Even though several have trashed your take, I think one can debate this seriously. In my years I’ve learned that you cannot automatically take dominance and improvement from any athlete for granted. All kinds of stuff can happen. Nobody thought Kipchoge would fall off like he did.
I predict he doesn’t PR over 1500, mile, 3K, 2mile again. I think he will lose both the 15 and 5 at this World Championships. I think if he goes for the 5k WR this season he gets it by a couple seconds, but if he doesn’t try this season, then he never sets it.
I don’t believe he’s going to be successful at 10k and up. He looks strong in Europe cross against a couple of 26:50ish guys, but I think that is about his limit. I think he’s at best a 26:48 and that is not enough strength to keep from being dropped by the big dogs.
From there both because of body type and annual cumulative fatigue, I just don’t see him being successful at the half and full. He is too big and I see him falling way off by the time he even decides to try the longer stuff. Nobody can sustain being that good and that fit for that long. Something has gotta give. And the Copenhagen half doesn’t tell anything at all. It was two days after the DL 1500 final and Jakob wasn’t prepared or recovered. But I see him maxing out at 60:30 and 2:08 because at his size the 4:40s per mile or faster are too hard.
Numerous posters have from at least 2018 made similar claims. That Jakob can´t continue to improve but they were terrible wrong and in about half year your predictions (hopes?) will possibly also look silly.
And it isn´t just about Jakob. Many of the all time greats continued to improve into their late twenties or even into their thirties, including Geb, Bekele, Farah, Kipchoge and Lagat. And most of them started to run seriously in their pre teens.
And also people who have been competing/ are competing with Jakob have improved significantly after the age of 23:
Marcin Lewandowski
Jake Wightman
Gourley
Coscoran
Habz
Giles
Schrub
Almgren
Kejelcha
Gebrhiwet
I was anticipating your reply. All those guys you mentioned stopped improving eventually.
Anyone else think Jakob peaked? I preidict no world records or golds this summer. Anyone agree?
Even though several have trashed your take, I think one can debate this seriously. In my years I’ve learned that you cannot automatically take dominance and improvement from any athlete for granted. All kinds of stuff can happen. Nobody thought Kipchoge would fall off like he did.
I predict he doesn’t PR over 1500, mile, 3K, 2mile again. I think he will lose both the 15 and 5 at this World Championships. I think if he goes for the 5k WR this season he gets it by a couple seconds, but if he doesn’t try this season, then he never sets it.
I don’t believe he’s going to be successful at 10k and up. He looks strong in Europe cross against a couple of 26:50ish guys, but I think that is about his limit. I think he’s at best a 26:48 and that is not enough strength to keep from being dropped by the big dogs.
From there both because of body type and annual cumulative fatigue, I just don’t see him being successful at the half and full. He is too big and I see him falling way off by the time he even decides to try the longer stuff. Nobody can sustain being that good and that fit for that long. Something has gotta give. And the Copenhagen half doesn’t tell anything at all. It was two days after the DL 1500 final and Jakob wasn’t prepared or recovered. But I see him maxing out at 60:30 and 2:08 because at his size the 4:40s per mile or faster are too hard.
3/10
Comparing a 24-year-old who recently shattered two WRs to old man Kipchoge like they’re even remotely analogous is funny, I’ll give you that.
Even though several have trashed your take, I think one can debate this seriously. In my years I’ve learned that you cannot automatically take dominance and improvement from any athlete for granted. All kinds of stuff can happen. Nobody thought Kipchoge would fall off like he did.
I predict he doesn’t PR over 1500, mile, 3K, 2mile again. I think he will lose both the 15 and 5 at this World Championships. I think if he goes for the 5k WR this season he gets it by a couple seconds, but if he doesn’t try this season, then he never sets it.
I don’t believe he’s going to be successful at 10k and up. He looks strong in Europe cross against a couple of 26:50ish guys, but I think that is about his limit. I think he’s at best a 26:48 and that is not enough strength to keep from being dropped by the big dogs.
From there both because of body type and annual cumulative fatigue, I just don’t see him being successful at the half and full. He is too big and I see him falling way off by the time he even decides to try the longer stuff. Nobody can sustain being that good and that fit for that long. Something has gotta give. And the Copenhagen half doesn’t tell anything at all. It was two days after the DL 1500 final and Jakob wasn’t prepared or recovered. But I see him maxing out at 60:30 and 2:08 because at his size the 4:40s per mile or faster are too hard.
