How does the best American all year miss the team? Front running doesn’t work. Discus
Isn't that how Pre became a legend?
No. I don't know why people keep repeating the falsehood that Pre led all his races from the gun. Unless he was going for a record, he usually did what he did in the Olympics: run in the pack until the last 3-4 laps, then put in a long drive.
Never been a fan of the "front running doesn't work" argument.
That being said, Nuguse (who beat Hocker/Strand handidly at Pre) and Hoey (who hasn't lost to Hoppel this year) not being on the team is definitely supporting to that argument
I think Hoey made a pretty rational decision based on the evidence of his workouts, results, and the recent results of others and took a smart risk which just didn’t go his way. Not leading early and getting on the rail would have created a situation where he would have been boxed and possibly not made it anyway. This way he at least knew that gunning from the front would leave the least mistakes possible. He was clearly aiming for a 1:41 low to win wire to wire but just didn’t have it after the rounds.
And realistically he was not counting on a 16 year old running 1:42. Without that he'd be safely on the team.
How does the best American all year miss the team? Front running doesn’t work. Discus
Front running in an 800 is OK. Going out at 49.2 on a windy day is not. Note that Wanyonyi went out in 50.0 last year in Paris minimal wind. In the world record, Rudisha sent 49.2 but there was no wind and he is a superior athlete. 50.0-50.5 should’ve been the target for Hoey. As it worked out lotta clean races behind him.
Yeah you summed that up perfectly.
What was really a problem for Hoey wasn't just the 49.29 400m split, but the 23.8/9 opening 200m.
So obviously with those numbers you've gone 23.8/25.5 or thereabouts. As you said that's Rudisha level stuff and he did that in perfect conditions in a race with the biggest stakes and motivation possible.
I am surprised because after that now somewhat infamous workout with the 47.6 middle 400 followed by one where he was clearly really struggling, I believed that someone in his camp would have said to him "yeah so the way you felt in that final 400?, if you want to lead the national final you can not get too excited in the opening lap or else your going to feel like that and run a 53" - and that's exactly what happened.
Front running in an 800 is OK. Going out at 49.2 on a windy day is not. Note that Wanyonyi went out in 50.0 last year in Paris minimal wind. In the world record, Rudisha sent 49.2 but there was no wind and he is a superior athlete. 50.0-50.5 should’ve been the target for Hoey. As it worked out lotta clean races behind him.
Yeah you summed that up perfectly.
What was really a problem for Hoey wasn't just the 49.29 400m split, but the 23.8/9 opening 200m.
So obviously with those numbers you've gone 23.8/25.5 or thereabouts. As you said that's Rudisha level stuff and he did that in perfect conditions in a race with the biggest stakes and motivation possible.
I am surprised because after that now somewhat infamous workout with the 47.6 middle 400 followed by one where he was clearly really struggling, I believed that someone in his camp would have said to him "yeah so the way you felt in that final 400?, if you want to lead the national final you can not get too excited in the opening lap or else your going to feel like that and run a 53" - and that's exactly what happened.
Never been a fan of the "front running doesn't work" argument.
That being said, Nuguse (who beat Hocker/Strand handidly at Pre) and Hoey (who hasn't lost to Hoppel this year) not being on the team is definitely supporting to that argument
Front running does work. It's just dependent on venue and conditions. Hayward has a notoriously bad headwind on the back stretch, and it's also a super windy day. If those are things that I was aware of before the race, Hoey should have known too.
He ran a gutsy race, like Jakob in Paris, and almost pulled it off
He goes out in 49.2, and if he holds it and pulls it off, he’s a genius. unfortunately he really rigged in the last 100 and everyone is calling him an idiot now.
He goes out in 49.2, and if he holds it and pulls it off, he’s a genius. unfortunately he really rigged in the last 100 and everyone is calling him an idiot now.
Meh, your logic is flawed. Because whats the limit to this defense? 48.5 first lap? 47.5? It makes no difference - 49.3 was way too ambitious and almost certainly not necessary. Somebody else wants to run 49.3 from the front at 1.30pm in the afternoon? Please by all means.
Here is all that matters. Hoey is the reigning world indoor champion and as of right now he is still the US leader for 2025 in terms of best performance - but unless he wins the DL final he's not going to the World Championships. He had the ability to qualify for the team but the race execution he chose to employ cost him. He rigged in the last 100 because he ran 23.8 for the first 200.
I don't think he's an idiot at all. I think he got it very wrong today though.
How does the best American all year miss the team? Front running doesn’t work. Discus
Well to be fair, it’s worked for him a lot this year. I don’t know that we can even really say he choked. He did what he could to win given his fitness level, and came up short. We crowned him way too early. A scenario like this could have easily happened and it did. Hoey has nothing at all to be ashamed of.
He finished right behind Hoppel and ahead of Miller. Up until 2 days ago he thought they were his main competition and his strategy would have worked.
No one expected Brazier and Cooper to be that fast.
The guy ran 1:43.06. When three guys run 1:42 you shake their hand and say congrats.
The things aren’t completely unrelated. He led guys to a parade of PRs because he ran like a Diamond League pacer. We’ve seen plenty of frontrunning work out in the 800. If he went out in 50.0-51.0, it’s likely at least one of the three gets badly boxed, runs the whole thing wide, or doesn’t run patiently enough.
The math is quite simple. He has ran the fastest this year only Hoppel and Brazier can compete and he has ran from the front a lot.
The math is If he runs from the front only 2 guys can go with if he runs 1:42 which he has done this year.
Unfortunately for him he did not run 1:42 but it wouldn't have mattered because nobody expected the 16 yearold to run 1:42 low.
The math is running 50/52 is an easier way to run 1:42 than 49/53. The nuance is having to deal with traffic. Brazier could have had a messy run if things didn’t open up that last 100m
Well to be fair, it’s worked for him a lot this year. I don’t know that we can even really say he choked. He did what he could to win given his fitness level, and came up short. We crowned him way too early. A scenario like this could have easily happened and it did. Hoey has nothing at all to be ashamed of.
He finished right behind Hoppel and ahead of Miller. Up until 2 days ago he thought they were his main competition and his strategy would have worked.
No one expected Brazier and Cooper to be that fast.
What??? Everyone knew Brazier was coming on strong and capable of sub 1:43.