I mean it could - but here is the thing. After 2024 did anyone think we would be sitting here at the end of 2025 and not only would the WR be intact, but the years best performance would be over half a second away from that time set 13 years ago? (And moving in the wrong direction from 24?)
The simple logic is that in a non championship year there’s a better chance it goes down but I don’t know about that. Those guys were still focussed on it this year and as we know, there are only so many years even the very best on the planet have to go for it (and it’s not many). I think either way Hoey can make the jump and run under 1.42 (I mean Hoppel did so why not) but my concern with him is when is the band going to snap because he seems incapable of taking it easy on himself. I did hear that World Indoors is not on his docket in 2026 so at least that’s a start.
I still believe this is the case - with the depth of talent here now capable of sub 1.42, assembling them all in the same race may not be the best idea. Needs a smaller, targeted race with only one contender and a great pacer.
I think the late champs was problematic last year. No such problem this year. I agree with your assessment that there has to be a clear path for an 800m WR probably, but last year everyone did defer to EW at Monaco. I could see that again…
The 800m is set up nicely for EW as its heavily frontloaded. The best guys can be in peak shape in early July and really theres plenty of type to regroup until September. Its almost like a quasi indoors to outdoors season.
The late champs were problematic for those who were flim-flammed into taking part in Michael Johnson’s grift.
My opinion is that he is on a lot more than bicarb. In the history of the sport there has never been anyone that has the same progression as Hoey. That said, he could break the record but it will then be a tarnished record.
You are right he is a very different type of runner to Rudisha and Kipketer but where does the statement "substantially faster than them at 600m" come from?
How would you possibly know that? What is that based on? Kipketers peak was '96 and '97. Rudisha 2010-2012 - show me the 600m races for both of those guys (far different from even a training timetrial) where they really went for a time like Josh Hoey did yesterday (because he left it all out there).
Leaving it all.out there in a 600m = finishing and keeping on jogging and celebrating and not gasping for air when interviewed? Whatever happened to collapsing at the line and needing a few moment before being able to utter coherent responses? Can ask the same for Rudisha's WR.
He could in a paced race but he is a rare runner who even if he does - I still won't pick him to win a worlds. He doesn't have the gear change like other 800m runners have and they would just key off him like USA.
He does have an amazing ability to hold 50 or sub 50 pace, maybe the best ever at that.
My opinion is that he is on a lot more than bicarb. In the history of the sport there has never been anyone that has the same progression as Hoey. That said, he could break the record but it will then be a tarnished record.
I think it's important to overlaid the improvement with the number of races he did in those seasons and note how he struggle to get thru an entire season during those years. Yes, I know the number of coaching changes didn't help, but the fact is that's its hard to run fast if you can only run 3 times and your season is done by May like he did in 2023, especially for an athlete like Josh who thrives off racing.
While I'll agree that every sudden improvement needs to be looked at and questioned, putting things in to perspective helps.
I can’t help but feel that those who believe he’s clean are naive and deluded beyond hope. Like, seriously, of all people to approach the sport, JOSH HOEY is a historically significant, never-before-seen talent? Do they realize how absurd it actually is?
Its baking soda!!! Ban it for what?? Lets ban better tracks, shoes while we are at it smh. Stop hating! Do you think N.B.A players should shoot in a peach basket or wear Pro- Ked sneakers? Leather helmets for football players? Its 2025. Help promote the sport.
I can’t help but feel that those who believe he’s clean are naive and deluded beyond hope. Like, seriously, of all people to approach the sport, JOSH HOEY is a historically significant, never-before-seen talent? Do they realize how absurd it actually is?
Sorry, you're just as naive and deluded by thinking that there are no generational talents. It's so much easier to just paint everyone as dirty. It's intellectually lazy and honestly boring. Learn to live with a bit of ambiguity in your life. It will make you a better person.
I can’t help but feel that those who believe he’s clean are naive and deluded beyond hope. Like, seriously, of all people to approach the sport, JOSH HOEY is a historically significant, never-before-seen talent? Do they realize how absurd it actually is?
Sorry, you're just as naive and deluded by thinking that there are no generational talents. It's so much easier to just paint everyone as dirty. It's intellectually lazy and honestly boring. Learn to live with a bit of ambiguity in your life. It will make you a better person.
Occam's Razor to a T.
It is FAR more likely that Josh Hoey is eating his Wheaties in the morning ala Jose Canseco than it is he is a generational talent.
In fact, I don't think anyone ever has said he's generational. Sumner was the generational 800 talent- what happened when he got off the sauce in college?
The mental midgetry here is strong. I don’t think you understand Occam or his razor. You also don’t understand generational talent.
1:12-1:42-3:29 has never been seen before. Never. He’s a generational talent for having accomplished just that.
Do you have any evidence that Sumner was on the sauce? That he then went off the sauce? Do you understand how many unfounded assumptions that you’re making? Yes, many, if not most are dirty. Tools like AI and bio passport are going to make it clear just how many. But you’re painting with a broad brush, not trimming with a razor.
I can’t help but feel that those who believe he’s clean are naive and deluded beyond hope. Like, seriously, of all people to approach the sport, JOSH HOEY is a historically significant, never-before-seen talent? Do they realize how absurd it actually is?
He very well could be on some stuff, but there may be a natural explanation for the sudden improvement. Based on what I have read, prior to Rinaldi he was a 400/800 guy who just couldn’t get the mileage or quality quite right with his other coaches. He has wheels, he has split 45 in a relay, and could probably still break 46 in the open 4. His coaches prior to Rinaldi trained him as a long sprinter instead of a true mid distance guy. It was Rinaldi who upped his mileage and intensity, and thats why Josh has taken a huge chunk of time off his PRs and is able to race so much more. The long sprinter approach with the prior coaches didn’t work, but the miler training is working for him.