3/10
Comparing a 24-year-old who recently shattered two WRs to old man Kipchoge like they’re even remotely analogous is funny, I’ll give you that.
It’s not perfect but it’s a fair analogy. Kipchoge dominated the marathon for years and looked invincible until he finally started to decline. Since Paris, it seems like he will never run even close to what he did before ever again. The same thing happened with Farah, the same with Geb. Brojos and JG have written in the past how about 7 years at the top for these elite guys is on average how long they can sustain. It isn’t age in and of itself, it’s the number of years of intense training. Jakob has been at it for years! Something has to give eventually even if Jakob is juiced to the gills. Nobody can sustain at his level for years on end.
His new indoor WRs are relatively weak compared to the current outdoor WRs. There’s no evidence he’s gotten faster. I think we will see times this outdoor season on par with his last two years of competition. I think he’ll go for the WR in the 15 and mile and come up short, a little slower than his current PRs. I predict he loses the World’s 1500m final and finishes somewhere around bronze to fifth. In the 5k I think a surprise will break Jakob’s streak and he’ll finish a close silver. I think next season we will start to see Jakob fall apart with injuries, health issues, training delays, and inconsistent performances. He’ll do what everyone does and try to move up, but for reasons I posted in another thread that will be a struggle for him. If he doesn’t go after the 5k WR this year, I predict he never gets it.
Numerous posters have from at least 2018 made similar claims. That Jakob can´t continue to improve but they were terrible wrong and in about half year your predictions (hopes?) will possibly also look silly.
And it isn´t just about Jakob. Many of the all time greats continued to improve into their late twenties or even into their thirties, including Geb, Bekele, Farah, Kipchoge and Lagat. And most of them started to run seriously in their pre teens.
And also people who have been competing/ are competing with Jakob have improved significantly after the age of 23:
Marcin Lewandowski
Jake Wightman
Gourley
Coscoran
Habz
Giles
Schrub
Almgren
Kejelcha
Gebrhiwet
I was anticipating your reply. All those guys you mentioned stopped improving eventually.
But they stopped much later than at age 23 AND......................
Are you certain that Gourley, Coscoran, Habz, Giles, Almgren, Kejelcha and Gebrhiwet have stopped improving? They all improved last year, some of them even this year.
I can mention some further runners who improved in their late twenties:
I was anticipating your reply. All those guys you mentioned stopped improving eventually.
But they stopped much later than at age 23 AND......................
Are you certain that Gourley, Coscoran, Habz, Giles, Almgren, Kejelcha and Gebrhiwet have stopped improving? They all improved last year, some of them even this year.
I can mention some further runners who improved in their late twenties:
Centro
Mo Ahmed
Klecker
Woody
Read my new post from a few minutes ago. I think it might clarify my opinion.
Comparing a 24-year-old who recently shattered two WRs to old man Kipchoge like they’re even remotely analogous is funny, I’ll give you that.
It’s not perfect but it’s a fair analogy. Kipchoge dominated the marathon for years and looked invincible until he finally started to decline. Since Paris, it seems like he will never run even close to what he did before ever again. The same thing happened with Farah, the same with Geb. Brojos and JG have written in the past how about 7 years at the top for these elite guys is on average how long they can sustain. It isn’t age in and of itself, it’s the number of years of intense training. Jakob has been at it for years! Something has to give eventually even if Jakob is juiced to the gills. Nobody can sustain at his level for years on end.
His new indoor WRs are relatively weak compared to the current outdoor WRs. There’s no evidence he’s gotten faster. I think we will see times this outdoor season on par with his last two years of competition. I think he’ll go for the WR in the 15 and mile and come up short, a little slower than his current PRs. I predict he loses the World’s 1500m final and finishes somewhere around bronze to fifth. In the 5k I think a surprise will break Jakob’s streak and he’ll finish a close silver. I think next season we will start to see Jakob fall apart with injuries, health issues, training delays, and inconsistent performances. He’ll do what everyone does and try to move up, but for reasons I posted in another thread that will be a struggle for him. If he doesn’t go after the 5k WR this year, I predict he never gets it.
You obviously don´t like Jakob and as many other "negativists" you hope that he will stop improving and that it also what you predicts without realizing your bias.
Do you think Geb, Bekele, Kipchoge, Farah, Lagat, Lewandowski and more trained less seriously than Jakob AND.....................
