Should be interesting to see who makes team USA now in the 400. Syd seems like a safe bet, Butler has shown solid form post NCAAs, Whittakers times have been getting slower but could be due to her training block. Though its tricky with an Arkansas athlete. I think Holmes will be 49.8 shape at USAs which might nap a spot if others falter, Irby-Jackson has recaptured her 2018 form but could be this years Kendall Ellis, Kaylyn Brown is in uncertain form. My dark horse that i would love to see make it is Britton Wilson. I will go with Syd, Butler, Wilson.
There are 3 diamond leagues after USAs…if she’d fail I’m sure she could qualify for the final and then win
Only Silesia and Brussels have the 400 hurdles; Lausanne does not.
Current standings for 400m Hurdles
Bol 32
Knight 25
Muhammad 22
Folorunso 22
Woodruff 18
Zapletalova 16
Clayton 11
van der Walt 9
Nielsen 8
Jones 7
Iuel 7
Top-8 make it to the Finals. If SML would enter and win both Silesia and Brussels, she would have 16 points, putting her in 6th place right now. Whether or not she finishes in the top-8 will depend upon how well van der Walt, Nielsen, Jones, and Iuel fair. If two of them can get to 17 points, SML will be out. Point ties are broken by best performance of the year so if there is a tie for 8th, SML will certainly get in.
I just hope she knows the rules this time. She clearly didn't last year.
Should be interesting to see who makes team USA now in the 400. Syd seems like a safe bet, Butler has shown solid form post NCAAs, Whittakers times have been getting slower but could be due to her training block. Though its tricky with an Arkansas athlete. I think Holmes will be 49.8 shape at USAs which might nap a spot if others falter, Irby-Jackson has recaptured her 2018 form but could be this years Kendall Ellis, Kaylyn Brown is in uncertain form. My dark horse that i would love to see make it is Britton Wilson. I will go with Syd, Butler, Wilson.
I don't think Syd is a safe bet to make the team, though the odds are certainly in her favor. Whittaker has been the standout for me this year from the DL circuit, although her times have been trending in the wrong direction. I'm curious if Gabby will decide to contest the 400 too because she could be a serious threat.
If I had to pick three out of a hat right now, I'd say SML, Butler, and Whittaker, but I wouldn't put a lot of money on any of them.
Wow. My rash judgment was 'how stupid are Kersee and SML', but she has literally outgrown the event. Bol will win a Mickey Mouse title, and Syd will podium, maybe hunt a WR in the 400 if all goes to plan.
i'm not sure how you think this is a "risk?" same distance without having to jump hurdles.
95% chance of gold in 400h vs a lot less than that in the open. "risk"
that's a sporting decision, not a physical risk. as someone who tripped over the last hurdle a couple times and ate track, the hurdle monster is always an injury risk, and at the speed she goes, i think the muscle pull risk is same either way.
she has 4 olympic and 3 worlds golds, plus the WR, she could redundantly add to that legacy as the biggest deal at that event, or she could chase the AR or WR and worlds gold at 400 and if she pulls that off we can start talking GOAT creds.
95% chance of gold in 400h vs a lot less than that in the open. "risk"
that's a sporting decision, not a physical risk. as someone who tripped over the last hurdle a couple times and ate track, the hurdle monster is always an injury risk, and at the speed she goes, i think the muscle pull risk is same either way.
she has 4 olympic and 3 worlds golds, plus the WR, she could redundantly add to that legacy as the biggest deal at that event, or she could chase the AR or WR and worlds gold at 400 and if she pulls that off we can start talking GOAT creds.
did the previous poster say "physical risk?"
do you really believe physical risks are the only type of risks?
re trials, yeah, anything could happen, but unlike olympics and mu, she can slide over to DL and fix any failures. the "but whittaker in the DL" or "but we have good runners in the event" arguments are less convincing when she's topped the national performance list at least the last 2 years in the quarter, with a time faster than the people ahead of her on the 2025 list, when she's only run so much.
or, the "no bs" talent argument would be, there's a reason she's routinely on the 4x4 teams. and if by chance she missed it, if she's healthy they'd hand her a ticket for relays, and she'd go to DL to fix it.
re DL, she could pick either event, and the wild card goes to the finals winner in zurich, not the points leader in the series. so she only needs the points to make the 8-9 finalists for zurich, and then win there. those places are currently around 10 points. that's 1-2 meets. there would be 3 meets left before the final.
that's a sporting decision, not a physical risk. as someone who tripped over the last hurdle a couple times and ate track, the hurdle monster is always an injury risk, and at the speed she goes, i think the muscle pull risk is same either way.
she has 4 olympic and 3 worlds golds, plus the WR, she could redundantly add to that legacy as the biggest deal at that event, or she could chase the AR or WR and worlds gold at 400 and if she pulls that off we can start talking GOAT creds.
did the previous poster say "physical risk?"
do you really believe physical risks are the only type of risks?
when someone is top of the national performance list at both events, and top handful globally, it is not a real "risk" to pick either. you're basically making a circular argument. you want her in x. ergo anything but x is a risk to you.
i'd say your athlete gets bored and retires is a risk, too.
she has "messed around and got a triple double" occasionally doing the 400 as a lark. she keeps herself very fit. and i think she can make a go at the AR. i think she's generational and naser/paulino are this week's flavor. you train her up like a specialist i think she dusts them.
I am ecstatic that SML will run the 400M instead of the 400H. She needs allow lesser mortals to tangle with that 400H event, now.
Some of these comments are so freaking weird; given that they are from people who up to earlier this year were making stupid posts calling for her to double. So what if she doesn't win gold in the 400M, the point is that she's giving it a try.
I for one am looking forward to the battle between, her, Paulino, Naser. I hope it lives up to expectation.
Will face tough competition in the 400m. Certainly will have her hands full. Better to focus on that event.
Syd is too good in the 400 IH. Makes sense to pass.
Agreed. The only thing left to accomplish in the 400H is a sub 50. Meh to another Olympic or World's gold. Plus, if she substantially improves her flat 400M time, she can always return to the 400H and go even faster in that event.
Should be interesting to see who makes team USA now in the 400. Syd seems like a safe bet, Butler has shown solid form post NCAAs, Whittakers times have been getting slower but could be due to her training block. Though its tricky with an Arkansas athlete. I think Holmes will be 49.8 shape at USAs which might nap a spot if others falter, Irby-Jackson has recaptured her 2018 form but could be this years Kendall Ellis, Kaylyn Brown is in uncertain form. My dark horse that i would love to see make it is Britton Wilson. I will go with Syd, Butler, Wilson.
Good analysis. I'm going with these three as well. I hope Ellis is nowhere around. Not another darn Olympic fiasco.