I hear the concerns about Martin’s kick/top-end speed, but I think he has good potential in the 1500m, and I project him to be much better than Hunter (he’s already faster than Hunter at 1500 and 3k). He ran 3:32.03 while running much of the race in lane 2 and the outside of lane 1, so it’s fair to say he’s already capable of running 3:31 at age 21. How many American milers have been as good as he is at that young age?
Times aren’t irrelevant, but they’re not the be-all, end-all. Adam Spencer ran 3:31.8 at age 21, but nobody expects him to make a global final I don’t think. Ditto Sam Tanner (who ran faster). Drew Hunter has gotten 4th in back-to-back years, which shows he’s better than his PBs.
Garys had a lot of great chances to run fast in a blazing-fast era. All props to him for doing so, but that doesn’t mean his trajectory is that far ahead of everyone. There’s a ton of competition to make the US teams, so for me to think he’ll be “much better” than a guys who’s just missed out in back to back years is strong.
This is a good reasonable take, but I believe Martin is going to be one of the dudes to make it out of the scrum and be a perennial team-maker in a couple years. Problem is we sort of own the 1500 right now and making the US team is as hard as making any team in the world. Lot of really good people are going to get left home.
Crazy that the #2 ranked 1500 runner and last year's bronze medalist was only FIFTH. To a lesser extent, that last year's 5th placer only got 4th in the country. Yared can fix his error by getting some tactical sense. Hobbs is just going to have to keep working & get lucky, which is the fate of Koech, Strand, Martin, etc. as well. I fear. Yared and Hocker are the only two that really shouldn't need luck.
Given his trajectory in may be in perfect position to peak by 2028. It is very hard to hold a peak from three or even two years out to the OG. Very few OG medalists have been able to do it.
I hear the concerns about Martin’s kick/top-end speed, but I think he has good potential in the 1500m, and I project him to be much better than Hunter (he’s already faster than Hunter at 1500 and 3k). He ran 3:32.03 while running much of the race in lane 2 and the outside of lane 1, so it’s fair to say he’s already capable of running 3:31 at age 21. How many American milers have been as good as he is at that young age?
Times aren’t irrelevant, but they’re not the be-all, end-all. Adam Spencer ran 3:31.8 at age 21, but nobody expects him to make a global final I don’t think. Ditto Sam Tanner (who ran faster). Drew Hunter has gotten 4th in back-to-back years, which shows he’s better than his PBs.
Garys had a lot of great chances to run fast in a blazing-fast era. All props to him for doing so, but that doesn’t mean his trajectory is that far ahead of everyone. There’s a ton of competition to make the US teams, so for me to think he’ll be “much better” than a guys who’s just missed out in back to back years is strong.
I’m not claiming times are the be-all end-all. I’m excited about Martin’s times and his championship performances. As I mentioned in my first post, he’s been better than Strand at age 21 in both of those categories.
Whereas Hunter’s ceiling in his prime seems to be someone on the fringe of making teams, I can envision Martin in 2028 being good enough to finish top 8 in the Olympic final along with running 3:28 and sub 12:55. I think it’s fair to say that would be much better than anything we’ve seen from Hunter.
Good point about xc. Yes, Martin finished 13th last fall. That's also significantly better than what Strand did as a junior at the same age: 45th.
This raises two questions:
Is it possible that Martin is a bigger talent than Strand? That may seem crazy to suggest, but it's clear Martin is ahead of where Strand was as a junior aged 21. Martin also ran significantly faster than Strand as a sophomore: 3:35.77 compared to 3:38.13. And remember that Martin ran sub-4 in high school; Strand did not.
Considering that Martin has been faster than Strand at each age since at least 18, and Strand ran 3:30.25 this year, what might Martin be capable of running next year if he stays healthy? I think 3:30-3:31 is reasonable. Any chance he runs under 3:30?
GM doesn't pass the eye test to be a good pro. ES does. GM lumbers FAR too much and has no kick. Don't like the head-bobbing he has.
