I love the approach here. The problem is that every race has different weather conditions and different intra-race dynamics. For instance, if you solo the last 3k in difficult conditions, that is going to be worth a lot more than drafting 4k and then hammering. If you have no competition, you're going to tend not to go all out. In Hocker's case, his last 2k (5:05) is nothing special because no one was pushing the pace and he knew that all he had to do was stick within a few seconds of the leaders by 400m and he'd win. He was 12th at the bell. Nonetheless, he didn't even have to push the last 100m that hard because he'd already dusted everyone by 50m to go. The question for Jakob would be whether he could drop Hocker the last 200m. At Budapest in 2023, Jakob ran 13.36, 13.36, 12.89, 12.95, and 13.25 for his last five hundred meter splits (65.81) in his 13:11. From 4700m to 4900m, he ran 25.84, awfully good. Hocker only dropped under 15s per 100m the last 500m and he was not working that hard until the last 200m. His last 5 100m splits were 14.84, 14.01, 13.11, 12.99, and 12.51 (67.46). So, Jakob was over 1.5s faster the last 500m, but it's not entirely clear that Jakob could run 12.5 at the end of a 5000m. It is the last 200m where he has been beaten in the 1500m repeatedly now, even in Hocker's 3:27.65 race. Hocker closed in 12.5 in a 12:58 race after essentially resting until 300m to go. Jakob would have to burn out his kick enough to win with a 26 (13).
Hocker ran 52 at the end of a sub 13 race. So cope all you want. Jakob wouldn’t have won that race the way the field ran it even if he hadn’t been injured. Jakob would have needed a very different race to be able to win. Because his kick isn’t as good as Hocker’s in that type of race.
You can rationalize it any way you choose but Hocker blasted the last lap, especially the home straight, running 12:58. Jakob has never done that.
As for greatest ever kick… Jakob has a fantastic long finish. But as far as a last lap kick goes, Hocker has an edge.
Agreed. Interestingly, Jakob did his 2:21 in Paris, he didn’t actually lead until the final 200m and in Budapest he had to chase (doper) Katir to the line. When Bekele did it, he took the race by the balls from 2000m out.
Anyway, given that (a) Jakob doesn’t like to front-run 5000m races (unlike the 1500m), adn (b) Hocker tends to peak his fitness at championship finals, I wouldn’t be so sure that Jakob could/would just run away with 2000m to go and even if he did, I’m not sure Hocker would get dropped.
So where did Ingebrigtsen's amazing kick get him in the world's?
2 WC Golds
1 OG Gold
4th at WC at age 18
So you aren't aware that we've just had world championships where he didn't make the final in the 1500 and got thrashed in the 5k. No kick in sight. Game over.
If you just don't WANT that he is a great runner...
He is past tense. Like Nurmi et al. His career is finished. There have been great runners with far better kicks than he has.
You realize 99% of people in these boards simply see your name and immediately downvote and continue on without reading your post.... nobody cares about you or your opinion on these boards so why do you post so much? You seem quite pathetic tbh
Is it harder to run 16:00 going 5:09-5:09-5:09 or 16:10 going 5:39-5:39-4:19? Obviously that’s a little exaggerated, but the point is that a fast 1200m leading into the last lap is taxing just like a fast overall pace is. Jakob’s pace was slower overall but his 600 before the 52.4 in Budapest was 5 seconds faster than Coles 600 before his last lap. That matters! The race being slower doesn’t mean that Jakobs 52 is less impressive because you chose to improperly contextualize how the race actually unfolded
BINGO. People love to point towards Cole’s time but it is kind of misleading. Yes, the first 3000m was in 7:52 but it was even paced. There were no insane surges or gradual acceleration. That is not going to do insane damage. They then let it up and it became a final 400m sprint, a race perfectly tailored towards Hocker who probably has the best acceleration in a 400. But a 400 is just 8% of the race. For context, that is like just 100m of a 1500m, hardly reliable as a data point. A more accurate datapoint is the last 1k and beyond, and Jakob is the greatest in history in that regard. Being able to close in 7:34, 4:55, 2:21, 52-53 seconds requires extreme levels of speed and strength never seen before (other than Bekele).
If you guys think it’s so easy for Hocker to run those splits, let me give you an example. Komen’s 7:20 is about 58.7 seconds per lap. Why couldn’t anyone run as fast as him? I mean it’s only a 1.5 second differential from the 5000m WR. Should be easy peasy. Nope, it’s a fine line to cross. Jakob running 4:55 for the last 2000m is more taxing.
interesting stats. I'd argue that Cole Hocker's final 400m undermines the argument you are trying to make. Jakob has a superb long kick, but has never closed under 53 seconds in a sub 13 race.
One of the most impressive finishes, surprisingly, is Eliud Kipchoge (53.4 last lap in a 12:52 race!).
Jakob closed under 53 seconds im a rave that ended with a 2:21 final K, 4:55 final 2k, and 7:35 3k. I have no doubt in my mind that he would have run under 53 in Tokyo. The final four laps before the bell were pedestrian.
your point about Eliud underscores my point. It is easier to run a fast final 400 when the final 2k leading up to it is in the 5:05 range. Jakob closes as fast when it’s 10 seconds faster. He has the best kick.