As others have already pointed out, this is nothing but a bad sign. It’s never a good thing when an athlete has no races prior to the big dance. They have to prepare in races for what cannot be fully simulated in training. The injury is more serious than Jakob is leading us to believe and he is just banking on hope of getting to the starting line for the 5k in Tokyo.
It’s impossible to predict anything in this sport with certainty, but I’m betting if he even gets to the line in Tokyo he’s a DNF or non-factor. No way he is in even close to 3:26 and 7:17 shape with no races or sharpness.
He opened up indoors with a 3:45 WR with a 3:29 WR split en route. Last year didn't he open up at Pre with a 3:45 mile coming off injury? Jakob has also done more high level racing than maybe anyone else in the last 5 years. Certainly more than any of his main competitors in the 1500. I'd definitely feel better about his chances if I could gauge his fitness from a race, but he generally always comes out swinging.
This is WAAAY later in the season than the indoor performances you mentioned. He had plenty of time coming back from injury cases like these to race before the WC and Olympics. This is simply uncharted territory.
As others have already pointed out, this is nothing but a bad sign. It’s never a good thing when an athlete has no races prior to the big dance. They have to prepare in races for what cannot be fully simulated in training. The injury is more serious than Jakob is leading us to believe and he is just banking on hope of getting to the starting line for the 5k in Tokyo.
It’s impossible to predict anything in this sport with certainty, but I’m betting if he even gets to the line in Tokyo he’s a DNF or non-factor. No way he is in even close to 3:26 and 7:17 shape with no races or sharpness.
He opened up indoors with a 3:45 WR with a 3:29 WR split en route. Last year didn't he open up at Pre with a 3:45 mile coming off injury? Jakob has also done more high level racing than maybe anyone else in the last 5 years. Certainly more than any of his main competitors in the 1500. I'd definitely feel better about his chances if I could gauge his fitness from a race, but he generally always comes out swinging.
And I think you may be inadvertently making my point. All the racing has caught up with him and broken him.
OMG he looks scary fit in this video, definitely lost weight, very slimmed down. He ran 7:17 last year and right off of coming off an injury ran 3:45. I think he's going to shock the world. All these pretenders running these fast times may be in for the shock of their lives. I actually love that so many people are counting this 24 year old multiple world record hold out :)
There’s no quantitative context to gauge how fit he is. It’s impossible to access fitness by looks after a certain point. He’s on a treadmill. He clearly can’t run workouts normally right now. It’s a bad sign. The pros usually highly over-rate their readiness bouncing back from injury. They deceive themselves and the fans and press. I’ve seen this a thousand times. Jakob is no exception. See what is actually happening instead of letting your emotions deceive you.
He does a large portion of his workouts on the treadmill so that’s not really relevant.
If I’m a betting man, and I’ve witnessed declines by a megastar like this several times over the years…I believe we are witnessing the beginning of the end of Jakob Ingebrigtsen. More frequent injuries is a sure sign of decline as well as several years of high level winning performances. Everyone has their breaking point. It normally happens out of nowhere.
Jakob was so convinced the sky was the limit. I almost guarantee we will never see him compete over 5k again and that his 5ks and 1500s from here on in will be mediocre at best. Next year he’ll be bounce back a little but slower and then get re-injured and after 2026, I bet anything we will never see him on a start list again. I’ve seen this negative trajectory too often in the past to be naive.
Jakob had a great career. He is done.
You bet anything we never see him compete again after 2026? Name your price, I'm all in on that one.
Today (Aug 10) he dropped a pretty cool post on his insta, just 40min ago.
A bit mysterious, but I think it looks our guy is not out of it quite yet.
My guess is that he is putting all his eggs in one basket this season - the WC. Overriding his love of frequent competitions to have weeks of deep, focused training in St. Moritz before his trip to Tokyo and maximize fitness for just one event in a very sub-optimal season.
Yeah I think this might be it. He probably though the cost ot benefit ratio of racing Silesia and Brussels was negative enough that it was better to just focus on the WC.
That's a novel theory. Looks like you're going way out on a limb there....
