She'll meet and fall in love with a 27 year old upperclassman this year and will decide to settle down and have 8 kids once he graduates. Also, her name is Jane Hedengren.
All of them. She will hold every CR from 800 to 10,000 by the time she graduates if she doesn't decide to go pro before then.
She’s not going to run 1:57.7 or 4:00. The 800 meters she ran indicate she can’t run too much faster than 60 seconds for a 400m. She’s a great runner but she’s not going to be an NCAA Sifan Hassan.
Jane Hedengen is a generational talent like Mary Cain but with an outstanding support system, she is in a better position to succeed than any of the pre mentioned top 10 5000m high school runners. Her support system is that of a pro and keeping her healthy so she can progress is a top priority.
Cain was a victim of a psychopath coach, but most distance runners are provided with a good support system, and keeping a runner healthy is always a primary goal.
Cain was also the victim of whoever her support system, likely her parents/family, was in New York. Sending off a daughter 3000 mi away from home with no peer support system (such as a group of college teammates) particularly for someone who was by all appearances a bit socially awkward was a mistake. That's before we even approach any coach issues.
All of them. She will hold every CR from 800 to 10,000 by the time she graduates if she doesn't decide to go pro before then.
She’s not going to run 1:57.7 or 4:00. The 800 meters she ran indicate she can’t run too much faster than 60 seconds for a 400m. She’s a great runner but she’s not going to be an NCAA Sifan Hassan.
Her career will be defined by how "fast" she gets in terms of finishing a race. Even under the best of circumstances she will have trouble even making US teams if she can't finish because the finishers will run her down. She's not going to be able to run away from everyone.
No I didn't discover Jane HEDENGEN but after hearing one of the BroJo say "she may not improve, let's not assume she going to be a world beater". If she stays healthy, I do think Jane in:
2026 will run low 14:40 and sub 30:30, she will set 3000, 5000, and 10000m CR or force someone to shatter them to beat her...
2027 be the first American to run sub 30 minute track 10,000m if NOONE does it in 2026.
2028 be competing for a lower medal in the Olympic 10,000m
I think if she's healthy (which I think she will be) that she will have an amazing THREE upcoming years.
Who is Hedengen? I don’t see any performances for her. Who is Noone? I don’t see any performances for her? Who are these people?
She’s not going to run 1:57.7 or 4:00. The 800 meters she ran indicate she can’t run too much faster than 60 seconds for a 400m. She’s a great runner but she’s not going to be an NCAA Sifan Hassan.
Her career will be defined by how "fast" she gets in terms of finishing a race. Even under the best of circumstances she will have trouble even making US teams if she can't finish because the finishers will run her down. She's not going to be able to run away from everyone.
It doesn’t work that way. Success for her will come from grinding from the front and gapping runners. Just like Valby, she’ll never have a big kick.
During her senior year, no one was running her down and it will be the same way in college.
Jane Hedengen is a generational talent like Mary Cain but with a outstanding support system, she is in a better position to succeed than any of the pre mentioned top 10 5000m high school runners. Her support system is that of a pro and keeping her healthy so she can progress is a top priority.
We don't know.
There are too any variables in a young athlete's development, even WITH an 'outstanding support system.' It is EXTREMELY rare for a female HS prodigy to even qualify for the Olympics.
There is not going to be a college 800m record from her but sub-4 1500m I absolutely expect, because she has already run 4:23 in the mile. That's already the equivalent of 4:03.5-4:04 1500m. She doesn't have the speed to run 1:57 right now, not close, but 1500-10000m she can run fast times and I expect her, with health, to be running low 14s in a few years. She just has a different stride from the other female phenoms and you could see that in her NXN championship.
There is not going to be a college 800m record from her but sub-4 1500m I absolutely expect, because she has already run 4:23 in the mile. That's already the equivalent of 4:03.5-4:04 1500m. She doesn't have the speed to run 1:57 right now, not close, but 1500-10000m she can run fast times and I expect her, with health, to be running low 14s in a few years. She just has a different stride from the other female phenoms and you could see that in her NXN championship.
The biggest predictor of future success is how close you are to that top level. Mary Cain is the cautionary tale, but Mary Decker-Slaney (and Athing Mu for a while) are the other side. Sub-15 in HS and was honestly closer to the level of making a team (14:40-5) than her HS peers. Tuohy was great but she didn’t hit that sort of fitness until a couple year later and unfortunately looks stalled from there. While Vipam might be getting ahead of things, there is reason to believe she can be a dominant NCAA athlete this year or the next. We’ll see about the pro ranks of sub-14:25 and sub-30.
There is not going to be a college 800m record from her but sub-4 1500m I absolutely expect, because she has already run 4:23 in the mile. That's already the equivalent of 4:03.5-4:04 1500m. She doesn't have the speed to run 1:57 right now, not close, but 1500-10000m she can run fast times and I expect her, with health, to be running low 14s in a few years. She just has a different stride from the other female phenoms and you could see that in her NXN championship.
