I predict Jane runs 14:53 and establishes herself as the future of American distance running with this once race as her breakout moment. Worse case I think she breaks 15:00.
There will likely be a few runners wanting to run this type of plan, and that group will string out, so Jane, being 3rd or fourth in that group, will end up coming through 3200 in 9:50+ rather than 9:47-.
I like idea of 3, 3, 3, 3 for 12:00 thru 4k, and trying to close in 2:50 for 14:50.
She's fit enough to try this and with ideal weather and competitors around, it's not crazy.
If she fades and finishes in 3:10, it's still 15:10.
Lot of faith or very high expectations for a highschooler who just ran way faster then she ever did before at 5k. I'd think she needs to be a 9:15 two miler at a min. to think she can break 15 and I don't see that...yet. She is something, no doubt about it.
Who are the top 3-5 likely to win the 5000m given the published start list? What is the predicted/estimated time of the winner? Last year winner was Hilda Olemomoi in 15:06.42. That’s just 7 seconds faster than the indoor 5K Hedengren ran a few weeks ago???? 🤔
Who are the top 3-5 likely to win the 5000m given the published start list? What is the predicted/estimated time of the winner? Last year winner was Hilda Olemomoi in 15:06.42. That’s just 7 seconds faster than the indoor 5K Hedengren ran a few weeks ago???? 🤔
If your emoji is suggesting Hedengren might win the race, let’s slowww down. It’s a very good field.
Olemomoi - 14:52 indoors, 3rd at NCAA XC
Kosgei - 15:00 indoors, 2nd at NCAA XC, 3rd in indoor 5k, 9:15 steeple this month
Halladay-Lowry - 14:57 indoors, 2nd in NCAA indoor 5k and 3rd in the 3k
Abby Nichols - 15:03 PR last spring
Elise Stearns - 15:08 and 8:41 indoors, 4th in NCAA indoor 5k
Sophia Kennedy - 15:10 and 8:42 indoors, 5th in NCAA indoor 5k
Chloe Scrimgeour - 15:14 for 9th in NCAA indoor 5k
Riley Chamberlain - 4:26y and 8:40 indoors
So the race has 2-3-4-5-7-9 from the NCAA indoor 5k, and at least 6 women with faster 5k PRs than Hedengren. Hedengren could get some scalps from the list above, but anyone from the first 3 is a huge, pretty unrealistic ask.
Maybe, but all of Hendengren’s big races have been hard, even pacing and just about every record, at every level, comes off an even pace. There’s nothing to win in this race so her focus will be 100% on time.
True to an extent, but most of the fastest 3k/5k times—Jakob’s 7:17, the last three 5k WRs (Cheptegei-Bekele-Gebrselassie), Hagos’s 12:36, Fisher’s 12:42 and 7:22, practically all of the 12:43 and faster times in the last ten years, Danny Simmons’s 13:25, and on and on—were run with the last kilometer as the fastest of the race, sometimes significantly so. The best way to approach a 5k time trial is to run the first 3-4k at a pace that’s challenging, but that you’re pretty confident won’t destroy you if you’re having an average race-day, and that you believe you can close a little faster off of if you’re having a good to great day. I think the smart move for Hedengren is just to try to run 73s for 9-10 laps (~9:45 target for 3200) and then obviously at that point, she’ll give everything she has left.
When she ran 15:13.26, her kilometer splits were 3:02.4-3:06.0-3:04.4-3:04.6-2:56.1. We’re inclined to look at that and ask her to try running 3:01s the whole way or whatever, but in reality when people try that they often go over the edge mid-race and wind up running several seconds slower.
True to an extent, but most of the fastest 3k/5k times—Jakob’s 7:17, the last three 5k WRs (Cheptegei-Bekele-Gebrselassie), Hagos’s 12:36, Fisher’s 12:42 and 7:22, practically all of the 12:43 and faster times in the last ten years, Danny Simmons’s 13:25, and on and on—were run with the last kilometer as the fastest of the race, sometimes significantly so. The best way to approach a 5k time trial is to run the first 3-4k at a pace that’s challenging, but that you’re pretty confident won’t destroy you if you’re having an average race-day, and that you believe you can close a little faster off of if you’re having a good to great day. I think the smart move for Hedengren is just to try to run 73s for 9-10 laps (~9:45 target for 3200) and then obviously at that point, she’ll give everything she has left.
