I think he has a real shot at 2:03 high. I made the argument after Boston that he was in 2:04 low shape at worst in a Valencia type race. Boston conditions were good, but unless you have a hurricane behind you, it's at least a minute slower than Valencia. The guys he was with in Boston are all 2:02/2:03 guys, and he was pushing the pace late into the race.
The article makes it sound like this was essentially a perfect training block too. He got a femoral stress reaction before the 2024 Olympic Trials, a torn quad before the Olympics, and a strained quad before the 2025 Houston Half, and ran great after all of them. Now he's put up the highest mileage of his life and feels great. Cutting 60s off your pb is tough at his level, but when the WR is 2:00, it's definitely not impossible. Didn't he cut it by more than a minute to run what he did at Boston?
I'll add the caveat that maybe he's had to back off in training previously due to injury, and letting his body recover could've helped him run better. My gut feeling is that's not likely, but it's more than possible. 2:04 low is more likely than 2:03, and 2:05 low is likelier still, but he's on a fast course, and he only has to pb by 30s to cut a minute off the AR. I think the faster course + the greatest buildup of his life will be worth at least 1s/mile compared to Boston.
I think he has a real shot at 2:03 high. I made the argument after Boston that he was in 2:04 low shape at worst in a Valencia type race. Boston conditions were good, but unless you have a hurricane behind you, it's at least a minute slower than Valencia. The guys he was with in Boston are all 2:02/2:03 guys, and he was pushing the pace late into the race.
The article makes it sound like this was essentially a perfect training block too. He got a femoral stress reaction before the 2024 Olympic Trials, a torn quad before the Olympics, and a strained quad before the 2025 Houston Half, and ran great after all of them. Now he's put up the highest mileage of his life and feels great. Cutting 60s off your pb is tough at his level, but when the WR is 2:00, it's definitely not impossible. Didn't he cut it by more than a minute to run what he did at Boston?
I'll add the caveat that maybe he's had to back off in training previously due to injury, and letting his body recover could've helped him run better. My gut feeling is that's not likely, but it's more than possible. 2:04 low is more likely than 2:03, and 2:05 low is likelier still, but he's on a fast course, and he only has to pb by 30s to cut a minute off the AR. I think the faster course + the greatest buildup of his life will be worth at least 1s/mile compared to Boston.
Let’s not forget his recent half marathon PRs and the 20k national record. The guy is in shape relative to “2:07+ Mantz.” I appreciate that you pointed out that Boston runs slower than Valencia. Boston is not a fast course if there’s no tailwind. Had Chicago been back in April, Mantz would’ve been sub-2:05 for sure. He’s certainly capable.
This post was edited 17 seconds after it was posted.
The fastest time on a record-eligible course by a man not of recent African ancestry or PED allegations is 2:04:56. That seems very doable. 2:05:38 seems like a done deal for me.
The fastest time on a record-eligible course by a man not of recent African ancestry or PED allegations is 2:04:56. That seems very doable. 2:05:38 seems like a done deal for me.
There's a reason why Boston doesn't count and 2:04:58 isn't the record.
It should count. It counted for a very long time, and until someone (hopefully Mantz) goes under 2:04:58 there will always be an asterisk. I hope he does it & ends the debate.
There's a reason why Boston doesn't count and 2:04:58 isn't the record.
It should count. It counted for a very long time, and until someone (hopefully Mantz) goes under 2:04:58 there will always be an asterisk. I hope he does it & ends the debate.
If he has good weather + a good group he will run 2:03:47.
There's a reason why Boston doesn't count and 2:04:58 isn't the record.
It should count. It counted for a very long time, and until someone (hopefully Mantz) goes under 2:04:58 there will always be an asterisk. I hope he does it & ends the debate.
If the weather is perfect and the leaders don't go out in 1:01, I think he has a shot with a perfect race to break 2:04. More likely, he will slightly fade over the last 10K after being on pace for it for over 20 miles and finish in mid 2:04s.
The fastest time on a record-eligible course by a man not of recent African ancestry or PED allegations is 2:04:56. That seems very doable. 2:05:38 seems like a done deal for me.
Funny you mention that, I was just going to say that we should have all of these fast track athletes run on cinders and then see if they are fast anymore.