Good shout, but even though he's gotten some good wins over 1500/mile I'd need to see him run 3:27 at minimum before I'd believe it. Ngeny was a 3:26 (converted) runner with incredible wheels - truly monstrous at this distance.
Ngeny's WR was hardly optimised. The first lap was a whooping 49 (first 200 in 23 secs). If he was a little more conservative like Coe, he could've run significantly faster. And Wanyonyi doesn't need a 3:27 to pull that off because he's a 1:41 low runner.
Yeah, exactly. If Wanyonyi is in 1:41/3:29 shape he’s likely capable of the 1K record, and given everything we’ve seen in the last 2 seasons, I believe he’s in 1:41/3:29 shape (maybe even faster at 1500).
Why not? 1:42 low at 800 and now 3:29-high at 1500... matches peak Coe at 1500 and only 0.5 back at 800...
It is widely acknowledged that Coes 1K WR of 2:12.18 is one if the five greatest runs in the history of T&F. IMO it IS the greatest But Hoey could do it given that Ostrava 15.
Coe #2 AT and Cram #3 AT with their 2:12s...both 40 plus years ago...time for an assault.
Coe's 2:12.18 was on par with his 1:41.73. Just astonishing for such a rarely run distance. It definitely is one of the greatest records in athletics history. Now, 44 years later, the record from Ngeny is still just 0.22 faster. Now the 1000m WR is the "weakest" from all men's running WRs. It really "should" be sub 2:11, and while looking at the recent improvements over both the 800m and the 1500m, sub 2:10 shouldn't be out of reach in the seasons to come.
The first candidate is Wanyonyi. But also others like Hoey really should go for it.
This is nonsense. 2:11.96 may not be on par with the 800m and 1500m records, but it is not as weak as you make it out to be. Yes the distance is not contested as much, and so yes the odds are it will be a weaker record, but the guy who did it was as good as anyone competing today. So yes EW and MA in particular could possibly snare the record, but neither of them are going to be running under 2:10, or even 2:10 for that matter. So just get that notion out of your mind. I think Sedjati would have as good a shot as Hoey, which is to say a low probability.
Agree that it’s ridiculous the OP didn’t even mention the actual world record holder and just talked about Coe/Cram. No chance Hocker, even in Olympic fitness, is breaking the 1,000m world record.
Ngeny's was a EPO monster. Coe's 2:12 is the legit WR. It's not even debatable.
Quite obviously Coevett
In any case, I think the American record is a much more realistic ask. Would love to see a Hoey vs Kessler showdown for that.
Ngeny's was a EPO monster. Coe's 2:12 is the legit WR. It's not even debatable.
Quite obviously Coevett
In any case, I think the American record is a much more realistic ask. Would love to see a Hoey vs Kessler showdown for that.
Well if we are discussing the US record, Nuguse has, on paper, the best shot, with his 1:44 and 3:43 credentials. However, he may not be in that sort of shape very often, as few are.
It is widely acknowledged that Coes 1K WR of 2:12.18 is one if the five greatest runs in the history of T&F.
lol is it bro?
Dude, only one person - a Kenyan loaded with full-throttle EPO - has bettered it in nearly half-a-century. It would probably equate to 2:10 flat today. People already admitting on this thread that there's nobody around today who could beat it, so don't give me that 'rarely run' crap.
Dude, only one person - a Kenyan loaded with full-throttle EPO - has bettered it in nearly half-a-century. It would probably equate to 2:10 flat today. People already admitting on this thread that there's nobody around today who could beat it, so don't give me that 'rarely run' crap.
When you choose your user name to be Coe-vett, one knows that your idolatry for the two distinguished Brits will invariably cloud your judgment, and emotions will get the best of you.
Agree that it’s ridiculous the OP didn’t even mention the actual world record holder and just talked about Coe/Cram. No chance Hocker, even in Olympic fitness, is breaking the 1,000m world record.
Ngeny's was a EPO monster. Coe's 2:12 is the legit WR. It's not even debatable.
Unsubstantiated claim, bottom of the barrel you are as well.
Ngeny's was a EPO monster. Coe's 2:12 is the legit WR. It's not even debatable.
Of course it's debatable:
A) Ngeny never tested positive for anything so we can only speculate. B) Coe never tested positive for anything so we can only speculate.
