This era of fast championship 1500s will come to be a seen as a exception, not the rule. Guys like Tim with bold tactics and Jakob with unconventional 1500 training got the jump on everyone:
Old workouts 2 weeks out (centro): 8x400 in 51 with 4 mins recovery, 7 min rest, 400 in 48.x
However, now people have adjusted their training and strategies to match this and the proliferation of things like double threshold has closed the fitness gap...
New workouts 2 weeks out (laros): 1k in 2:19, 500 in 67.
...and made front running impossible.
I predict this years 1500 will be won with a time above 3:30, and I think that winning times will return to the old 3:34-3:36 range with a fast last 600/800 around/after L/A.
I will concede that the above is reliant on Jakob not acting as a pacemaker for the rest of the field. I will also concede that it is unlikely that he will learn from his past mistakes and will continue to try and "win his own way".
Another workout centro did mid-season: 3x800 in 1:47.1, 1:47.9, 1:49.4 with 15 minutes recovery. I don't think it's crazy to say that there are some guys these days who would struggle to run faster than 1:47.1 but could hang with modern-day championship final pacing.
This era of fast championship 1500s will come to be a seen as a exception, not the rule. Guys like Tim with bold tactics and Jakob with unconventional 1500 training got the jump on everyone:
Old workouts 2 weeks out (centro): 8x400 in 51 with 4 mins recovery, 7 min rest, 400 in 48.x
However, now people have adjusted their training and strategies to match this and the proliferation of things like double threshold has closed the fitness gap...
New workouts 2 weeks out (laros): 1k in 2:19, 500 in 67.
...and made front running impossible.
I predict this years 1500 will be won with a time above 3:30, and I think that winning times will return to the old 3:34-3:36 range with a fast last 600/800 around/after L/A.
I will concede that the above is reliant on Jakob not acting as a pacemaker for the rest of the field. I will also concede that it is unlikely that he will learn from his past mistakes and will continue to try and "win his own way".
Sorry, a lot of "slow" guys will not allow this to happen. So 3:34 - 3:36 is out of the question. Runners like the Norwegians Nordas and Jakob, or the three kenyans, and the americans etc. will start to run fast for the last 800. They do not want to play the cards into the hands of the "sprinters". So sub 3:30 again and again and again.
But they won't. My point above is that with such a close fitness gap in today's aeorbic/strength-centered 1500 it is suicidal to front run. If they are running to win (and if you are in a championship final, why wouldn't you at least have it on your mind?), it makes no sense to front run. You will play the role of a sacrificial pacer to 1200 meters.
Another workout centro did mid-season: 3x800 in 1:47.1, 1:47.9, 1:49.4 with 15 minutes recovery. I don't think it's crazy to say that there are some guys these days who would struggle to run faster than 1:47.1 but could hang with modern-day championship final pacing.
This was in a meet no? He ran three heats
Well, yes it was. But meet or not, the physiological workout doesn't change - 3x800 with around 10-15 mins of recovery.
A note on Tim: He wasn’t fully healthy in 2021. He suffered a hamstring injury late in 2020, and it impacted him into the next season. It didn’t appear he trusted it starting in a dead sprint or finishing in one in a slow race. But in 2020 he ran 3:28.4 with a 53-flat first lap due to bad pacing. He’d be plenty good to dominate pretty much anyone outside of Laros this year, and go toe to toe with the Jakob of ‘23-24 (though slight edge Jakob, but prime Tim beats 2022 Jakob). If he gets Habz’ setup in his prime, I mean who knows I bet he’s pushing 3:26-high.
From what I can tell, Lewandowski does a great job peaking his athletes as evidenced by Nillesen and Laros having outstanding Olympics last year. Tim has generally been pretty good in that regard, but he has been at his healthiest/most consistent since his glory days so we’ll see. In 2022, Katir shoved him out of the way spoiling his finish and he/Jakob were fighting too much for the lead as it was. Comm Ave games a better reflection. 2023, injury in prelims. 2024, he only started running in late-March. This year it seems to be very smooth sailing after some adjustment in the winter.
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A lot of complex combinations of ifs and maybes that might need El Capitan to decipher them, but really there are two HUGE legacy moments at play and it's for Ingebrigtsen and Hocker.
For Jakob, he needs to complete the "set" with a WC gold which puts him alongside El G and Morceli (yes Kiprop but yeah not really) as the only men to have done this. To amplify it, as we all know he hasn't raced once this outdoor season so to come in and beat guys who are race fit, sharp, practiced and confident (specifically thinking Laros, Kerr and Hocker who have made public their focus to be ready for this event) would be simply astounding and would go a long way to softening the blows of 22,23 and 24 on his legacy in this particular event. It's the kind of moment that if it he could do it would probably be the career moment that for him is spoken above anything else and would probably get him on the mountain face as a Mt Rushmore 1500m runner/miler.
