2023 class is doing great. Matsatsa is in sub 1:45 shape, wouldn’t be surprising to see Birnbaum go 3:31 this year. Hansen looks like he wants to run with the pros badly. And the Young twins fitness is entering elite NCAA territory now. 13:12, 1:45.04, 3:52, and 27:55 all from Sophomores. I’m sorry but this looks very scary by Senior year, sub 13 territory, 1:43, and 3:30 are possible.
I was very happy to see Lex and Leo Young having a great weekend at ACCs. As sophomores, Lex came 2nd behind Parker Wolfe in the 10k, and Leo was 3rd being Ethan Strand and Garret MacQuiddy (?) (and ahead of Rocky Hansen).
Like many, I have been slightly worried (or hopefully optimistic, depending on your pov) at their college progression, but things have really come together this season for them. Lex's 27:48 as a 20 year old is particularly great for his age, and Leo ran a tactically superb race for his 3rd place at ACCs. With their talent level, I think so long as they're healthy and making consistent progress, they'll be at the top of the NCAA by their senior year.
They may be progressing slower than Nico, but they're not at altitude, and they're at Stanford, not NAU (no Mike Smith!). Grant Fisher was a 13:32 guy at Stanford, and in his first three years after going pro he went 13:11-13:02-12:46. Not to say we should expect that of the twins, just saying the idea that their ceiling is lower than Nico's because they haven't run as fast at the same age is disregarding environmental factors. In HS when they had the same school, coach, and living conditions, the twins were faster.
Even when they start training at altitude, there’s likely to be a less than a 10% chance they ever close the gap on Nico. You don’t seem to appreciate just how good he is.
Ingebrigsten brothers: the last one is the fastest, world records and world medals belonging to onebrother while the other two havee euro titles and one global medal.
young bros: the 1st one is fastest. Multiple national records/titles in the family. True Prep dominance in the US
Dibaba Sisters: Youngest one is Kinda the fastest with world records but middle sister has a GOAT claim with 12 golds. but 4 global medalist in one family, Multplie world records, olympic,world medals.
only 3 families that are somewhat comparable( I know their accomplishments arent comparable)
what I take from this. 3 sets of elite siblings and in every case the 1,2, or 3 sibling is the best. I think we just wait for them to b at least middle aged athletes to decide if they will approach nico in terms of time. I bet at one point Genzebe thought she would be as succesful as her sister. This isn't the most fair comparison of nico and his bros because Nico going to NAU basically made him a pro out of hs even compared to stanford runners imo. I mean his coach breeded so many succesful pros retired and got a pro group lol and they are in Arizona.
I was very happy to see Lex and Leo Young having a great weekend at ACCs. As sophomores, Lex came 2nd behind Parker Wolfe in the 10k, and Leo was 3rd being Ethan Strand and Garret MacQuiddy (?) (and ahead of Rocky Hansen).
Like many, I have been slightly worried (or hopefully optimistic, depending on your pov) at their college progression, but things have really come together this season for them. Lex's 27:48 as a 20 year old is particularly great for his age, and Leo ran a tactically superb race for his 3rd place at ACCs. With their talent level, I think so long as they're healthy and making consistent progress, they'll be at the top of the NCAA by their senior year.
They may be progressing slower than Nico, but they're not at altitude, and they're at Stanford, not NAU (no Mike Smith!). Grant Fisher was a 13:32 guy at Stanford, and in his first three years after going pro he went 13:11-13:02-12:46. Not to say we should expect that of the twins, just saying the idea that their ceiling is lower than Nico's because they haven't run as fast at the same age is disregarding environmental factors. In HS when they had the same school, coach, and living conditions, the twins were faster.
It is very nice to see the positive, supportive comments in this thread. Based on plain facts and reasoning!
2023 class is doing great. Matsatsa is in sub 1:45 shape, wouldn’t be surprising to see Birnbaum go 3:31 this year. Hansen looks like he wants to run with the pros badly. And the Young twins fitness is entering elite NCAA territory now. 13:12, 1:45.04, 3:52, and 27:55 all from Sophomores. I’m sorry but this looks very scary by Senior year, sub 13 territory, 1:43, and 3:30 are possible.
