Your very title undermines the whole point you are trying to make because: wasn't Jakob in near WR shape in Paris?
Even after Monaco I had Jakob finishing 3rd last year, because he lacked the kick of Cole and Josh, and wasn't that much fitter than them. Jakob ran 3:26.7 which is sorta close to the WR, though its closer to the fitness Cole was at the in the Olympics. I expect Cole will be fitter than Jakob was last year, and unlike him have a very strong kick. And I don't expect Cole will try and front run 1500m, unless the Pace is slow, like the US 5k.
Yes, but my point is being in WR shape doesn't guarantee anything in the 1500m, or so it seems.
Also, I appreciate you've seen something special in Hocker in previous seasons given his big wins at USATF in 2021 and 2024, however, his kick this year hasn't yielded any victories, so I'm not sure it can be held in the same regard this season in the context of the 1500m as a whole. i.e. Laros' kick is better.
I agree that Hocker is favored here alongside Laros, but it's silly to give odds-on chances to a guy who has lost so often this year. Last year Hocker beating Nuguse at the Trials was a portent of things to come. This year he's lost time and time again to all his main rivals.
It's true that he peaks harder than everyone else, but you can't look at his middling track record for the year and say "oh, none of it matters cause he clearly will peak for Tokyo." Just because he pulled it off last year doesn't mean he will this year.
I’ve written about this before, but Hocker misses the break a lot which is his biggest weakness. If Jakob makes an El G-style drive from 700m out, I think he might end up getting shuffled out of the equation. He’s well poised to win most other types of races, but then again so is Laros, who is looking incredibly scary and doesn't have any obvious weaknesses.
At best I'll give Hocker and Laros about 20% chances each, Kerr and J. Koech 15% each, Jakob and P. Koech 10% each, and the rest of the field the balance. Strand is talented and will win gold in the future but he doesn't yet have the experience to navigate the rounds and the brutal tactics of the finals. As for Kerr, don't forget he beat the podium twice in a row at GST. He had a bad race at the London DL but I think he's fine lurking in the shadows this year. He will be in it no matter what and is perfectly suited to kick hard at the end of a 3:29-low race.
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I appreciate you've put some effort into this document, but do think there's some somewhat delusional thinking going on at times. It's fun to speculate so can't detract from that but I don't think much can be read into how someone ran in prior years or whether their 12.X close was in a 3:32 race or a 3:29 race etc. At least, not as much as is being claimed here.
That said, I don't think your predictions are wildly off in terms of order, although the % attribution most definitely is, as at a ~60% chance of winning you're basically giving Hocker Goat status and downplaying the others; if it were that clear cut he would be winning US trials even without his mystical peaking you've noted.
I think a more realistic assessment of this championship is that we have 5-6 contenders for gold which is awesome, and we all know the tight margins at the top mean it only takes a bad day for someone like Cole to finish off the podium and someone like Koech to win the thing.
I think a more realistic assessment of this championship is that we have 5-6 contenders for gold which is awesome, and we all know the tight margins at the top mean it only takes a bad day for someone like Cole to finish off the podium and someone like Koech to win the thing.
Agreed. We are absolutely spoiled as fans. Never in history has an event been so exciting, with 5-6 guys of roughly equal chances, all in the top 15 of all time, contending for gold.
I agree that Hocker is favored here alongside Laros, but it's silly to give odds-on chances to a guy who has lost so often this year. Last year Hocker beating Nuguse at the Trials was a portent of things to come. This year he's lost time and time again to all his main rivals.
It's true that he peaks harder than everyone else, but you can't look at his middling track record for the year and say "oh, none of it matters cause he clearly will peak for Tokyo." Just because he pulled it off last year doesn't mean he will this year.
I’ve written about this before, but Hocker misses the break a lot which is his biggest weakness. If Jakob makes an El G-style drive from 700m out, I think he might end up getting shuffled out of the equation. He’s well poised to win most other types of races, but then again so is Laros, who is looking incredibly scary and doesn't have any obvious weaknesses.
