USA 1500m Final result today proves yet again the Jakob is still the best

Well yes and no.

I struggle with saying he's the best in the world right now given he hasn't raced in almost 5 months, but over the last 3-4 seasons he has been the best in the world at running the 1500m in terms of a really important facet in measuring ones ability in the event - the time to run it. Now in another facet he's struggled by his standards and we all know what that is by now.

I do think yesterdays result does show how hard and fickle the sport can be - and ultimately how razor thin the margins are.

Exactly one year ago yesterday, Yared Nuguse ran 3.36.56 in the first round of the 2024 Olympic Games and 4 days later he was an Olympic medalist and sub 3.28 guy that had finally made the "leap". He won Zurich a few weeks later and it appeared like he had kind of completed the puzzle of being able to run times (sub 3.44 mile) and also win medals. He starts the season running an indoor world mile record and a lot of pundits are wondering that given we haven't seen a (clean) repeat global gold medalist for almost 20 years, would he be the guy to get it done in 2025. As we sit here today he is now going to have to embark on an epic gauntlet of DL races just to qualify for the final and then he's going to have to win it just to repeat his 2024 exploits of just toeing the line in the first round of a major championships.

But here is an honest question - replace Yared yesterday with Jakob. Hot and sunny afternoon, little bit of breeze around. He takes the field out in 56.23, 1.54.6 and 2.50.5 at 1200 - which given it's a national final and not a world final is quite plausible. Can he also match/better the sub 39.6 finishes of Koech, Strand and Hocker? And it's not even that - it's the sub 13 finishes of all of those guys (like way under 13) - because I don't know if I could unequivocally say he could.

When he doesn’t win the 1500m at worlds for the 4th straight global championship will you still say this?

I think we’re unfairly rating him in the other facet we’re talking about and he still has the best record of placement there.

I think he can match those finishes. I believe the race might play out differently but of course that is a cop out answer. I think he can match those finishes because he is simply better than these guys. I know, sounds stupid. Just my opinion though. But this is pretty irrelevant because he still is the perennial guy which was the point of my OP.

My guess is he finishes quicker than Nuguse did here, but I think you are correct.

But the scenario is wrong. The real question is what happens when he goes out in 57, 55.5, 55.5 and comes through 1200 in 2:48? Does he have enough cushion to hold off the guys closing in 39-mid?

If anything, the 12.5 second last 100s of these guys make me start to think Jakob is going to front run again. It seems dumb to try something that has failed 3 times in a row, but what else can he do?

Most likely. Depends on how he performs in Silesia and the diamond league final

the joke is yet again on all these idiots who love this "heats + top 3" qualifying structure to go to the higher level "heats + top 3" champs

The parallel diamond league final is the real championship, but will never amount to anything because everyone still wants this ridiculous tournament

no runner is consistent enough to always win out in a "heats + top 3" series. That includes the clearly best runner.

Results show the top 7 of this final under the WC standard. Here's a clever idea: set the WC standard a little harder, and the top 12 runners under that standard are all in the WC final. No heats, no semis, make every race all season count. That should be the "trials"

God these Jakob fanbois are next level delusional 😂

Watch what happens when he loses WC next month when fading to 4th/5th after rabbiting the whole race

I don't believe he's gonna try to rabbit from the first lap again.

Last year, I think he believed he only needed to worry about Kerr. He knows it's deep now.

We'll see.

I'd hope not, but I still don't think that means he has any better chance of winning than he did before.

The 1500m becomes more otherworldly each season. It's not gonna be easy for him and I don't think the odds are in his favor anymore

I think you missed the point…

I agree, front running is reliable when done correctly

Totally agree. Although you might hit a problem of too many people with a standard. But there are some potential fixes to that.

lol absurd

Yes. Jakob is a special athlete among many very good athletes.

Olympic golds in 1500 / 5k and 7:17 in 3k.

I remember the bad old days when US 1500 championships were usually sit-and-kick. Ironically, the women's race was like that this year.

Hate to break it to you, but odd are we will probably be back there again within the next 4-5 years. Quite simply if neither Hocker or Nuguse were around concurrently we would probably be looking at "old school" 2min through 800, 56 third lap (only really running hard starting at 1000m), 38.5 to close sort of races. It's just the nature of how things go I think.

that's why you just take the top 12, by form.

don't even really need a standard, just set a deadline, and say, top 12 by then is in. Every single race will be someone potentially getting knocked out. Everyone will try to run fast times to get several sports above #12 and not have to worry.

Global championship finals. Paris is now the benchmark for Jakob.

That's where he is now in global finals. He is in decline in relation to the best in the event.