Nuguse:
Most consistent. Has the biggest arsenal to be able to lead and guarantee a spot on the team or kick off a fast pace (if someone else sets one). Only vulnerable in a race closer to 3:40
Hocker:
The Olympic Champ. On paper, like last year, he’s not had any extremely dominant wins in the 15 yet, but is ahead of 2024 in every event. Even if lightnight doesn’t strike with his peak (3:27) like last year and get him on the Tokyo podium, he’s borderline a lock for the team
Nathan Green:
I think Green/Kessler/Strand are all fighting tooth and nail for third in this race. I’m picking Green because his kick is as good as Strand’s and he seems to have the least to lose of the three. Kessler has a spot on the team to defend, and Strand is not to be trusted tactically. Seems to have had the most poise this year and his kick is as good as just about anyone in the field
Kessler:
If he misses his spot, I’m imagining it will be by a fraction. He’s very consistent and has proven himself under pressure, but Pre was a tough look, especially with how look his fellow Olympians and the college guys are looking. Hoping I’m wrong and he comes into his own and wins the whole thing, but fear it may not be his year
Strand:
Crazy upside, Pre was promising and NCAAs was the most impressive (and frustrating) 2nd place finish I’ve seen in some time. I just haven’t seen him put it “all together” before, and his lifetime head to head against Green is abysmal. I think his best shot will be in a 3:33 ish race because we’ve seen him be able to kick off that. Any slower, and I’m not confident he’ll be in the right spot. Any faster, I think he could get dropped if Trials last year is any indication.
Luke Houser:
A year ago thought he was the least talented of his Washington buddies but the World Indoor gold and 3:33 win this summer was super promising. Outside shot, but a shot nonetheless if the race is slower or he has a breakout
Ciattei:
Would love to see him get payback for the Trials fourth, but unless he’s reached a new level at 30, I just don’t think he’s beating all the younger contenders
Liam Murphy:
If he makes the final, should have the strength to hang in a faster race. The storyline of redeeming NCAAs is fun, but him beating the 5-6 guys listed already is a longshot
Sam Prakel:
Mister consistent, can’t see him making the team but would also be shocked not to see him in the final
Abel Teffra:
Similar narrative to Murphy, but less likely to last in a 3:29-3:31 race. I expect he’ll be a bigger factor as he develops his engine
Ben Allen:
Hoping he’s ready for a breakout and a sponsor. In a sea of 3:33 guys, but seems to be on the upswing
Gary Martin:
Should probably have him higher up, but I think in a field this good, he might still be an also ran. So many guys around his PRs on paper though, that he could break through and shock everyone