At best I'll give Hocker and Laros about 20% chances each, Kerr and J. Koech 15% each, Jakob and P. Koech 10% each, and the rest of the field the balance. Strand is talented and will win gold in the future but he doesn't yet have the experience to navigate the rounds and the brutal tactics of the finals. As for Kerr, don't forget he beat the podium twice in a row at GST. He had a bad race at the London DL but I think he's fine lurking in the shadows this year. He will be in it no matter what and is perfectly suited to kick hard at the end of a 3:29-low race.
In fairness to Hocker, I think he really gave it all at the trial last year to prove to himself he's good enough to take on anybody. Before the trial, I think Nuguse was the favorite to medal in the US, and beating him really gave Hocker the confidence boost he needed. But this year he doesn't need to anymore in the 1500m.
On the contrary, it's the 5k he might need to prove himself, and that's why he really showed what he got there. I think he's really going for it.
With that said, I disagree with the 60% odds. It's nuts, and that's Rudisha territory kind of winning odds. At best it's 20-30%. Someone can get sick, no matter how well they peak. They can get tripped come the bell. Most of all, the competitions has gotten too deep to allow that kind of winning odds. There're like what four 3:27 guys (including Hocker) and one 3:26 guy. And Laros can definitely run 3:27 as well.
Unless Hocker is in WR shape as OP suggested (which I doubt), he's not gonna stand out from a PB point of view. And even then, it may not be enough to dominate such a field. 1500m is also not a 5k. In a 5k, the fittest guy on that day would win no matter what, but in a 1500, tactic matters. In Rio, Macdaddy pretty much held all the cards against Centro. He had the kick (he actually ran the fastest last lap), the PB but Centro still came out on top due to his superior positioning.
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Great write up, hopefully will get some attention just based off effort.
Some things I agree with:
- The top 2 in your ranking
- Hocker will likely be in world record shape
- Major players such as Jakob or Phanuel don’t have a real chance
(I know I didn’t list much, but I’m just keeping it short, it was an interesting write up)
What I disagree with:
- Kerr is ranked too high, Laros and Hocker are easily better than where he was at last year and this years Kerr is worse than last year (he goes behind J Koech and Strand)
- Strand and J Koech should have their win percentages doubled, both have shown amazing shape and kicks at USAs, matching the likes of Hocker and Laros, though are less consistent and have some unknowns, J Koech also has a higher ceiling this season
- Hocker and Laros should have the same percentage: Though in a time trial I would take Hocker, I don’t believe the race will be THAT fast, mid to low 3:30s is my guess, in which case kickers are going to be favored, meaning anyone in the top 4 have a somewhat even shot, who shows up with the best kick and tactics depends on the day + some randomness
I believe the race won’t be that fast as I don’t see who’s going to take it agressively the first 2 laps based off it failing a lot with Jakob and Nuguse especially.
Yeah, Jakob will probably be looking to ratchet up the pace incrementally over the last 800m similar to how El Guerrouj used to instead of pushing the pace. Nuguse might be inclined to keep it honest though since he doesn’t have the last lap or last 100m top-end to medal off of a slower pace.
Even after Monaco I had Jakob finishing 3rd last year, because he lacked the kick of Cole and Josh, and wasn't that much fitter than them. Jakob ran 3:26.7 which is sorta close to the WR, though its closer to the fitness Cole was at the in the Olympics. I expect Cole will be fitter than Jakob was last year, and unlike him have a very strong kick. And I don't expect Cole will try and front run 1500m, unless the Pace is slow, like the US 5k.
Yes, but my point is being in WR shape doesn't guarantee anything in the 1500m, or so it seems.
Also, I appreciate you've seen something special in Hocker in previous seasons given his big wins at USATF in 2021 and 2024, however, his kick this year hasn't yielded any victories, so I'm not sure it can be held in the same regard this season in the context of the 1500m as a whole. i.e. Laros' kick is better.
