The top Kenyan and Ethiopian women are 20-30s faster than the Americans over 5K. No American woman has ever medaled in the 5K at Worlds / Olympics.
I know you specifically ask about the 5k, but in 2008 Shalane Flanagan got bronze (now silver) in the 10k. No men medaled in any distance event in Beijing. In 2023-2024, it was basically just a Shalane-equivalent in Grant Fisher. I think talent just ebbs and flows. The bigger question might be why the US men are overflowing with talent at 1500m.
The top Kenyan and Ethiopian women are 20-30s faster than the Americans over 5K. No American woman has ever medaled in the 5K at Worlds / Olympics.
I know you specifically ask about the 5k, but in 2008 Shalane Flanagan got bronze (now silver) in the 10k. No men medaled in any distance event in Beijing. In 2023-2024, it was basically just a Shalane-equivalent in Grant Fisher. I think talent just ebbs and flows. The bigger question might be why the US men are overflowing with talent at 1500m.
My pet theory is that this is because there is a two-tiered standard to earn a good living among the best female Americans (or Euros) vs Africans. Right now, to have a chance to make a US team and earn a good living at 5k you need to be 14:50ish. Parker Valby just got what might be the biggest shoe deal ever and she has never broken 14:50. That puts her 300 behind Chebet in Rome. If she was East African, no way she gets anything like that unless she’s sub 14:20. Thats where the East Africans need to be to get a diamond league invite. There are two different sets of goal posts professionally right now. 50 seconds off the men’s WR is 13:25. That’s not getting you squat on the men’s side. If Nike & New Balance only sponsored sub 14:20 women, I think you’d see a half dozen Americans getting there. Nico and Graham do consistent 100 mile weeks. Grant’s at 90, I think. Betcha Cranny, Morgan, Andrews, Schweitzer are way lower than that. The most talented American women don’t have to take the kind of training risks that the men have to take to earn a good living. People respond to incentives.
Doping helps women more than men. US women need to dope to be competitive
Oh they’re probably all doping. Look at that so called “breakthrough” 5k Andrews ran all of a sudden at age 29 as an example
It’s not plausible that “they’re all doping.” But, in a way, you’re on the right theme, for me: they might as well all be on drugs if there is such a number of those that are (using.)
for a couple decades it’s been tough for me to ignore—or not be sickened by—*just the awareness* that untold numbers of people on podiums, crushing records, and stuffing their pocket$ got there by cheating. It’s to me a kind of sickness. This cloud of doubt may never lift.
This post was edited 2 minutes after it was posted.
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The top Kenyan and Ethiopian women are 20-30s faster than the Americans over 5K. No American woman has ever medaled in the 5K at Worlds / Olympics.
I know you specifically ask about the 5k, but in 2008 Shalane Flanagan got bronze (now silver) in the 10k. No men medaled in any distance event in Beijing. In 2023-2024, it was basically just a Shalane-equivalent in Grant Fisher. I think talent just ebbs and flows. The bigger question might be why the US men are overflowing with talent at 1500m.
Yes, and it was openly published that Shalane was in thyroid meds then.
Also, and I'm sure this is going to be unpopular, but I think that starting in high school, boys and girls train pretty differently. For example, what Jane Hedengren is doing--running 55 mpw with a couple of high-quality workouts--is exceedingly rare. Maybe < one in 5000 XC/track girls train like that in the US. If you define 55 miles a week for boys and 45 miles a week for girls as "serious" and 65 miles a week for boys and 55 miles a week for girls as "very serious," I think there are 10x boys hitting those standards vs. girls. The differences in commitment and approach are real, starting at a young age. And they are not just explainable based on gender differences. From what I understand of East African programs, there is very little difference in the way boys and girls approach training. It's doubles most days, and it's sink or swim from day one. I think Americans treat girls like they're made out of glass. If you're an American high school coach and you tell a group of high school girls to run 50 mpw, you will be vilified and may even face formal complaints. Meanwhile, the East African junior elite are running 70-80 mpw without any compunction about it.
I mean, we all know that Newbury Park was very serious training (up to 80 mile week blocks?). Nico was doing pro prep training starting at 14. Blanks took a gap year during COVID to just run a ton. Other than Hedengren (who I think is the next American with a real shot to challenge the East Africans), what talented girls have approached training with that level of seriousness from a young age?
Not saying that's the most healthy approach or that the US should emulate the East Africans, but I do think the difference is explainable without resorting to lazy explanations like drugs (which is probably very similar in terms of prevalence among both genders).
This post was edited 6 minutes after it was posted.
I know you specifically ask about the 5k, but in 2008 Shalane Flanagan got bronze (now silver) in the 10k. No men medaled in any distance event in Beijing. In 2023-2024, it was basically just a Shalane-equivalent in Grant Fisher. I think talent just ebbs and flows. The bigger question might be why the US men are overflowing with talent at 1500m.
My pet theory is that this is because there is a two-tiered standard to earn a good living among the best female Americans (or Euros) vs Africans. Right now, to have a chance to make a US team and earn a good living at 5k you need to be 14:50ish. Parker Valby just got what might be the biggest shoe deal ever and she has never broken 14:50. That puts her 300 behind Chebet in Rome. If she was East African, no way she gets anything like that unless she’s sub 14:20. Thats where the East Africans need to be to get a diamond league invite. There are two different sets of goal posts professionally right now. 50 seconds off the men’s WR is 13:25. That’s not getting you squat on the men’s side. If Nike & New Balance only sponsored sub 14:20 women, I think you’d see a half dozen Americans getting there. Nico and Graham do consistent 100 mile weeks. Grant’s at 90, I think. Betcha Cranny, Morgan, Andrews, Schweitzer are way lower than that. The most talented American women don’t have to take the kind of training risks that the men have to take to earn a good living. People respond to incentives.
This is a great point that I have never really considered or seen discussed here.