The '90s had rampant doping + poor testing but the '80s had even worse testing. There's no way to definitively conclude that either of them were clean. We just don't know.
What this board fails to grasp is that the top 8 guys are so sharp, they don’t improve like distance runners. The time they open with in the 1500 is usually about what they’ll close with at the end of the year. So it's a very different progression.
Coe's 2:12.18 was on par with his 1:41.73. Just astonishing for such a rarely run distance. It definitely is one of the greatest records in athletics history. Now, 44 years later, the record from Ngeny is still just 0.22 faster. Now the 1000m WR is the "weakest" from all men's running WRs. It really "should" be sub 2:11, and while looking at the recent improvements over both the 800m and the 1500m, sub 2:10 shouldn't be out of reach in the seasons to come.
The first candidate is Wanyonyi. But also others like Hoey really should go for it.
This is nonsense. 2:11.96 may not be on par with the 800m and 1500m records, but it is not as weak as you make it out to be. Yes the distance is not contested as much, and so yes the odds are it will be a weaker record, but the guy who did it was as good as anyone competing today. So yes EW and MA in particular could possibly snare the record, but neither of them are going to be running under 2:10, or even 2:10 for that matter. So just get that notion out of your mind. I think Sedjati would have as good a shot as Hoey, which is to say a low probability.
1:40.91 is worth around 2:11.0.
The "guy who did it" (Ngeny) definitely was not the "perfect" 1000m guy.
When Coe has run 2:12.18, the Marathon WR was 2:09:01 - now performance no. 3029... (other marks: 3:31.36, 4:51.52, 13:08.4)
The 1500m WR will soon be bettered, maybe below 3:25. And also the 800m mark is under serious threat, maybe 1:40.5 is coming.
Yes, the 1000m mark currently is the "weakest" of all men's running WRs. There were so few really serious attempts over the years, that we are used to seeing 2:14 as a great time. It isn't.
Nobody really cares about the distance. Maybe this changes in the next years a little bit. Without any doubt Wanyonyi is capable to break this record.
One of the most common mistakes people make is talk about PBs. When calculating potential to run a certain distance we need to consider SBs instead. Logically, you need to be able to have a certain 800m and 1500m capability within the same season and not with years in between. Therefore Coe's 3:29.77 in 1986 had no impact on his ability to run the 1k WR in 1981. In 1981 he ran a SB of 3:31.95, just 4 days before setting the 1k WR.
So when comparing Hoey's SBs to the SBs of Ngeny, Coe, Cram and Makhloufi, I came to a conclusion that Hoey is very well indeed in shape to take a legit attempt at the 1k WR. His results this year already show significantly more potential than Makhloufi had in 2015 and slightly more than Coe in 1981 or Cram in 1985.
On the side note, I did some calculations and can say that Ngeny had to be at least in 1:42.95 shape in 1999, when he ran the 1k WR.
This is nonsense. 2:11.96 may not be on par with the 800m and 1500m records, but it is not as weak as you make it out to be. Yes the distance is not contested as much, and so yes the odds are it will be a weaker record, but the guy who did it was as good as anyone competing today. So yes EW and MA in particular could possibly snare the record, but neither of them are going to be running under 2:10, or even 2:10 for that matter. So just get that notion out of your mind. I think Sedjati would have as good a shot as Hoey, which is to say a low probability.
1:40.91 is worth around 2:11.0.
The "guy who did it" (Ngeny) definitely was not the "perfect" 1000m guy.
When Coe has run 2:12.18, the Marathon WR was 2:09:01 - now performance no. 3029... (other marks: 3:31.36, 4:51.52, 13:08.4)
The 1500m WR will soon be bettered, maybe below 3:25. And also the 800m mark is under serious threat, maybe 1:40.5 is coming.
Yes, the 1000m mark currently is the "weakest" of all men's running WRs. There were so few really serious attempts over the years, that we are used to seeing 2:14 as a great time. It isn't.
Nobody really cares about the distance. Maybe this changes in the next years a little bit. Without any doubt Wanyonyi is capable to break this record.
OK but part of your point would be analogous to saying that when Flo Jo ran 10.49 the men’s marathon world record was 2:07:12, and so the women’s 100m record should be like 10.20, and of course this makes no sense, or to say the women’s record was 2:21:06, so the 100m record should be something outrageous. The logic doesn’t necessarily follow, at least not to any great extent. I do see that the record could easily be close to 2:11.00, but 2:11.96 is solid, yet more breakable than 3:26 for sure.