The trouble with the discourse around Hocker is that it’s assumed he’ll be able to replicate what he did in Paris, and so far we have zero evidence of that. It was obvious years ago when he was closing 3:35 races in 52 that he could run faster, but nothing about last year’s Trials performance pointed to 3:27 closing in 53 with a last 100m around 13-flat. That might have been the greatest kick ever, and since then he hasn’t won a single 1500 and that finishing speed is nowhere to be found. We can say he peaks hard, but Paris is a huge outlier on his resume and I’m not convinced he’s capable of doing something like that again.
Your very title undermines the whole point you are trying to make because: wasn't Jakob in near WR shape in Paris?
Even after Monaco I had Jakob finishing 3rd last year, because he lacked the kick of Cole and Josh, and wasn't that much fitter than them. Jakob ran 3:26.7 which is sorta close to the WR, though its closer to the fitness Cole was at the in the Olympics. I expect Cole will be fitter than Jakob was last year, and unlike him have a very strong kick. And I don't expect Cole will try and front run 1500m, unless the Pace is slow, like the US 5k.
3:28.2, the fastest time ever without any pacing by over a second is apparently the same fitness as 3:27.6 with someone in front of you for 97% of the race.
Cole has never been within a second of Jakob fitness wise when they’ve both been healthy, and there’s no reason to believe he’s someone found an extra second or more this year that would put him in “world record shape”
He definitely has a better chance of winning than Jakob this year, but we have to be honest about medal ability vs. world record ability. It happens with Yared too. Dathan told him he was in world record shape at Pre, so he went out way faster than he actually should have, lost, and missed the wr by 3 seconds.
Yes, but my point is being in WR shape doesn't guarantee anything in the 1500m, or so it seems.
Also, I appreciate you've seen something special in Hocker in previous seasons given his big wins at USATF in 2021 and 2024, however, his kick this year hasn't yielded any victories, so I'm not sure it can be held in the same regard this season in the context of the 1500m as a whole. i.e. Laros' kick is better.
The trouble with the discourse around Hocker is that it’s assumed he’ll be able to replicate what he did in Paris, and so far we have zero evidence of that. It was obvious years ago when he was closing 3:35 races in 52 that he could run faster, but nothing about last year’s Trials performance pointed to 3:27 closing in 53 with a last 100m around 13-flat. That might have been the greatest kick ever, and since then he hasn’t won a single 1500 and that finishing speed is nowhere to be found. We can say he peaks hard, but Paris is a huge outlier on his resume and I’m not convinced he’s capable of doing something like that again.
not in a 1500m, but closing a 13:20ish 5k in 51 is quite a kick only few people can match nowadays.
Going to be a fun race to watch and nearly as fun to come back to this thread and see how everyone's predictions fared. I see a fast but not WR race with a cluster of guys having a shot down the stretch. Hocker ends up third due to getting caught in traffic with Laros winning and someone like Strand or Koech taking second. I'll go with Strand but, despite his recent struggles in global 1500s, I'll never count out JI.
Agreed. Cole isn't getting anywhere near WR shape unless he hops on the same juice he used at the Olympics. Even if he does, he will never best his Olympic gold time.
There’s no such as runner that peaks better than anyone else in the world and that Hocker likes to lay an egg at Pre doesn’t mean he’s better at it than others. Ingebrigtsen ran 3:26.73 before the Olympics and 7:17.55 after and I don’t think he suffered a dip in fitness in between. Nuguse and Kessler and possibly Kerr ran the races of their careers to date, at Paris last year to date.
Other runners besides Hocker, have years of training and racing experience and are just as capable of peaking for the big races. If Hocker and his coach are such geniuses at peaking, why was it that Hocker’s training partner, Cooper Teare, seemed unprepared for the OT last year after running 12:54 in May.