Maybe this will be the time LetsRun learns that injuries and slower performances during a kid's freshman year aren't in any way indicative of future performance, and should rather be viewed as signs of mental/emotional progression that all runners have to deal with at some point.
jk time to go into every NCAA thread I can find and post about why 21 year old 3:48i miler Gary Martin will never be great because he skipped ACCs this year
You need to stop with idea that only Mike Smith can develop people well. Mike Smith is NOT the reason Nico is fast. Nico is fast because he's one of the most talented distance runners in US history and he works extremely hard. Nico did have a lot of struggles in his years with Mike Smith, too.
The Stanford coach got Ky Robinson and Charles Hicks winning NCAA championships in dominant fashion, for example.
Lex and Leo just needed to get their act together and stop screwing around. Too many distractions with their youtube channel and other BS. The Stanford training was always good enough, they just needed to stop being immature.
It's so funny to me that you would choose Stanford in particular to make this argument. Why don't we just break down how we'd figure this out:
If you want to figure out which coach is getting by on coaching ability vs which coach is getting by on better talent, I think the #1 thing you'd want to look at is team success vs individual success, because a great coach creates a team that is greater than the sum of its parts.
A coach who just gets more talented athletes (but is a worse coach) would probably get 1 or 2 or even 3 top 5 guys, maybe even individual champions, but there would be a big gap to the rest of the team, and the team as a whole would do worse than the top guy. You might also see stuff like them being the #1 seed all season, but underperforming at nationals because the whole team is cooked at that point. In that case, 1 guy might perform great because he's the most talented and their body can take it, while the rest of the team has their worst race of the season. You could also see them at the top of the NCAA for a season or two, but then fall out for years once they lose their top 1 or 2.
On the other hand, a coach who doesn't get as many of the most talented athletes, but is a great coach, would probably still have 1 or 2 top 5 guys (but less likely to win individually), and a smaller gap to the rest of the team, where the team as a whole does better than the top guy. You might see them ranked lower throughout the season, then overperforming throughout the postseason, before their best race at nationals.
Why don't we look at Stanford's best NCAA XC in the last few years: 2022. An all time race where Stanford went in ranked #1 after crushing all season long (won Nuttycombe in 54pts, Pac-12s in 22. They had the individual favorite in Ky Robinson (outkicked Nico at Nuttycombe), as well as the top returner in Charles Hicks (4th in '21), plus Cole Sprout (4th '22 NCAA 10k). They even had a strong #6 (and their #7 had a 13:37 pb). In maybe the best NCAA XC race of all time, NAU's top duo of Nico Young and Drew Bosley took the race out hard, with only Charles Hicks following. Unfortunately, despite trailing NAU by 1 point at halfway, Stanford's 3-4-5 proceeded to lost 151 places over the 2nd half, and Ky Robinson only managed 10th. They podiumed in 4th, but undoubtedly had their worst race of the season as a team. Meanwhile NAU had their best race of the year, going 2-3 and winning their 6th team title in 7 years on the tiebreaker to OSU. Pretty clear to me which one matches which description from earlier.
Although there's a much simpler way to prove my point: There is only 1 guy in the country who was so good at developing NCAA athletes that they started staying with him when they turned pro, and so good at developing pros that Nike formed a whole pro group around him, even letting him continue to coach other brand's athletes if he already had them, and that's Mike Smith. Ed Eyestone gets an honorable mention for being basically as successful but limiting himself only to Mormons.
Looking forward to the Young twins at nationals and how they rank next fall. They are both shaping up to be top 20 in the fall at nationals. Interesting to follow Gorze, Burns, Birnbaum, JOJO, Rocky, Evan Jenkins, Ford Washburn, etc.
Didn't realize McQuiddy had come so far.....certainly further than either of the twins in the same time period.
I was only aware of him in HS because he went to my alma mater (along with the 800m dude from Iowa State).
You went to westmont? Shoutout the blossom valley athletic league, I got my butt kicked in too many league meets against MacQuiddy
Class of '89 Bayyyyyybeeee!
We were in the WVAL back then (West Valley Athletic League): Leigh, Los Gatos, Westmont, Branham, Blackford (RIP), Prospect, Del Mar. Good times. We had some dudes back then too. I remember a teammate running 9:52 at league finals only to get 7th and not advance.
I followed MacQuiddy and Gomez with great interest a few years ago. Turns out that an old college teammate of mine was their coach.
Sorry for the bird walk. Congrats to Leo and Lex on their good runs.