One of the most common mistakes people make is talk about PBs. When calculating potential to run a certain distance we need to consider SBs instead. Logically, you need to be able to have a certain 800m and 1500m capability within the same season and not with years in between. Therefore Coe's 3:29.77 in 1986 had no impact on his ability to run the 1k WR in 1981. In 1981 he ran a SB of 3:31.95, just 4 days before setting the 1k WR.
So when comparing Hoey's SBs to the SBs of Ngeny, Coe, Cram and Makhloufi, I came to a conclusion that Hoey is very well indeed in shape to take a legit attempt at the 1k WR. His results this year already show significantly more potential than Makhloufi had in 2015 and slightly more than Coe in 1981 or Cram in 1985.
On the side note, I did some calculations and can say that Ngeny had to be at least in 1:42.95 shape in 1999, when he ran the 1k WR.
Of course your first point is correct and obvious to me, but I will add that it might even be a mistake to use seasonal bests instead of seasonal capacities, which admittedly are quite speculative, but as you note, Ngeny was capable of more than what he showed at 800m. So we often use personal bests because that is what we have access to, and yes, this is going to be somewhat inaccurate at times due to one not having personal best capacity at all distances simultaneously. That is partially why some choose to look at results and. It speculate too much.
Dude, only one person - a Kenyan loaded with full-throttle EPO - has bettered it in nearly half-a-century. It would probably equate to 2:10 flat today. People already admitting on this thread that there's nobody around today who could beat it, so don't give me that 'rarely run' crap.
So Coe was as fast as an EPO-loaded Kenyan (your claim), you say? humm... Sus.
Considering that 1k WR is worth 1250 IAAF points, I thought of some calculations based on the SBs of some elite runners. The average of their 800m SB worth of points and their 1500m SB worth of points could be a very good indicator on their 1000m ability.
Here is the ranking. Current athletes are marked in bold:
In an ideal world where every record is equally strong, you should see a smooth curve, going up for a while, peaking, and going back down. Aside from small exceptions for factors like the start in sprinting and curve vs. straightaway, this phenomenon is as close to a "law of nature" as you're going to get in our sport.
(In fact, there's nothing special about 60-second pace. Pick your favorite reference pace, and plot world records or your PB paces relative to this pace, and you should see a similar curve).
What we see actually approximates the ideal very, very well! At the short end, the distances are too short to really gain much on 60-second pace, while at the long end, fatigue pulls the pace back. The peak is clearly in the middle, probably somewhere between 800m and 1500m. In fact, judging by the rest of the events, 1000m seems to be just about at the peak of the curve!
This is very suggestive that the 1000m record is probably a bit weaker than most of the others, and that an equally strong record would be around 2:10.7. That estimate certainly isn't definitive, but I do think there's a fair amount of room to drop if someone like Wanyonyi gave it a really good go.
One of the most common mistakes people make is talk about PBs. When calculating potential to run a certain distance we need to consider SBs instead. Logically, you need to be able to have a certain 800m and 1500m capability within the same season and not with years in between. Therefore Coe's 3:29.77 in 1986 had no impact on his ability to run the 1k WR in 1981. In 1981 he ran a SB of 3:31.95, just 4 days before setting the 1k WR.
So when comparing Hoey's SBs to the SBs of Ngeny, Coe, Cram and Makhloufi, I came to a conclusion that Hoey is very well indeed in shape to take a legit attempt at the 1k WR. His results this year already show significantly more potential than Makhloufi had in 2015 and slightly more than Coe in 1981 or Cram in 1985.
On the side note, I did some calculations and can say that Ngeny had to be at least in 1:42.95 shape in 1999, when he ran the 1k WR.
Your point about seasonal bests (and more relevantly as a later post mentioned, seasonal capabilities) is a good one. Note that Coe's SB of 3:31.95 in 1981 is likely substantially worse than his seasonal capability that year. For one, he ran a 3:47.33 mile in 1981.
And his 3:31.95 1500 race was marred by horrendous pacemaking when the rabbit went out insanely fast, so that (1) he got no drafting benefit, and (2) his first two laps of 1:49.1 are still probably the fastest first 800 of any 1500/mile record attempt in history. With a more measured first part of the race, he was likely capable of a time about two seconds faster that night.