For Hocker it's even more simple. NOBODY has ever won the Olympic 1500m and then the world title the following season. Only one guy has ever even won a world title post an Olympic title and that was Kiprop ('08 OG and then '11 WC) but again, not sure how much credence to give to that. It's pretty simple why - it's so incredibly hard to win the mens olympic 1500m physically but more so emotionally, that it's just tough to have that desperate motivation throughout training and racing following it. Post '96, Morceli got thumped by El G in the GP final of that year, was well beaten in the 97 World final and was just never the same runner as when he didn't have that Olympic title. El G just simply retired, even though he was probably still good enough to come back and win in Helsinki and get 5 straight world titles if he really wanted to. So if Hocker does it, it's a mark of incredible mental fortitude and competitiveness that puts him into a position of dominance in the event right now. The lack of DL accolades and Euro circuit wins will be irrelevant.
Anyone else? For TC and Kerr it puts them into a category of multiple world champ wins but they are chasing 4 from El G which they will never get to and even the 3 of Morceli would seem unlikely at their ages and career standpoints. Laros would just continue the trend of a new 1500m champion in this event which has been the case in every global final since 2016.
Morceli would have defeated this group. Let there be no doubt. Sebastian Coe would have defeated this group. Let there be no doubt. This group has a lot of almost great middle distance runners. I will give you that. They just don’t have that one guy who is intimidating just because he is there.
He does not deserve (Yet) to be in this type of conversation.
Ironically though, if he snagged another gold here, he would join the discussion and have cemented a rep for big race performance.
Uhhh yeah so I think he does. He's the Olympic Champion, Olympic record holder and he won one of the most anticipated races in recent Olympic history over this blue-ribboned distance and that was probably only second to Coe v Ovett in terms of all-time interest and storyline.
I'll repeat it - that Olympic gold/World championships gold medal set is extremely rare and held by only 3 men - one of them the consensus GOAT in the event (El G), the other might be 2nd on the list (Morceli). I think "cemented a rep for big race performance" might be slightly underselling it no?
And when you say "join the discussion" isn't that what's on the table for everyone here? Isn't the legacy question about what happens after this race result is in? When you have two Olympic champions in this race looking to get that elusive WC win, it supersedes anybody else - sorry.
He does not deserve (Yet) to be in this type of conversation.
Ironically though, if he snagged another gold here, he would join the discussion and have cemented a rep for big race performance.
Uhhh yeah so I think he does. He's the Olympic Champion, Olympic record holder and he won one of the most anticipated races in recent Olympic history over this blue-ribboned distance and that was probably only second to Coe v Ovett in terms of all-time interest and storyline.
I'll repeat it - that Olympic gold/World championships gold medal set is extremely rare and held by only 3 men - one of them the consensus GOAT in the event (El G), the other might be 2nd on the list (Morceli). I think "cemented a rep for big race performance" might be slightly underselling it no?
And when you say "join the discussion" isn't that what's on the table for everyone here? Isn't the legacy question about what happens after this race result is in? When you have two Olympic champions in this race looking to get that elusive WC win, it supersedes anybody else - sorry.
Coe would likely be on this list too of Olympic Champion, then world champion in 1981. Makes you wonder how many guys pre 1983 could have done this. Keino? walker maybe?
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It’s early days for Hocker. You’d look at 29 Worlds when he’ll be 28 as the year you’d start worrying about slippage for an upcoming championships due to age/his time on the circuit. If he gets bronze or better this year, he backs up that he’s a perennial contender. If he gets gold, he sets himself up as a clutch performer who transcends his times/circuit results like Mo Farah.
Jakob has a different background and 2018 you could say is more the year to work back from. Judging by his brothers’ career arcs and his own recent injury saga, there can be some concern that by 2027-8 he might not be as an unstoppable force. But we’ll see, as he can learn from their mistakes and he can adjust his program.
The unique thing about Tim is not his performance at this age but that he was a Worlds finalist in 2015. That is some longevity, and the years with sub-3:30s is something unusual too.
The other legacy guy might be Wightman, who at this point will go down as a bit of a one-hit wonder. No doubting that one hit and the fact he was a good athlete before and after, but the performance stands alone in his career. It’s a little like the Joe Flacco SB title let’s say.
A lot of complex combinations of ifs and maybes that might need El Capitan to decipher them, but really there are two HUGE legacy moments at play and it's for Ingebrigtsen and Hocker.