OMG he looks scary fit in this video, definitely lost weight, very slimmed down. He ran 7:17 last year and right off of coming off an injury ran 3:45. I think he's going to shock the world. All these pretenders running these fast times may be in for the shock of their lives. I actually love that so many people are counting this 24 year old multiple world record hold out :)
There’s no quantitative context to gauge how fit he is. It’s impossible to access fitness by looks after a certain point. He’s on a treadmill. He clearly can’t run workouts normally right now. It’s a bad sign. The pros usually highly over-rate their readiness bouncing back from injury. They deceive themselves and the fans and press. I’ve seen this a thousand times. Jakob is no exception. See what is actually happening instead of letting your emotions deceive you.
At least do your research before throwing around your black pearls- ie “see what is actually happening instead of letting your emotions deceive you.”
Hint: google “Jakob Ingebrigtsen training” or “Norwegian method”
Look at the clip he posted on 08/10 vs the clip he posted on 07/30. Are these not clips from the same workout? Same blue shorts with white tank top, then shirtless with black hat, and hair is the same length despite being almost two weeks apart. Is he just reposting old workouts to make it look like he’s able to do more intense work than he is capable of currently?
Look at the clip he posted on 08/10 vs the clip he posted on 07/30. Are these not clips from the same workout? Same blue shorts with white tank top, then shirtless with black hat, and hair is the same length despite being almost two weeks apart. Is he just reposting old workouts to make it look like he’s able to do more intense work than he is capable of currently?
Seems like it, but I seriously doubt he would caption it "tick tock, the countdown is on" if we wasn't fully intent on racing in the near future. FWIW, his wife also commented on the post with the fingers crossed emoji which to me is a good sign that they are cautiously optimistic about where's currently at.
if geb could do it in 2000, ingebrigtsen can do it in 2025
I don’t have all the race data from that year, but what I could quickly find was that Geb raced more than the 10k in Sydney that year and was ranked number 1 in the 5k and 10k. I know he was hurt in Sydney, but he had raced that season. So your analogy is a poor one.
If I’m a betting man, and I’ve witnessed declines by a megastar like this several times over the years…I believe we are witnessing the beginning of the end of Jakob Ingebrigtsen. More frequent injuries is a sure sign of decline as well as several years of high level winning performances. Everyone has their breaking point. It normally happens out of nowhere.
Jakob was so convinced the sky was the limit. I almost guarantee we will never see him compete over 5k again and that his 5ks and 1500s from here on in will be mediocre at best. Next year he’ll be bounce back a little but slower and then get re-injured and after 2026, I bet anything we will never see him on a start list again. I’ve seen this negative trajectory too often in the past to be naive.
Jakob had a great career. He is done.
You bet anything we never see him compete again after 2026? Name your price, I'm all in on that one.
I have seen this happen countless times. What seems like a temporary setback turns out more often than not to be a permanent one. We don’t learn from history. Do your research. I would be very surprised to ever see him win anything major again or PR at any distance.
He opened up indoors with a 3:45 WR with a 3:29 WR split en route. Last year didn't he open up at Pre with a 3:45 mile coming off injury? Jakob has also done more high level racing than maybe anyone else in the last 5 years. Certainly more than any of his main competitors in the 1500. I'd definitely feel better about his chances if I could gauge his fitness from a race, but he generally always comes out swinging.
This is WAAAY later in the season than the indoor performances you mentioned. He had plenty of time coming back from injury cases like these to race before the WC and Olympics. This is simply uncharted territory.
You're right, but the Pre performance alone would've gotten him 4th in the Olympics last year. If he's in that fitness at WCs, I think he finishes lower than 4th in the 1500, but probably still wins the 5k. It's definitely possible that he's in horrible shape and will go out in the first round, but I'd say that's less likely than him medaling in the 5k just because of how good he is. Especially because guys like Fisher have shown you can maintain fitness (and even get more fit) during an injury, as evidenced by his 7:25 3k AR in the DL final back in 2022 or 2023 (really late in the season).
Like I said, we have no way to know his fitness since he hasn't raced, I'm just betting on talent and previous results.