The biggest predictor of future success is how close you are to that top level. Mary Cain is the cautionary tale, but Mary Decker-Slaney (and Athing Mu for a while) are the other side. Sub-15 in HS and was honestly closer to the level of making a team (14:40-5) than her HS peers. Tuohy was great but she didn’t hit that sort of fitness until a couple year later and unfortunately looks stalled from there. While Vipam might be getting ahead of things, there is reason to believe she can be a dominant NCAA athlete this year or the next. We’ll see about the pro ranks of sub-14:25 and sub-30.
She'll get smoked by Africans 3+ years her senior. They are certainly more driven.
She’s not going to run 1:57.7 or 4:00. The 800 meters she ran indicate she can’t run too much faster than 60 seconds for a 400m. She’s a great runner but she’s not going to be an NCAA Sifan Hassan.
If anyone earns the moniker NCAA Sifan Hassan over the next two years, it will be Doris Lemngole or Angelina Napoleon.
Jane Hedengren most likely will never develop a kick to win International Championships but Almaz Ayana win multiple titles with no kick. Jane has the speed already to eventually lower her 5000m on and employ the same tactics Almaz did in the 5000 and 10000m. While it's likely she wouldn't drop everyone she would drop enough to be a medal contender. Her training should be geared towards those tactics for the next few years
Jane Hedengren most likely will never develop a kick to win International Championships but Almaz Ayana win multiple titles with no kick. Jane has the speed already to eventually lower her 5000m on and employ the same tactics Almaz did in the 5000 and 10000m. While it's likely she wouldn't drop everyone she would drop enough to be a medal contender. Her training should be geared towards those tactics for the next few years
Her career will be defined by how "fast" she gets in terms of finishing a race. Even under the best of circumstances she will have trouble even making US teams if she can't finish because the finishers will run her down. She's not going to be able to run away from everyone.
It doesn’t work that way. Success for her will come from grinding from the front and gapping runners. Just like Valby, she’ll never have a big kick.
During her senior year, no one was running her down and it will be the same way in college.
If she'll never have a big kick, she likely won't be all that successful internationally and even nationally. I wasn't talking about college.
Break aways have happened more than you think, it's just the current crop of athletes lost the courage to try but:
John Ngugi did in the Olympic 5000m
Hicham did it in the Olympic 1500m
Samuel Wanjiru did it in the Olympic Marathon
Joan Benoit did it in the Olympic Marathon
Almaz Ayana did it in the Olympic 10000
and definitely others, so if an athlete is willing & able to drop a fast enough spilt they can break away and hold onto to WIN or medal 🏅🥇
yes because she realllly needs to be thinking about running away from the competition on the world stage. esp when she's 30+ seconds behind the other top teenagers in the world.
If we move down to steeple, 2 mile and 1 mile and equivalent, only Addy Wiley (indoor), Elise Cranny, Angelina Napoleon and again Cain from among 40-50 athletes have made US teams.
Amazingly, in the whole record list, only Tuohy has won an ncaa title. (Wiley won NAIA).
Assuming all healthy, someone could run 14:40 at 5000 and still not get a team spot behind Houlihan, Cranny, Schweizer, Kelati, Andrews, Monson, Purrier and Valby.
Your thoughts are bold, will be fun to follow.
Except all eyes are on the next Olympic team and Cranny, Andrews, Schweizer, Purrier and Houlihan will be too old by then as more and more Janes start entering the picture.
Break aways have happened more than you think, it's just the current crop of athletes lost the courage to try but:
John Ngugi did in the Olympic 5000m
Hicham did it in the Olympic 1500m
Samuel Wanjiru did it in the Olympic Marathon
Joan Benoit did it in the Olympic Marathon
Almaz Ayana did it in the Olympic 10000
and definitely others, so if an athlete is willing & able to drop a fast enough spilt they can break away and hold onto to WIN or medal 🏅🥇
Comparing her to those you have is simply stupid. She's never going to be at that level and probably not even within the US. College yes. Beyond that very unlikely barring more demonstration of a solid close.
Break aways have happened more than you think, it's just the current crop of athletes lost the courage to try but:
John Ngugi did in the Olympic 5000m
Hicham did it in the Olympic 1500m
Samuel Wanjiru did it in the Olympic Marathon
Joan Benoit did it in the Olympic Marathon
Almaz Ayana did it in the Olympic 10000
and definitely others, so if an athlete is willing & able to drop a fast enough spilt they can break away and hold onto to WIN or medal 🏅🥇
Comparing her to those you have is simply stupid. She's never going to be at that level and probably not even within the US. College yes. Beyond that very unlikely barring more demonstration of a solid close.
....
To all the posters limiting Jane's potential in her career. In 2024 if any of us was asked would an American high school girl:
run a 4:23 mile, 8:40.0 3000m, 9:17 two mile, and 5000m in 14:57.9 EVERYONE would have said NO WAY, never gonna happen
OR
a 16 yr old American would run 1:42.2 in the 800m many would have her their life saving it wouldn't happen.
POV: never say never in T & F, even if it's just a 1% chance of it happening