Do you think it is wearing you down to train in a system where you train a lot but make sure that you never overtrain?
I don´t think that I can convince YOU of anything but other posters might be able to see that your theory doesn´t work.
I think you will be disappointed with his perfomances this season: I predict that he - barring illness and injury - will break 1 or more of the following WRs:
Even though several have trashed your take, I think one can debate this seriously. In my years I’ve learned that you cannot automatically take dominance and improvement from any athlete for granted. All kinds of stuff can happen. Nobody thought Kipchoge would fall off like he did.
I predict he doesn’t PR over 1500, mile, 3K, 2mile again. I think he will lose both the 15 and 5 at this World Championships. I think if he goes for the 5k WR this season he gets it by a couple seconds, but if he doesn’t try this season, then he never sets it.
I don’t believe he’s going to be successful at 10k and up. He looks strong in Europe cross against a couple of 26:50ish guys, but I think that is about his limit. I think he’s at best a 26:48 and that is not enough strength to keep from being dropped by the big dogs.
From there both because of body type and annual cumulative fatigue, I just don’t see him being successful at the half and full. He is too big and I see him falling way off by the time he even decides to try the longer stuff. Nobody can sustain being that good and that fit for that long. Something has gotta give. And the Copenhagen half doesn’t tell anything at all. It was two days after the DL 1500 final and Jakob wasn’t prepared or recovered. But I see him maxing out at 60:30 and 2:08 because at his size the 4:40s per mile or faster are too hard.
3/10
Comparing a 24-year-old who recently shattered two WRs to old man Kipchoge like they’re even remotely analogous is funny, I’ll give you that.
The poster claimed that Jakob will siop improving due to many years of training.
I pointed to Kipchoge and many others who trained much longer and improved into their thirties. Do you understand now?
But they stopped much later than at age 23 AND......................
Are you certain that Gourley, Coscoran, Habz, Giles, Almgren, Kejelcha and Gebrhiwet have stopped improving? They all improved last year, some of them even this year.
I can mention some further runners who improved in their late twenties:
Centro
Mo Ahmed
Klecker
Woody
Read my new post from a few minutes ago. I think it might clarify my opinion.
See my answer. I don´t think you clarify anything other than your bias.
Read my new post from a few minutes ago. I think it might clarify my opinion.
See my answer. I don´t think you clarify anything other than your bias.
Just as an aside here, you’re not serious about Klecker and Kincaid? Those two have fallen off the radar more quickly than any two top level Americans quite possibly ever.
Kincaid goes from sub 27 almost exactly a year ago at the Ten, to making the 10k Paris team but never seriously challenging Grant, to then being a non factor in Paris, to doing literally nothing, to not even being able to run faster than the women’s half marathon WR. He’s taken a nose dive off a cliff! Goes from being America’s top distance guy, to barely making the 10k team, to a super scrub road runner in two seasons. It might be the most embarrassing downfall we’ve ever seen.
Klecker; gets owned in two halfs in a row, can’t break 1:01, is done on the track, future is bleak.
You couldn’t have picked two worse examples. My God, I feel sorry for those guys and for you.
Read my new post from a few minutes ago. I think it might clarify my opinion.
See my answer. I don´t think you clarify anything other than your bias.
There’s nothing in any of my posts that indicate I have any bias against Jakob. lol. I’m actually only looking at things objectively, similar to your username.
It’s not perfect but it’s a fair analogy. Kipchoge dominated the marathon for years and looked invincible until he finally started to decline. Since Paris, it seems like he will never run even close to what he did before ever again. The same thing happened with Farah, the same with Geb. Brojos and JG have written in the past how about 7 years at the top for these elite guys is on average how long they can sustain. It isn’t age in and of itself, it’s the number of years of intense training. Jakob has been at it for years! Something has to give eventually even if Jakob is juiced to the gills. Nobody can sustain at his level for years on end.
His new indoor WRs are relatively weak compared to the current outdoor WRs. There’s no evidence he’s gotten faster. I think we will see times this outdoor season on par with his last two years of competition. I think he’ll go for the WR in the 15 and mile and come up short, a little slower than his current PRs. I predict he loses the World’s 1500m final and finishes somewhere around bronze to fifth. In the 5k I think a surprise will break Jakob’s streak and he’ll finish a close silver. I think next season we will start to see Jakob fall apart with injuries, health issues, training delays, and inconsistent performances. He’ll do what everyone does and try to move up, but for reasons I posted in another thread that will be a struggle for him. If he doesn’t go after the 5k WR this year, I predict he never gets it.