You are looking at this totally wrong. The fact that there are visible energy leaks and he runs a 3:48 can absolutely be good news….Want to try answering why?
GM doesn't pass the eye test to be a good pro. ES does. GM lumbers FAR too much and has no kick. Don't like the head-bobbing he has.
You are looking at this totally wrong. The fact that there are visible energy leaks and he runs a 3:48 can absolutely be good news….Want to try answering why?
Agreed. This kid is intelligent, patient, still developing physically and improving technically. I don't know what it is about him, the way he goes about his business, carries himself, (the glasses?) but something makes me feel like he's going to do great things, just a gut feeling.
At what point does he sign a pro contract and from where are the likely offers to come from? He is already scary fast without the benefit of any significant altitude training. Will be interesting to watch him during his senior year at UVA.
At what point does he sign a pro contract and from where are the likely offers to come from? He is already scary fast without the benefit of any significant altitude training. Will be interesting to watch him during his senior year at UVA.
I see him getting attention from a lot of the top programs. Shoe companies will be fawning over him. He has such great potential as an Athlete, an Ambassador, and for Advertising. He gets an AAA rating.
Is he developing the 1500m speed to eventually surpass Nico and Graham in the 5000m? I know everybody thinks those two are invincible. But what do they do if Gary becomes a 3:29-3:30 guy with great 10k strength. Feels like even his 10k strength potential is higher than basically everybody in the 1500m even Hocker. Top returning Senior at XC nationals, finished in 11th place, even beat Strand and Wolfe in an 8k at ACC's. And they finished 7th and 8th at nationals.
At what point does he sign a pro contract and from where are the likely offers to come from? He is already scary fast without the benefit of any significant altitude training. Will be interesting to watch him during his senior year at UVA.
I see him getting attention from a lot of the top programs. Shoe companies will be fawning over him. He has such great potential as an Athlete, an Ambassador, and for Advertising. He gets an AAA rating.
Agreed. In terms of timing, I think Martin will run his full senior year and then go pro next summer. With Green and Strand graduating, Martin expressed interest in getting his turn to shine in the NCAA next year:
With so many standout performances by other athletes at the U.S. championships, Gary Martin has been flying under the radar a bit. I think he deserves a thread.
Check out Martin's 1500m progression since starting college:
2023 (true freshman): 3:39.53
2024 (sophomore): 3:35.77
2025 (junior): 3:32.03
His championship results have also gotten better each year.
Also noteworthy: Martin is more than a year younger than Ethan Strand. Compare Martin this year at age 21 to Strand last year at the same age:
Strand: 3:35.60, 9th at NCAA championships, and 12th at U.S. championships
Martin: 3:32.03, 5th at NCAA championships, and 6th at U.S. championships
Keep up the great work, Gary!
I feel like at this point he sneaks up on you time and time again to remind you that he’s progressing at his pace and when it’s his time - it’s going to be a joy to witness. Looking forward to witnessing the rest of his career.
Great year for Gary, more to come as he keeps working on his form and speed.
He was surprisingly good at ncaa cross last year too. Looking forward to '25 xc.
Good point about xc. Yes, Martin finished 13th last fall. That's also significantly better than what Strand did as a junior at the same age: 45th.
This raises two questions:
Is it possible that Martin is a bigger talent than Strand? That may seem crazy to suggest, but it's clear Martin is ahead of where Strand was as a junior aged 21. Martin also ran significantly faster than Strand as a sophomore: 3:35.77 compared to 3:38.13. And remember that Martin ran sub-4 in high school; Strand did not.
Considering that Martin has been faster than Strand at each age since at least 18, and Strand ran 3:30.25 this year, what might Martin be capable of running next year if he stays healthy? I think 3:30-3:31 is reasonable. Any chance he runs under 3:30?
I really like Martin but he is not as talented as Strand. Strand has near perfect mechanics and an incredible finish. Gary doesn’t have those tools, at least not yet. And I agree with another poster that 5000 may be his best event long term.
Great year for Gary, more to come as he keeps working on his form and speed.
