What big barriers remain in athletics?

I said this in another thread, but no runner has ever run more than 20 seconds under 60s/lap in any event. This would correspond to the following barriers:

400m: 40
600m: 1:10
800m: 1:40
1000m: 2:10
1500m: 3:25
Mile: 3:41.28
2000m: 4:40
3000m: 7:10

Obviously, the first and last are unrealistic, but many of the others are the major barriers in those events. In that sense, this is a sort of "meta-barrier" for the entire sport. I don't expect very many people to take interest in this meta-barrier, but it's of great interest to me.

The best event in which to achieve this is probably the 1000m, but given that the 800m and 1500m are run much more often, any of those three events is a decent bet to be first.

I've been in and around the sport since the 1980s and never thought about this on a meta level before. Thanks for the post.

It would have been gimmicky but fun to set up the off-distance 4k/ten minute barrier a few years ago. But it's too late now for it to have much drama around it, given how close the 5k record is now to that pace, and given how low Ingebrigtsen recently pushed the 3k record. Still, given that 4k and 10 minutes are both big round numbers, it would be fun even now to see an off-distance challenge event where the best 3k/5k runners in the world went for it. To increase the difficulty the challenge could be to see how many laps under 60 seconds a runner could maintain, which would be slightly more challenging than simply hitting sub 10-minute for 4k. And who knows, maybe Ingy could squeeze an 11th lap out at that pace. On field events, one barrier that I'm not sure anyone mentioned, but for us Luddites who are still used to the English system, the 30 foot long jump barrier remains a big deal. Reportedly Carl Lewis exceeded that way back in the day, but the jump was controversially ruled a scratch and there weren't video cameras to do any follow-up analysis, so who knows.

The great Barrier Reef!

The biggest barrier is to achieve a dope-free sport.

Sub-6 in 100km.

I think there are runners who are capable of breaking 6 in 100km. They are currently running 42.195km because it is more lucrative.

Hurdles and the steeplechase.

The big barrier is actual women's records since in the near future they will all be broken by biological males.

Sub 2 hours pikes peak ascent

No, thanks. T&F is a great sport just the way it is. There’s no point in wasting time and fitness on a bunch of moronic events.

Obviously this is a really relevant topic and I've been thinking about it a bit too with respect to FK.

I think there are a lot of barriers that mean a lot to track fans and I think you got them all here. But one thing I would say upon reflection, the sub 4 mile for a female athlete - even though it was so much further off than many of these barriers, is by far the biggest and most relatable one to the average public and from a "story" perspective.

The all-time barriers in track are the sub 4 mile first, the sub 10 100m second and kind of everything else well behind. And even though both are really far off for women (both unlikely to be done in my lifetime in the very least), you just saw first hand how a brand could take the 4min barrier and not just build a compelling story around with respect to Kipyegon attempt to run it, but also back it up with the mystery around "superspikes" and "aeronodes" and "3.48% improvements due to pacing" - to the point that so many people believed it was possible. And there are people out there with no concept of what 6+ seconds in a mile means, that not only think she was close, but that we are on the doorstep of it happening. Crazy but true.

Even though it's almost certainly less likely to happen than a sub 100 800m, a sub 12.30 5000m or a legit sub 2 hour marathon, the answer to what is now the biggest barrier remaining in athletics has become the sub 4 mile for a woman, as absurd as that sounds.

It saddens me that the Kipchoge stunt takes the shine off the sub-2 hour marathon barrier. Whenever that is finally achieved there will be an asterisk against the historic nature of the performance.

For the same reason, I'd much rather not see the women's sub-4 go down in another Nike clown-show.

The biggest barrier is for you to shut the f*** up.

Sub 30 300m. They have gotten there up to 250m. Imagine 3 sub 10s.

Another interesting one would be last runner on each lap is eliminated or one where two runners start at 200m until one gets caught.

Or starting at having to run under 70 sec for the first lap and then every lap has to be one second faster, 69 etc. You dont have to go fast as long as you make the cut ofd time. Record is the most laps ie where it ends.

Or 1km or mile uphill at 10% grade.

Last but not least, for workout warriors, fastest average time for 10 x 400m off 60 second rest.

Not a chance. Even with all these 1:41 guys, the fastest is only .6 seconds faster than what Coe ran 44 years ago. As the population of great 800m runners has grown, there has been a tremendous increase in depth, but Rudisha’s time, or a few tenths faster, represents the upper human limit for the distance.

1:39 is ridiculous. It’s equivalent to running a 3:21.8 1500m.

None of them are going to happen except maybe the 1500m. For example, a 4:40 2000m is 3:30 1500m pace. All of the WRs have solidified after years of great runners participating, new WRs will rarely happen and any improvements will be by fractions of a second.

Why would it take the shine off someone breaking 2:00? You think Kipchoge’s sub-2 was anything more than a stunt? If he had run a race that day, he probably would have run a 2:02.

Kiptum’s 2:00.35 was the real deal, and with better pacing, he would have broken 2:00.

8:00 3000m women

No. 1:39:99 is equivalent to 3:24:00 in WA scoring table.

I believe there is a decent probability to see the 1:40 barrier being broken in the coming 20-30 years.