PRs make a difference wrote:
Some odd takes.
Engelhardt beat Jane head to head last year, so not sure unbeatable is accurate. Both have improved since last year. Maybe Jane wins, but unbeatable is a stretch.
Blade's PR is 8 seconds slower than Englehardt's PR from 3 years ago. Maybe she can beat her, but Engelhardt beat her in XC every time they raced (other than Woodbridge) and is certainly better than she was when she was a 9th grader and ran 9:50.
Odd?
Don't give so much weight to 2024 or current 3200 PR's when it comes to runners like Blade and Engelhardt. Clearly, Sadie is more focused on the 800 and 1600 these days.
Since Blade skipped Arcadia, she hasn't been challenged in any big races since the 5k at NIN with Hedengren. Watching her casually go 9:58 at prelims, I expect to see her go sub 9:40. Still 10 seconds behind Hedengren's Arcadia PR, so it's pretty much a battle for 2nd and my money is on Blade over the rest of the field, including Sadie.
Sadie has had struggles in training. Praying for her to be healthy and put on a show at Brooks, however. A lot has happened in a year. Hedengren has made a massive jump this year, and so has Blade. Addy is going to come down from altitude and be right in the mix as well. I feel comfortable in a Jane-Rylee-Addy-Sadie finish either way, as that top tier group separates themselves from the rest.
In the tier 2 group, Huyler has run well. As of right now, Daily isn't running the 2 mile, but she is dominating all 3 distances right now in San Diego, and she'd be a threat in any single event she focused on. They'd let her in if she chose that distance, and I won't be surprised if she does, because of the competition there vs the mile. Jaelyn Williams has returned from injury to run very well, but I can't imagine she can compete at the level of girls who have stayed healthy all season. Thomsen is solid and consistent. Lots of CA talent in that 2nd tier.