I haven't experienced any other mode of failure haha. I think if you feel like it's physically impossible to speed up, then you're probably close to a blowup? I don't think it usually makes sense to speed up if you're on target, but it feels good to be able to.
Good luck! 2:55 is an impressive goal and level :)