For Jakob, he needs to complete the "set" with a WC gold which puts him alongside El G and Morceli (yes Kiprop but yeah not really) as the only men to have done this. To amplify it, as we all know he hasn't raced once this outdoor season so to come in and beat guys who are race fit, sharp, practiced and confident (specifically thinking Laros, Kerr and Hocker who have made public their focus to be ready for this event) would be simply astounding and would go a long way to softening the blows of 22,23 and 24 on his legacy in this particular event. It's the kind of moment that if it he could do it would probably be the career moment that for him is spoken above anything else and would probably get him on the mountain face as a Mt Rushmore 1500m runner/miler.
For Hocker it's even more simple. NOBODY has ever won the Olympic 1500m and then the world title the following season. Only one guy has ever even won a world title post an Olympic title and that was Kiprop ('08 OG and then '11 WC) but again, not sure how much credence to give to that. It's pretty simple why - it's so incredibly hard to win the mens olympic 1500m physically but more so emotionally, that it's just tough to have that desperate motivation throughout training and racing following it. Post '96, Morceli got thumped by El G in the GP final of that year, was well beaten in the 97 World final and was just never the same runner as when he didn't have that Olympic title. El G just simply retired, even though he was probably still good enough to come back and win in Helsinki and get 5 straight world titles if he really wanted to. So if Hocker does it, it's a mark of incredible mental fortitude and competitiveness that puts him into a position of dominance in the event right now. The lack of DL accolades and Euro circuit wins will be irrelevant.
Anyone else? For TC and Kerr it puts them into a category of multiple world champ wins but they are chasing 4 from El G which they will never get to and even the 3 of Morceli would seem unlikely at their ages and career standpoints. Laros would just continue the trend of a new 1500m champion in this event which has been the case in every global final since 2016.
The problem with Jakob is that he is a better 3000/5000m runner than 15, while Hocker’s best event seems to be the 1500 when he gets it right. That’ll forever be the unfortunate case for him.
A lot of complex combinations of ifs and maybes that might need El Capitan to decipher them, but really there are two HUGE legacy moments at play and it's for Ingebrigtsen and Hocker.
For Jakob, he needs to complete the "set" with a WC gold which puts him alongside El G and Morceli (yes Kiprop but yeah not really) as the only men to have done this. To amplify it, as we all know he hasn't raced once this outdoor season so to come in and beat guys who are race fit, sharp, practiced and confident (specifically thinking Laros, Kerr and Hocker who have made public their focus to be ready for this event) would be simply astounding and would go a long way to softening the blows of 22,23 and 24 on his legacy in this particular event. It's the kind of moment that if it he could do it would probably be the career moment that for him is spoken above anything else and would probably get him on the mountain face as a Mt Rushmore 1500m runner/miler.
For Hocker it's even more simple. NOBODY has ever won the Olympic 1500m and then the world title the following season. Only one guy has ever even won a world title post an Olympic title and that was Kiprop ('08 OG and then '11 WC) but again, not sure how much credence to give to that. It's pretty simple why - it's so incredibly hard to win the mens olympic 1500m physically but more so emotionally, that it's just tough to have that desperate motivation throughout training and racing following it. Post '96, Morceli got thumped by El G in the GP final of that year, was well beaten in the 97 World final and was just never the same runner as when he didn't have that Olympic title. El G just simply retired, even though he was probably still good enough to come back and win in Helsinki and get 5 straight world titles if he really wanted to. So if Hocker does it, it's a mark of incredible mental fortitude and competitiveness that puts him into a position of dominance in the event right now. The lack of DL accolades and Euro circuit wins will be irrelevant.
Anyone else? For TC and Kerr it puts them into a category of multiple world champ wins but they are chasing 4 from El G which they will never get to and even the 3 of Morceli would seem unlikely at their ages and career standpoints. Laros would just continue the trend of a new 1500m champion in this event which has been the case in every global final since 2016.
Also isn’t Jakob arguably already on that Mt Rushmore? Outside of El G Morceli, and Coe, who else is ahead? Maybe Cram or Lagat but I doubt it.
A lot of complex combinations of ifs and maybes that might need El Capitan to decipher them, but really there are two HUGE legacy moments at play and it's for Ingebrigtsen and Hocker.
For Jakob, he needs to complete the "set" with a WC gold which puts him alongside El G and Morceli (yes Kiprop but yeah not really) as the only men to have done this. To amplify it, as we all know he hasn't raced once this outdoor season so to come in and beat guys who are race fit, sharp, practiced and confident (specifically thinking Laros, Kerr and Hocker who have made public their focus to be ready for this event) would be simply astounding and would go a long way to softening the blows of 22,23 and 24 on his legacy in this particular event. It's the kind of moment that if it he could do it would probably be the career moment that for him is spoken above anything else and would probably get him on the mountain face as a Mt Rushmore 1500m runner/miler.
For Hocker it's even more simple. NOBODY has ever won the Olympic 1500m and then the world title the following season. Only one guy has ever even won a world title post an Olympic title and that was Kiprop ('08 OG and then '11 WC) but again, not sure how much credence to give to that. It's pretty simple why - it's so incredibly hard to win the mens olympic 1500m physically but more so emotionally, that it's just tough to have that desperate motivation throughout training and racing following it. Post '96, Morceli got thumped by El G in the GP final of that year, was well beaten in the 97 World final and was just never the same runner as when he didn't have that Olympic title. El G just simply retired, even though he was probably still good enough to come back and win in Helsinki and get 5 straight world titles if he really wanted to. So if Hocker does it, it's a mark of incredible mental fortitude and competitiveness that puts him into a position of dominance in the event right now. The lack of DL accolades and Euro circuit wins will be irrelevant.
Anyone else? For TC and Kerr it puts them into a category of multiple world champ wins but they are chasing 4 from El G which they will never get to and even the 3 of Morceli would seem unlikely at their ages and career standpoints. Laros would just continue the trend of a new 1500m champion in this event which has been the case in every global final since 2016.
Agree with your take on Jakob, but there is one caveat: the expectation is lower due to injury and not having raced this outdoor season. It is hard to define what success looks like for him in the 1500m at this years WC. While anything less than a gold might not nail him on as the GOAT, his achievements to date still speak for themself.
Hocker on the other hand, has probably more at stake in terms of his legacy aka. one hit wonder. It's not a question of does he wins gold to achieve the unprecedented OLY/WC double. For me, if he runs anything less than a podium place, then his fairly lousy performances over the past 12 months are not really justified, and he can't claim to be the king of peaking and racing. Just the next guy, ha!
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Also isn’t Jakob arguably already on that Mt Rushmore? Outside of El G Morceli, and Coe, who else is ahead? Maybe Cram or Lagat but I doubt it.
Yeah I don't disagree - I think there is definitely an argument that can be made. Cram or Lagat no chance because Jakobs Olympic gold medal makes sure of that - same with Aouita who inexplicably chose the 800m in 1988 when an Olympic gold plus holding that WR for 7 years would have changed his equation.
I think it depends on what your criteria is for greatness. For example it's tough to make a case against Herb Elliot. Career unbeaten, Olympic gold, world record in the 1500 and mile (that separates him from Jakob right now) - 3.35.6 almost 65 years ago.
Also isn’t Jakob arguably already on that Mt Rushmore? Outside of El G Morceli, and Coe, who else is ahead? Maybe Cram or Lagat but I doubt it.
Yeah I don't disagree - I think there is definitely an argument that can be made. Cram or Lagat no chance because Jakobs Olympic gold medal makes sure of that - same with Aouita who inexplicably chose the 800m in 1988 when an Olympic gold plus holding that WR for 7 years would have changed his equation.
I think it depends on what your criteria is for greatness. For example it's tough to make a case against Herb Elliot. Career unbeaten, Olympic gold, world record in the 1500 and mile (that separates him from Jakob right now) - 3.35.6 almost 65 years ago.
Great mention of Herb Elliot, but for the record, last Saturday was the 65th anniversary of his 3:35.6.
How many guys have two medals in the Olympics plus two WC golds? Only one EL G. Let’s bot undersell Josh Kerr.
I'm not underselling him at all. I rate him very highly as a competitor and there is a part of me that really does feel for him with what happened in Paris. He ran well enough to win that race and the gold medal would have really changed his outlook - especially adding to the bronze in Tokyo. It was ironically (tragically?) his challenge for the gold that was the catalyst for Jakob making the move that ultimately gave space for Hocker to do his thing and snatch gold away from him. I can't think of many situations at that level of race where an athlete making his or her move to win, triggered an action that allowed another athlete to come through and beat them. Seems all backwards and really unfortunate, which it was.
But the reality is it happened, and barring a miracle in LA (when he will be close to turning 31), he probably won't end up with that Olympic title.
Sorry, Herb Elliott, double l and double t, and as you know, he was done at 22.
Sorry I did miss the extra t.
Yes done at 22, no such thing as million dollar footwear contracts and the "Diamond League" - sh-t even a global track league/circuit of any description didn't exist. Quit athletics and went back to school to study some kind of science (from memory).