He was surprisingly good at ncaa cross last year too. Looking forward to '25 xc.
Good point about xc. Yes, Martin finished 13th last fall. That's also significantly better than what Strand did as a junior at the same age: 45th.
This raises two questions:
Is it possible that Martin is a bigger talent than Strand? That may seem crazy to suggest, but it's clear Martin is ahead of where Strand was as a junior aged 21. Martin also ran significantly faster than Strand as a sophomore: 3:35.77 compared to 3:38.13. And remember that Martin ran sub-4 in high school; Strand did not.
Considering that Martin has been faster than Strand at each age since at least 18, and Strand ran 3:30.25 this year, what might Martin be capable of running next year if he stays healthy? I think 3:30-3:31 is reasonable. Any chance he runs under 3:30?
Sorry, but not, this does not mean Martin is a better talent than Strand. He may be. He might not be. If anything I'd say that Strand's progress points to him being a better talent, but I would not go that far. It's just too early to say. Here's why:
* everyone matures at a different rate. Some 18 year olds are futher along in their physical and mental maturity than other are.
* not everyone starts running at the same age
* not everyone has the same training at an early age to optimally develop
* not everyone takes it as seriously at an early age
When I see a runner that was a 4:10 runner in HS, then 4:01, 3:57, 3:48. I see someone who either matured late, or suddenly took the sport seriously, or just finally got the right training or all the above.
None of this is to take away anything Martin has achieved, or what his ultimate potential is. We just can't say who will ultimately be better.
I don’t get all the recency bias here. Everyone assumes he’s less talented than Strand because of the season Strand has had. No one was calling Strand a super talent when he was running 3:39-3:38 and not scoring at NCAA’s last year, or when he got 12th at USA’s. Gary just ran 3:32 as a junior AND got 5th at USA’s. Who’s to say he doesn’t develop a kick next year and be the hot new kid on the block just like Strand was this year. Hindsight is 20/20 and discounting a guy who’s been consistently good (and improving) like Gary is a mistake.
I don’t get all the recency bias here. Everyone assumes he’s less talented than Strand because of the season Strand has had. No one was calling Strand a super talent when he was running 3:39-3:38 and not scoring at NCAA’s last year, or when he got 12th at USA’s. Gary just ran 3:32 as a junior AND got 5th at USA’s. Who’s to say he doesn’t develop a kick next year and be the hot new kid on the block just like Strand was this year. Hindsight is 20/20 and discounting a guy who’s been consistently good (and improving) like Gary is a mistake.
Definitely didn’t mean to discount him. Id just be cautious with the concept of a guy “simply” developing a kick in the 1500. I’d like to hear the precedent of that. Certainly you can develop a special kick in the 5,000 and up - Rupp, Nico, Grant, Aregawi. In the 1,500, though it seems almost innate.
I don’t get all the recency bias here. Everyone assumes he’s less talented than Strand because of the season Strand has had. No one was calling Strand a super talent when he was running 3:39-3:38 and not scoring at NCAA’s last year, or when he got 12th at USA’s. Gary just ran 3:32 as a junior AND got 5th at USA’s. Who’s to say he doesn’t develop a kick next year and be the hot new kid on the block just like Strand was this year. Hindsight is 20/20 and discounting a guy who’s been consistently good (and improving) like Gary is a mistake.
Definitely didn’t mean to discount him. Id just be cautious with the concept of a guy “simply” developing a kick in the 1500. I’d like to hear the precedent of that. Certainly you can develop a special kick in the 5,000 and up - Rupp, Nico, Grant, Aregawi. In the 1,500, though it seems almost innate.
Was Strand widely known for having a devastating kick as a junior? Please correct me if I'm wrong, but I don't think we was.
I just looked up some of Strand and Martin's championship race splits and watched some of their videos. Here are some observations:
2024 Strand got badly outkicked at both the indoor and outdoor NCAA championships. Indoors, he closed a 4:01-4:02 race in 27.51 while each of the top 3 guys closed in under 27. Outdoors, he closed a 3:39-3:40 race in 53.71 while the top 3 guys all closed in under 53.
