2025 Tokyo 1500 - one for the ages

The World Championships could potentially have a much tougher field than the Olympics Jakob won, where the main competition was just one man -- double World Champion Timothy Cheruiyot. In the WC final, Laros could face two Olympic champions in Jakob and Hocker, a World Champion in Kerr and an Olympic medalist in Nuguse. Not to mention a younger version of himself in Phanuel.

Hocker progression is consistent from teen years, no quantum leaps.

He has gotten his 5k alligned as well.

which is a progression he was working for years, and was critized for it.

no matter the upcoming result, it worked.

3:30 to 3:27 is a quantum leap no matter how you cut it.

I think it’s that first lap 57-high (fast first 100) and then yeah 58-mid, 58-high tempo, get to 2:55-6 and then sprint,

For all the hype I think it would be hilarious if this turned into a slow tactical race. Everybody around here would be like that red-faced meme with the sweaty guy not knowing which button to push.

Was that great, or an insult?

Let's face it, 2016 was panned largely because a guy won it from the front. LetsRun and particularly Americans don't appreciate that style. Dave Wottle's 800 gold from Munich 1972 remains easily the slowest winning time since 1960. It's nearly a half second slower than anything within that time frame. Yet you never hear a peep about that. It's non-stop raves, and only because Americans were somehow brainwashed in middle school to cherish that style and believe every runner should aspire to it.

I mean odds are it will be tactical, the question is more so how tactical. Anything slower than mid 3:30s is now considered a jog fest and would be a bit disappointing, but there’s a decent chance that’s how it plays out.

I think anyone thinking 3:35+ is just off. That would mean 2:45 at 1100m/bell.

Even at a 3:30 pace 12 guys are probably still there and no one is safe, so Jacob and Hocker and Goose and? might have forged to the front with others going further and having their path broken up.

Picking a winner is tough because if anyone gets a clean ride can take it. And some thought capable of winning might not make the Final [is it 2x5 plus two fastest or 3x3 plus three?]

we’re likely back to the days of Tim C making sure the pace is honest, and god bless him for it

Based on yesterday’s race, anything that isn’t blazing fast will leave several guys bunched up and jockeying for position near the front. Even without Hobbs “clipper” Kessler in the race, I think there’s a decent chance of a fall if it goes slow. The problem is there are too many guys of roughly equal ability now.

But if Jakob is healthy, he will string them out after the first lap.

I just have a feeling Jakob is going to steal this. I also say that every year.

Also to add into the mix:

-random N African who's never really done anything

-a potential favourite missing out on the final due to poor tactics/fall/insane sprint in the second semi-final

Yeah I agree - and if Jakob isn't there (I don't think he's going to run the 1500 - just a hunch), then it's going to be super interesting to see how the field reacts given nobody in it will have had to have led a global final in the last 3 seasons (don't underestimate that). You'd think Tim C would be the next guy to take it up but it's really 6 years since his peak and I don't think he cares to do this for the field anymore.

I could see something like a 56 first lap, the pace tailing right off through 800 in something like 1.55 low and given the field usually waits until 1000m before they get fidgety, the bell being hit in 2.38 point. I think the man that can close in under 52.0 (and it will only be one because they are going to have to run a perfectly positioned and clean final lap to do that) will win it. I think it will be very similar in construction to the US final, maybe slightly slower though 1100, but a similar finishing time in the low 3.30's which is the "new" 3.34/5

I appreciate it. I think a lot of people do.

Also, a lot of people were actually raised to admire Prefontaine, aggressive front-running, and bold moves, and appreciate other ways to win more now that we're older. If by "that style" you mean come-from-behind kicks, I don't think that is a good description of what Americans like.

So you don´t think Jakob will be in the race?!

+1

I have in other threads pointed out that Kerr is far from his 2024 level.

His Bowerman Mile win last year translated on paper to a 3:28 mid in the 1500m. But considering Kerr frontran the last 600m in Eugene I will set it to a 1500m at least 1 seconds faster. So he is almost 2 seconds slower this year, AND................

The OP consider his GST 1500m (3:34 mid) wins as GREAT wins. It is difficult to agree with this when many runners have run sub 3:30, including 2 in 3:27 and one in 3:28.

The OP seems to be a bit biased towards the Brits/ Scots.

Tim isn´t double world champion! He won in Doha 2019 but got only silver in 2017 (after Manangoi).+ a silver in the 2021 OG 1500m.

quantum leap? yes. Suspicious? also yes

No.

Just no.

Absolutely not.

Laughable.

3:27.65 is an eon from 3:26.00. It makes Hocker the eighth-fastest all time. 🥱

11 men have run ≤3:28.00.

Only 3 humans have run ≤3:27.00. And El G went a full second faster than that.

3:27.00 is what separates the GOAT shortlist from the longlist.

El G, Lagat, Kiprop. Everything else is just noise in the "most impressive" discussion.

Would you also call Christian Coleman's 9.76 win at the 2019 WC the "most impressive performance of all time"? It has the same world ranking. Again, laughable. 😆😆😆😆😆

Huge factor this year is how late the race is, middle of September.

Kerr is has been super consistent in championships races and looked a the calendar and I'm sure is preparing to be his best then. Yes he lost to Koech a month ago or whatever but I think he knows how to peak. I don't think hes a favorite to win but hes probably the best chance to medal (as long as the race is not slow).

How will the americans hold up in mid september? Hocker is experienced and I am sure is preparing to peak well. Strand probably never thought he would be here but maybe with 2 months after usas he can retool. Hasn't had the best tactics making the final will be crucial. Koech is a huge? how will his hamstring hold up through rounds.

I don't think Jakob will win and if he might not even enter 1500 but I think his competitive spirit is too strong and he will try. Probably not a bad idea as he can race himself into shape. Would be funny if he changed strategy and doesn't lead early and wins. I think that only happens if someone else takes it out hard.

Will one of the Cheriyouts take it out hard? Perhaps the most likely candidates and would change outcome or race.

Phanuel Koech was hot in the summer but can he hold it together in september. Also who knows his tactitcs, the semis should be crazy and one will probably go slow and someone will get left out.

Laros is hot now and hard to bet him out of medals. But again mid september race with rounds is different that mid august rabbited diamond league race.

Habz who knows, the diamond league final will be telling if he can have another good race.

I am pulling for the goose to get in there but hard to imagine laros doesn't win again in the dl final.

The difference between 1st and 6th probably wont be much. Peaking is huge and I think you bet on more experienced guys for many reasons including the late in the season race.

If I had to bet I would say hocker cause hes got that dog in him and he did it last year. I think people on this board discount his victory as a fluke, but I think hes just a great championship racer who rises to occasion.

laros and kerr get the other two medals.