With one medal already I could totally see Almgren taking this one out fairly hard. Such an utterly bizarre champs that I wouldn't dare call the winner or top 3 though.
Am I missing something or why are people using the fact that Hocker couldn't make it out of a 3:35 heat without cheating as proof of how fit and strong he is?
Hocker was in the same race where Andreas Almgren solo ran the current world lead of 12:44 in hot conditions, and Hocker finished at like 7th and 13:09. He's shown absolutely nothing special in the 5000 and times would have to be down at the 13:30 range for him to be a real contender.
This post was edited 23 seconds after it was posted.
You're saying without cheating like he cut one of the turns short to run less distance. He obviously was fit enough to make it out of that heat relatively easily he's just not smart with tactics refusing to move from the rail which is why he didn't deserve to make that final. Also a race from June does not by any means show what shape Hocker is in now.
Almgren can grind everyone down to a fine dust if he wants to. He did it in the last 1/4 of the 10km, he will do it to a more extreme extent here from 2-3km in
Am I missing something or why are people using the fact that Hocker couldn't make it out of a 3:35 heat without cheating as proof of how fit and strong he is?
Hocker was in the same race where Andreas Almgren solo ran the current world lead of 12:44 in hot conditions, and Hocker finished at like 7th and 13:09. He's shown absolutely nothing special in the 5000 and times would have to be down at the 13:30 range for him to be a real contender.
He was clearly in great fitness despite his bad tactics. He's also a 7:23 3k runner. And yes, I do expect the winning time to be much closer to 13:30 than 12:44. Every year, people are fooled into thinking the guy who ran 12:3x that year is the favorite for the world/Olympic 5k and it's always won by the 3:26 1500m guy and closely followed by the other sub 3:30 1500m guys (Katir, Kwemoi, etc). Mo Farah made a career winning the 5k being a 3:28 1500m guy disguised as a 10k guy.
According to Oddschecker, Jakob is still the actual betting odds favorite, which strikes me as a bit wild given the egg he laid in the 1500 prelim, but that's clearly where the oddsmakers see the most exposure. Gressier 4-1, Nico 5-1, Grant and Hocker 6-1, Laros 10-1. If you really believe in Kimeli, you can get him at 15-1.
Really? Right now on FanDuel it's Hocker +350, Gressier second at +500, Ingebrigtsen at +650 along with Laros.
Gressier has a legitimate chance to be the 5/10 world champ - I'm not convinced Hocker can finish that much harder than he can and let's not even get started on the difference in tactical acumen/positioning.
"WTF"? Why? Uh, maybe because each of the last 3 global championship 5000m have been around the 13.10 mark which are seen as tactical or "slow" by todays standards to begin with where we have 37 men under 13min00 on the world best list.
Because as was referenced with the SC and 10000m it is blatantly clear that with the insane weather the distance runners are facing - 85 degrees + and 80% + humidity that nobody wants to sacrifice anything in the opening 3/4 of any race?
The SC was 6.01 through 2000m, 8.33 at the end - the slowest final ever at the WC's by about 8 seconds and if it wasn't for Eugene in 2022 at 8.25, it would have been the slowest final by about 18 seconds which as a former steeplechase runner you will immediately know is more than the length of the home straight. The 10000m was the slowest final in history by 54 seconds. Fifty four. The race it just took the mantel from? Helsinki 1983. We haven't seen a mens 1500m go through 800m so slowly since the Rio final 9 years ago and a 3.34 is also the slowest winning time of this decade by oh, I dunno, 5 seconds?
What exactly are you envisioning in this final? 7.52 through the 3000? Sub 12 at 4600 with a 54 last lap to break Choges 12.52.79 CR? If this race was under 13.15 it would honestly be kind of incredible given what we have seen these championships. Sometimes your comments are completely befuddling to put it mildly.
According to Oddschecker, Jakob is still the actual betting odds favorite, which strikes me as a bit wild given the egg he laid in the 1500 prelim, but that's clearly where the oddsmakers see the most exposure. Gressier 4-1, Nico 5-1, Grant and Hocker 6-1, Laros 10-1. If you really believe in Kimeli, you can get him at 15-1.
Really? Right now on FanDuel it's Hocker +350, Gressier second at +500, Ingebrigtsen at +650 along with Laros.
Gressier has a legitimate chance to be the 5/10 world champ - I'm not convinced Hocker can finish that much harder than he can and let's not even get started on the difference in tactical acumen/positioning.
Gressier doing the 5/10 double but not geb or cheptegei would be crazy
Am I missing something or why are people using the fact that Hocker couldn't make it out of a 3:35 heat without cheating as proof of how fit and strong he is?
Hocker was in the same race where Andreas Almgren solo ran the current world lead of 12:44 in hot conditions, and Hocker finished at like 7th and 13:09. He's shown absolutely nothing special in the 5000 and times would have to be down at the 13:30 range for him to be a real contender.
He would certainly contend in a 13:20 race and possibly in a 13:10 race. Remember, he has run around 7:23 in the 3K.
"WTF"? Why? Uh, maybe because each of the last 3 global championship 5000m have been around the 13.10 mark which are seen as tactical or "slow" by todays standards to begin with where we have 37 men under 13min00 on the world best list.
Because as was referenced with the SC and 10000m it is blatantly clear that with the insane weather the distance runners are facing - 85 degrees + and 80% + humidity that nobody wants to sacrifice anything in the opening 3/4 of any race?
Satch I know that science is not one of your strengths. All week long we've known that the conditions will drop for the last three days. Pay attention, please.
Sarcasm/irony? Besides being bad at science, your vocabulary is poor, as well.
Here's the projections for the rest of the meet: Temp and dew point. The women's 5000m won't be fun, but for every other race things will be fine.