This year, Martin outkicked Strand on the final lap of the DMR at NCAA indoors. To be fair, Strand got the baton nearly a second behind Martin. But Strand took the lead, and Martin passed him for the win, registering a 3:48.12 leg compared to Strand's 3:49.23.
We know there's a direct relationship between a runner's fitness level and his ability to access his kick in a race. The stronger an athlete is, the faster he can close, particularly in the fast championship races we're seeing these days. IIRC, Jakob has talked about that.
One of the things that stands out to me is the difference one year made in Strand's close at the U.S. championships. Here are his splits for both years:
2024: 56.98-58.82-56.45-46.85
2025: 57.00-58.53-55.65-39.09
Watching the video of last year's race, Strand look fried on the final lap and faded after coming through 1200 in 2:52. He had the worst final 300 of anyone in the field. This year, he came through 1200 in 2:51 in a similar type of race and was able to have the best final 300 of anyone in the field. I think the clear difference was he's a lot stronger this year.
Martin held up much better to the hot pace this year than Strand did last year. Martin came through 1200 in 2:51 and closed in 41-flat. If he's able to get stronger at age 22 like Strand did, he'll be able to close faster too.
Definitely didn’t mean to discount him. Id just be cautious with the concept of a guy “simply” developing a kick in the 1500. I’d like to hear the precedent of that. Certainly you can develop a special kick in the 5,000 and up - Rupp, Nico, Grant, Aregawi. In the 1,500, though it seems almost innate.
Was Strand widely known for having a devastating kick as a junior? Please correct me if I'm wrong, but I don't think we was.
I just looked up some of Strand and Martin's championship race splits and watched some of their videos. Here are some observations:
2024 Strand got badly outkicked at both the indoor and outdoor NCAA championships. Indoors, he closed a 4:01-4:02 race in 27.51 while each of the top 3 guys closed in under 27. Outdoors, he closed a 3:39-3:40 race in 53.71 while the top 3 guys all closed in under 53.
This year, Martin outkicked Strand on the final lap of the DMR at NCAA indoors. To be fair, Strand got the baton nearly a second behind Martin. But Strand took the lead, and Martin passed him for the win, registering a 3:48.12 leg compared to Strand's 3:49.23.
We know there's a direct relationship between a runner's fitness level and his ability to access his kick in a race. The stronger an athlete is, the faster he can close, particularly in the fast championship races we're seeing these days. IIRC, Jakob has talked about that.
One of the things that stands out to me is the difference one year made in Strand's close at the U.S. championships. Here are his splits for both years:
2024: 56.98-58.82-56.45-46.85
2025: 57.00-58.53-55.65-39.09
Watching the video of last year's race, Strand look fried on the final lap and faded after coming through 1200 in 2:52. He had the worst final 300 of anyone in the field. This year, he came through 1200 in 2:51 in a similar type of race and was able to have the best final 300 of anyone in the field. I think the clear difference was he's a lot stronger this year.
Martin held up much better to the hot pace this year than Strand did last year. Martin came through 1200 in 2:51 and closed in 41-flat. If he's able to get stronger at age 22 like Strand did, he'll be able to close faster too.
I’m correcting you because you’re wrong. Stand is literally infamous for having a devastating kick. He had a clearly terrible race at USAs last year which you shouldn’t really use as a data point to ascertain his kick.
In Alabama he was known as the guy who never really time trialled but always doubled and tripled at meets and closed in 27’s to win everything. One example is a 9:00 indoor 3200 he ran as a junior closing in 26 putting 4 seconds on Graham blanks
As a college sophomore he ran a 7:46 3k again closing in 26 putting 5 seconds on Wolfe. He also ran his sophomore 3:55.08 mile… with a 39.7 last 300. He had his national breakthrough last year as a junior closing a furiously tactical indoor mile at NCAA’s to way over perform and finish 4th. He closed his 3:48.32 this summer with a 1:52 final 800 and 26 second final 200.