Realistically there's no way for Tsegay to beat Chebet. But her best tactic would be a super slow race where she starts to kick from 1500m out. Not a sprint.
The race in 2022 is totally meaningless -- Hassan was morbidly out of shape and Chebet was still super young and inexperienced. Tsegay's closing splits in that race would not have resulted in a medal of any color in the championship races that have followed.
"Burning the kick out of them" is an old school strategy that has been refuted for decades. Tsegay just values bravery and showmanship over tactics which she likely deems cowardly.
But ya... Tsegay is the better miler. Sitting and waiting to kick until the last possible moment is the ticket to gold. Battocletti's tactics were nearly perfect.
There is no way Tsegay can beat Chebet. Maybe at the 1500m but not at 5 or 10K. Neither can Kipyegon. I don’t think Kipyegon will be able to shift gears like both Chebet & Battocletti did in the 10K. Especially after the 1500m/5K rounds. The most interesting strategy for me going into the 5K is what Ngetich will do. If I were her I would set out 1K in & just ratchet the pace down to burn as many as possible off. she did this masterfully in GST earlier this year. if she does this the field will pop, then Tsegay will pop. Kipyegon might even pop. Only Chebet & Battocletti will be able to go with her & she’ll get a medal. Your 1-2 in the 5K are Chebet & Battocletti, in that order. 3rd is up for grabs.
This is a terrible take. Kipyegon is not losing to Battocletti. she’s run two WRs this year (1500 and 3K - yes the 807 is the real WR), and is a 1405 runner. in no scenario does she lose to anyone other than Chebet unless there is a fall or something unexpected.
Did you watch that 10K?!?! I am bookmarking this as future evidence.
And if Tsegay holds her fire until the final lap, Chebet & Batocletti would still outkick her. Currently, they are simply that good.
Probably. But Tsegay has run 3;51 this year. Batocletti has a 358 pb. Make Batocletti get antsy so you can sit on her.
I never understand this argument. Having a faster 1500m PR doesn’t really impact top end speed in the final 100m. & Battocletti will not get antsy. She’s gonna ride the Chebet train all day long. & likely get the silver.
Tsegay is a 3:50 1500 runner so her best chance was to make it a 1500 race. She still would not have dropped Chebet like she did in Silesia when Chebet was running an unfamiliar distance. But she could have possibly dropped Battocletti and taken the silver.
Tsegay is a 3:50 1500 runner so her best chance was to make it a 1500 race. She still would not have dropped Chebet like she did in Silesia when Chebet was running an unfamiliar distance. But she could have possibly dropped Battocletti and taken the silver.
Tsegay now faces the same dilemma with Chebet she has faced her entire career with Kipyegon. How do you beat a competitor with a superior kick who you cannot run away from? Unfortunately, there is no proven tactic. But it seems like the best strategy is to push the pace enough to take everyone else out and hope the kicker will not be at their best on that day.
Chebet would’ve won no matter what Tsegay. No one can live with this monstrous sprint in the last 200m that Chebet developed out of no where last year. Meanwhile, Battocletti came out of hiding and her convicted doper dad/coach had their own thing going
What are you talking about “out of nowhere last year?”
She’s always had this kick, reference the 2022 Commonwealth games final below: