LRC exclusive: Grant Fisher's coach reveals his 10,000 strategy (sort of) and Mike Smith talks up Nico Young's fitness

I’d say 1200m out.

Great stuff Jon, I think for Fisher getting to the lead at either 300 to go or 200 to go is the goal. Cheptegei could go from 500 out, but that requires a great sense of pace, timing, and strength. I’d say before 100 is a must after what we’ve seen.

Yup, I think that is the strategy I'd go for as well. Mike Scannell left his comments open to interpretation by saying he wouldn't run back the Zurich strategy, but my inference is that meant Fisher would just strike a bit earlier on the last lap, not that he'd be trying to win it from 800 or 1000 out like Farah used to do.

But obviously he has to read the race situation as well. Fisher might have a plan to go with 200 or 300 to go, but if Aregawi or Barega decides to hit it really hard at the bell and gets some separation on the field (more likely if the pace is already hot), maybe Fisher just follows and tries to swing by with 100 to go. He might be okay kicking by one guy in the home straight, but Fisher should want to avoid a scenario where he's kicking against three or four guys in the last 100.

Yes, good point. Some of the Ethiopians have really gone too hard like the race was done with 200 to go. Aregawi hasn’t fallen prey to that though and even at World Indoors he ran it pretty perfectly. Jakob just too quick in the last 50. But I’d think if Yomif goes after it at the bell, wait. If it’s Barega/Aregawi, I’m trying like hell to close that gap and at least being on the shoulder at 200 to go.

If you plan to wait till 200 or 300 left, aren’t you leaving a lot up to chance, and to the strategies of others in the race? If someone totally sends it at the bell, Fisher’s strategy becomes simply chasing them, and if it’s been a slow race up to that point there will be others trying to get to the lead at the same time as Fisher.

Farah used to go to the lead with 800 or 1000 left, but he wouldn’t actually inject a ton of pace at that point; he would just not let anyone pass him from that point to the finish. That’s not easy to do if you’re not the clear class of the field, but I think Grant is strong enough and savvy enough that he could employ a variation of this strategy with 600 or 800m left.

we are talking Grant taking it from about 500 m out.

Grant coach appears to know about peaking.

So he has a good shot.

If an african ramps up the pace hard from 1200 m out, Grant can draft, where his kick is plenty good with others run well over their aerobic max and into anaerobic, and of course if you are deep in ox debt, the kick is very compromised.

Rather than guessing, take a look again at what happened in Tokyo 4 years ago in brutal weather conditions similar to what are expected Saturday night. (See video below.)

14:08/5000 for leader w/pack coming thru in around 14:10 (68/lap).

Nothing happened until 4 laps to go when Cheptegei took the lead and brought the pace down to 64 -- which only dropped a couple off the back.

Real racing began w/800 to go, various guys to the front, all 3 Ethiopians in a pack of 8 but never taking the lead.

Finally, Barega took the lead just before the bell, closed in 54 FTW, Grant back in 5th with an approx 57 close.

Note: unlike at last year's Olympics, the Ethiopians never led, just hung around until the end. And, that time they got it right w/Barega being the best heat/humidity racer, thus having the best close.

So, now doubt Grant or anyone else will attempt a long push from 5 or 4 laps out. Probably not even 3, as too many will still be in the chase pack.

Maybe someone takes it w/800 to go as Mo Ahmed tried -- and paid for it by dying at the end, ending up 6th.

Most likely scenario: the pack will start speeding up a bit about a mile out, a few pretenders will drop off the back, but all the contenders will still be there with 600 to go. From then on, it's positioning, patience and who has the best final 250 like Barega had 4 years ago.

Just hope Saturday night it's Grant and/or Nico who execute the best.

Go to approx 31 minute mark, a bit over 3 laps to go:

While I agree to a certain extent that he is a strength based aerobic guy that is as tough as they come, BUT he does have foot speed. He closed in 54 in the DL final which was his last race. Ran with Nico and fisher the last mile of the 10k and was there at the very end. These are the guys that have a real chance to win the 10k and Blanks was right there. Same thing was said about Fisher when he turned pro. I do think the 10k is his best event, especially as an American where a lot of their 5k guys are really better at the lower end of the distance spectrum. I think Nico can win this race. And I believe Blanks is slightly behind him at the moment making him a guy that will be in the mix with the best in the world.

Even if you had a first hand experience and did not like him, it seems odd to project your sour feelings publicly. So you have the same feelings about Grant? Seems like there is always a backlash if someone is great……at anything.

Yes so the poster who referenced the Olympics race should be on the money. 23-4 minutes of moderate effort than ramping it up. I don’t think the Ethiopian federation is dumb enough to ask their guys to push this thing the whole way or even from earlier than 2k out.

As this thread has delved into the details of how heat, humidity & dew point will affect this race, for US distance fans, we can only hope that Nico & Graham can race well in these conditions -- which, as you can read, are being described as "brutal."

We know Grant is great at this. Proof is in the Tokyo Oly video -- as well as the difficult conditions he faced at the 2021 Oly Trials when Eugene faced that "heat dome" which sent temps soaring to as high as 116 deg F trackside, causing all sorts of scheduling changes.

However, to the best of my knowledge, Nico & Graham have not. Not to this degree. If they cannot handle the conditions, then they're likely off the back of the chase pack when the real racing begins -- in the Oly video above, note how uncompetitive Woody & Joe were -- regardless of how slow the pace has been to that point.

So, to this point, Grant is the proven commodity. Nico & Graham are not. They may be just as good as Grant racing in these "brutal" conditions, but we just have not seen it yet.

Which is why, pre-race, my gold medal favorites, in some order, are Grant, Selemon and Berihu -- based upon their 2021 Olympic race plus the fitness they've shown this year.

But will be screaming at the screen for Nico & Graham to hang on to the lead pack and be relevant at the end.

I can appreciate the pain the fella from Italy is going through that last 2k: eyes closed, hanging on for dear life. Refreshing to actually see it look as hard as it is.

My money is on Blanks over Nico given the conditions. You don't choose to train in Georgia unless you tolerate heat+humidity

Blanks is from Georgia though - very hot and humid. Southern CA is not

Malmo is 100% correct with this. Upper 70s dew points are oppressive. It will not be fun for anyone!

I’m a Graham Blanks fan, but Grant had better foot speed as a College Sophomore. He’s always had a good kick it’s just not always good “enough”

I would take leg speed over foot speed any day of the week.

Then get help and stop with your issues driven drivel