When she ran 15:13.26, her kilometer splits were 3:02.4-3:06.0-3:04.4-3:04.6-2:56.1. We’re inclined to look at that and ask her to try running 3:01s the whole way or whatever, but in reality when people try that they often go over the edge mid-race and wind up running several seconds slower.
182.4, 186.0, 184.4, 184.6, 176.1 put into the pace optimizer
18 14:59.28 Anita Weyermann SUI 8 Dec 77 Rome, ITA 5 Jun 96
19 14:48.07 Zola Budd GBR 26 May 66 London 26 Aug 85
Given that Jane is just over 18 and a half, it's Anita's record that she would be shooting for.
Forget records. I want to see if she can run 15:00 or faster. If she runs 15:00, she’ll be within 10 seconds of the NCAA and that means a lot more than what some foreigners ran decades ago. Both Wayermann and Budd’s records ended up being career PRs, anyway.
Who are the top 3-5 likely to win the 5000m given the published start list? What is the predicted/estimated time of the winner? Last year winner was Hilda Olemomoi in 15:06.42. That’s just 7 seconds faster than the indoor 5K Hedengren ran a few weeks ago???? 🤔
If your emoji is suggesting Hedengren might win the race, let’s slowww down. It’s a very good field.
Olemomoi - 14:52 indoors, 3rd at NCAA XC
Kosgei - 15:00 indoors, 2nd at NCAA XC, 3rd in indoor 5k, 9:15 steeple this month
Halladay-Lowry - 14:57 indoors, 2nd in NCAA indoor 5k and 3rd in the 3k
Abby Nichols - 15:03 PR last spring
Elise Stearns - 15:08 and 8:41 indoors, 4th in NCAA indoor 5k
Sophia Kennedy - 15:10 and 8:42 indoors, 5th in NCAA indoor 5k
Chloe Scrimgeour - 15:14 for 9th in NCAA indoor 5k
Riley Chamberlain - 4:26y and 8:40 indoors
So the race has 2-3-4-5-7-9 from the NCAA indoor 5k, and at least 6 women with faster 5k PRs than Hedengren. Hedengren could get some scalps from the list above, but anyone from the first 3 is a huge, pretty unrealistic ask.
Kosgei just went thru 4000 at 12:02 in a 10000 (and then faded to 31:02)
Budd had an early retirement that kept her out of international competition for years, so any point you were trying to make using her as an example is dumb.
Budd had an early retirement that kept her out of international competition for years, so any point you were trying to make using her as an example is dumb.
For sure, Hedengren might set her career PR tonight too, if she retires to get married, etc.
If your emoji is suggesting Hedengren might win the race, let’s slowww down. It’s a very good field.
Olemomoi - 14:52 indoors, 3rd at NCAA XC
Kosgei - 15:00 indoors, 2nd at NCAA XC, 3rd in indoor 5k, 9:15 steeple this month
Halladay-Lowry - 14:57 indoors, 2nd in NCAA indoor 5k and 3rd in the 3k
Abby Nichols - 15:03 PR last spring
Elise Stearns - 15:08 and 8:41 indoors, 4th in NCAA indoor 5k
Sophia Kennedy - 15:10 and 8:42 indoors, 5th in NCAA indoor 5k
Chloe Scrimgeour - 15:14 for 9th in NCAA indoor 5k
Riley Chamberlain - 4:26y and 8:40 indoors
So the race has 2-3-4-5-7-9 from the NCAA indoor 5k, and at least 6 women with faster 5k PRs than Hedengren. Hedengren could get some scalps from the list above, but anyone from the first 3 is a huge, pretty unrealistic ask.
Kosgei just went thru 4000 at 12:02 in a 10000 (and then faded to 31:02)
there seems to be a group of runners who could be on pace to run 15:15-20 and those would be the ones to run with. Kosgei, Olemomoi, LHL and maybe Nichol and Kennedy might be off running 15:00 pace which is probably too fast for the rest of the runners.
there seems to be a group of runners who could be on pace to run 15:15-20 and those would be the ones to run with. Kosgei, Olemomoi, LHL and maybe Nichol and Kennedy might be off running 15:00 pace which is probably too fast for the rest of the runners.
Is Kosgei just pacing, after running the 10000m?
The 10k she ran was 19 days ago at The Ten, so she’s ready to rock