You obviously don´t like Jakob and as many other "negativists" you hope that he will stop improving and that it also what you predicts without realizing your bias.
Do you think Geb, Bekele, Kipchoge, Farah, Lagat, Lewandowski and more trained less seriously than Jakob AND.....................
Do you think it is wearing you down to train in a system where you train a lot but make sure that you never overtrain?
I don´t think that I can convince YOU of anything but other posters might be able to see that your theory doesn´t work.
I think you will be disappointed with his perfomances this season: I predict that he - barring illness and injury - will break 1 or more of the following WRs:
the 1500m, the mile, the 5000m.
Point by point:
I’m neutral on Jakob. My evaluation is unbiased.
Impossible to know.
We don’t know if he’s overtraining or not. He did get hurt a year ago and missed his buildup.
It’s an opinion based on countless performers from history. Regression is inevitable.
I won’t be disappointed or care either way because I don’t have a dog in this fight like you apparently do. You’re a fan boy. I was simply making a bold prediction. I don’t know whether it’ll be right or not.
I literally said that if he tries for the 5k WR, he’ll break it.
Comparing a 24-year-old who recently shattered two WRs to old man Kipchoge like they’re even remotely analogous is funny, I’ll give you that.
It’s not perfect but it’s a fair analogy. Kipchoge dominated the marathon for years and looked invincible until he finally started to decline. Since Paris, it seems like he will never run even close to what he did before ever again. The same thing happened with Farah, the same with Geb. Brojos and JG have written in the past how about 7 years at the top for these elite guys is on average how long they can sustain. It isn’t age in and of itself, it’s the number of years of intense training. Jakob has been at it for years! Something has to give eventually even if Jakob is juiced to the gills. Nobody can sustain at his level for years on end.
His new indoor WRs are relatively weak compared to the current outdoor WRs. There’s no evidence he’s gotten faster. I think we will see times this outdoor season on par with his last two years of competition. I think he’ll go for the WR in the 15 and mile and come up short, a little slower than his current PRs. I predict he loses the World’s 1500m final and finishes somewhere around bronze to fifth. In the 5k I think a surprise will break Jakob’s streak and he’ll finish a close silver. I think next season we will start to see Jakob fall apart with injuries, health issues, training delays, and inconsistent performances. He’ll do what everyone does and try to move up, but for reasons I posted in another thread that will be a struggle for him. If he doesn’t go after the 5k WR this year, I predict he never gets it.
I agree. The only evidence we have that he’s gotten faster is that he literally ran faster than he ever has indoors, but otherwise there’s absolutely no evidence he’s gotten faster. How can anyone claim to have evidence of him getting faster when he’s only run two world records and improved his old PB by nearly a second?
It’s not perfect but it’s a fair analogy. Kipchoge dominated the marathon for years and looked invincible until he finally started to decline. Since Paris, it seems like he will never run even close to what he did before ever again. The same thing happened with Farah, the same with Geb. Brojos and JG have written in the past how about 7 years at the top for these elite guys is on average how long they can sustain. It isn’t age in and of itself, it’s the number of years of intense training. Jakob has been at it for years! Something has to give eventually even if Jakob is juiced to the gills. Nobody can sustain at his level for years on end.
His new indoor WRs are relatively weak compared to the current outdoor WRs. There’s no evidence he’s gotten faster. I think we will see times this outdoor season on par with his last two years of competition. I think he’ll go for the WR in the 15 and mile and come up short, a little slower than his current PRs. I predict he loses the World’s 1500m final and finishes somewhere around bronze to fifth. In the 5k I think a surprise will break Jakob’s streak and he’ll finish a close silver. I think next season we will start to see Jakob fall apart with injuries, health issues, training delays, and inconsistent performances. He’ll do what everyone does and try to move up, but for reasons I posted in another thread that will be a struggle for him. If he doesn’t go after the 5k WR this year, I predict he never gets it.
I agree. The only evidence we have that he’s gotten faster is that he literally ran faster than he ever has indoors, but otherwise there’s absolutely no evidence he’s gotten faster. How can anyone claim to have evidence of him getting faster when he’s only run two world records and improved his old PB by nearly a second?
Those indoor WRs were weak. They were rarely attempted until recently. Jakob and several others have run faster outdoors. All those WRs show is that he’s in the same shape as last outdoors season where he left off.