9.18 Th Day 6 TODAY just fine for 800m 8:00p W h800 79° 73° NE cloudy 9:45p M s800 75° 73° ENE rain
9.19 F Day 7 lovey dovey 8:00p M h5000 (75.66 rain) 8:45p W s800 (74.66 rain)
9.20 Sa Day 8 5000=not good, 800=just fine 9:30p W 5000 (77.73 rain) 10:20p M 800 (77.73 rain)
9.21 Su Day 9 just fine 7:30p W 800 (79.68) 7:45p M 5000 (79.68)
This post was edited 9 minutes after it was posted.
The implied odds sum to 165%. This is a ridiculous amount of vig. Usually the implied odds for major sports sum to around 102-110%, and it's very rare to even see 140%. Betting on track and field is simply not widespread enough for bookmakers to care about optimizing their odds. It would be a terrible idea to bet with odds as awful as these.
It's very high, but I've never seen implied odds on a futures field this large in the 102% to 110% range. Generally betting into that high of vig would be a bad idea, but on the flip side, I think you can also say they have that built in because they don't really know what they're doing with track odds. Harder to beat with that vig but also a sign there's a higher chance they have an individual line off by more than normal IMO.
The implied odds sum to 165%. This is a ridiculous amount of vig. Usually the implied odds for major sports sum to around 102-110%, and it's very rare to even see 140%. Betting on track and field is simply not widespread enough for bookmakers to care about optimizing their odds. It would be a terrible idea to bet with odds as awful as these.
It's very high, but I've never seen implied odds on a futures field this large in the 102% to 110% range. Generally betting into that high of vig would be a bad idea, but on the flip side, I think you can also say they have that built in because they don't really know what they're doing with track odds. Harder to beat with that vig but also a sign there's a higher chance they have an individual line off by more than normal IMO.
I barely gamble but I really think they just don't know much about track and don't care. I'd wager that most of the wagers go to massive favorites and big names: Jakob, Hocker, Kerr, Sydney, etc. Mostly people betting on name recognition. Not worth it for them to employ a couple track nerds to optimize odds, especially since there's so much potential randomness in some events.
"WTF"? Why? Uh, maybe because each of the last 3 global championship 5000m have been around the 13.10 mark which are seen as tactical or "slow" by todays standards to begin with where we have 37 men under 13min00 on the world best list.
Because as was referenced with the SC and 10000m it is blatantly clear that with the insane weather the distance runners are facing - 85 degrees + and 80% + humidity that nobody wants to sacrifice anything in the opening 3/4 of any race?
Satch I know that science is not one of your strengths. All week long we've known that the conditions will drop for the last three days. Pay attention, please.
Sarcasm/irony? Besides being bad at science, your vocabulary is poor, as well.
Here's the projections for the rest of the meet: Temp and dew point. The women's 5000m won't be fun, but for every other race things will be fine.
9.18 Th Day 6 TODAY just fine for 800m 8:00p W h800 79° 73° NE cloudy 9:45p M s800 75° 73° ENE rain
9.19 F Day 7 lovey dovey 8:00p M h5000 (75.66 rain) 8:45p W s800 (74.66 rain)
9.20 Sa Day 8 5000=not good, 800=just fine 9:30p W 5000 (77.73 rain) 10:20p M 800 (77.73 rain)
9.21 Su Day 9 just fine 7:30p W 800 (79.68) 7:45p M 5000 (79.68)
80 degrees for the 5k final with high humidity is not fine at all
Imagine if Fisher, Young and Mehary just grow some balls and take it out in 12:55.
If they really want to win that's what they do.
If they really want to win they have to hope someone else takes it out in 12:55. There are tons of people in the race who can run faster than 12:55. Anyone who leads the race at that pace will be more fatigued than everyone else and get outkicked. When was the last time someone lead more than 25% of a distance track race on the men's side and won? No one is dominant enough to control a fast pace and hold everyone off. Only Centro lead a long time and won 'recently' (9 years ago) and he was able to do it because the pace was so slow that he wasn't extra fatigued by leading.
Really? Right now on FanDuel it's Hocker +350, Gressier second at +500, Ingebrigtsen at +650 along with Laros.
Gressier has a legitimate chance to be the 5/10 world champ - I'm not convinced Hocker can finish that much harder than he can and let's not even get started on the difference in tactical acumen/positioning.
People don't understand how well cole hocker peaks. He always has his best races at worlds because he has consistently had the best peak in comparison to fitness through the rest of the year.
Cole is the Blatant favorite if the race is 13:20. Even a 13:00 race he is the favorite.
The tactics comment is ridiculous the 5000 is super easy tactically in comparison to the 15.
Satch I know that science is not one of your strengths. All week long we've known that the conditions will drop for the last three days. Pay attention, please.
Sarcasm/irony? Besides being bad at science, your vocabulary is poor, as well.
Here's the projections for the rest of the meet: Temp and dew point. The women's 5000m won't be fun, but for every other race things will be fine.
9.18 Th Day 6 TODAY just fine for 800m 8:00p W h800 79° 73° NE cloudy 9:45p M s800 75° 73° ENE rain
9.19 F Day 7 lovey dovey 8:00p M h5000 (75.66 rain) 8:45p W s800 (74.66 rain)
9.20 Sa Day 8 5000=not good, 800=just fine 9:30p W 5000 (77.73 rain) 10:20p M 800 (77.73 rain)
9.21 Su Day 9 just fine 7:30p W 800 (79.68) 7:45p M 5000 (79.68)
80 degrees for the 5k final with high humidity is not fine at all
Dense. Only it isn't high humidity and the entire race will be in the dark. The conditions will not cause them to slow down, their strategies might. Would it be OK if you actually learned something? I'm giving you the data for a reason.
This post was edited 2 minutes after it was posted.