Should Jakob be worried about Nico?

The only guy Jakob needs to be worried about in the 5000 down the road is Hocker and Nuguse. And that’s only if they can get themselves into sub 12:40 shape down the road.

Jakob beats guys who ran 5k in the 12:30's and he is 3 and 0, and has never lost to
Joshua Cheptegei, the world record holder in 5 k races and beat the best from Africa. I don't think he is worried about any American!

Yep!

Grant is the ONLY one close, and it doesn't look as though he will ever achieve the mile speed needed to close out Jakob. If Grant can put the hurt on Jakob through 4000-4500m, maybe he can pull off a win.

.No Jakob likely does not 'worry' about anyone else. Like all great runners he focuses on himself.

He seems is extremely confident in his abilities and works very hard to improve himself.

Remember his comments about him being the pacer for everyone behind him, and others being "just the next guy".

He normally does not mention any of his competitors by name in interviews as he focuses on what he can control which is himself. He seems to view running as himself against all other possible competitors, which is a good attitude to have instead of worrying about any one individual. He only responds to questions from reporters about others after the reporters mention those others.

When he loses, he seems to believe it is because he did not run at his best. Some believe this is arrogant. But that type of self-centered belief in oneself is what it takes to succeed at the highest level. It seems to work well for him.

Not sure about "the only guys" part, but you're correct that Hocker could be a great threat down the road. He got destroyed by Fisher last year, but last month they're almost head to head in a 3k. If this trend continues, he would be a force to be reckoned with in the 5k, especially in a 13:00+ race (like Paris). Not sure Jakob can respond to that, after all the fastest I've seen him close a 5k is a 52 400m (in a 13:10+ race), but Hocker may be able to kick in 51, probably even 50 if the race is slow enough like 13:40+.

Also don't sleep on Kerr, he seems to have even better endurance than Hocker and is the 3k indoor WR holder. If he decides to move up, life would be tough for Jakob.

yeah, but then he went on to have lost all the 1500m global championships.

His confidence is admirable, but that may actually be his weakness.

btw, I wasn't talking about matters what he "does", but what he probably"should".

but Nico didn't train like a pro since 10-years-old, and have great family support (training only, I'm not talking about his personal life)

No. Next.

No. No. No

Cheptegai ran 12:35 when he was 23. He's never threatened Jakob and has never run faster.

Bekeke ran 12:37 just before his 22nd birthday. He never ran faster.

Komen ran 12:39 when he was 21. He never ran faster.

Gebrselassie ran 12:44 when he was 22. He did improve to 12:39.

Sihine ran 12:47 when he was 21. He never ran faster.

Kiplimo ran 12:48 when he was 19. He improved to 12:41.

Alamirew ran 12:48 when he was 22. He never ran faster.

Kipchoge ran 12:52 when he was 19. He improved to 12:46.

Using a guy's 12:51 at age 22 as evidence that he may run 12:31 someday is completely against all history. Without further breakthroughs in shoes and/or track surfaces, Nico is not going to improve more than a few seconds after age 22 in the 5000.

Jakob will generally always be the favourite in the 5000 but I would never say it isn't possible to beat him. Just takes someone to have a great race; Fisher, Aregawi, Kejelcha, etc. Kipyegon, the greatest ever female miler, was unbeatable in a championship 5000 before Paris yet got outkicked by Chebet - a 5/10k athlete and xc world champ.

"Nico is not going to improve more than a few seconds after age 22 in the 5000."

------------------

The following runners prove otherwise:

Gebrhiwet

Kejelcha

Jacob Kiplimo improved with 7 seconds when he was 23

Haile Bekele

Fisher

Nicholas Kipkorir

Mo Ahmed

Ndikumwenayo

Lobalu

Mourhit

Terkat

El-G

Grijalva

Teare

Almgren

Woody

Klecker

Justyn Knight

Mo Farah

Lagat

Centro

Isaac Kimeli

And Jakob will possibly improve significantly next time he participates in a fast, paced 5000m (barring illnes and injury).

Can you see that the examples for your statement are irrelevant when evaluating an American runner like Nico?

No one else said it, but I seriously doubt “we all agree that the day of Jacob winning the 5k is long gone”. I certainly don’t agree with that!

What?

Not only does Grant have less mile speed than Jakob, he's also not as fit as him. Any move he makes to try and break Jakob would hurt himself just as much or more. Like how Gebrhiwet tried to break him with 600m to go last year and paid the price, big time, while Jakob looked completely unfazed. And Gebrhiwet was a 12:36 guy!

I genuinely don't think anyone on this planet could "put the hurt on Jakob" at 5000m or less. The only time I've seen him look pained in a championship 5000m is at the end of Worlds in 2023 (when he was sick) while he was running down a convicted doper. And Jakob won that race!!!!

Nico already had his breakthrough time performance. He's improved his PR 6 seconds since he turned 22. Not coincidentally, he did it at the track where the 3 fastest Americans set their PRs. Nico has never run sub 13:10 anywhere other than BU. If you want to claim Nico can run low 12:40 someday, I have no problem with that. I was responding to the claim that he could run 12:31 someday.

Obviously Jakob can run much faster than his 5000 PR, everyone knows that.

If an Ethiopian runs 12:51 at 22, he's a burnt out old man, with the days of running under 12:50 behind him...

I don´t know what Nico´s lifetime best will be. I am just pointing out that MANY especially Western runners have improved significantly after the age of 22.

About Jakob: Apparently you don´t know that I have been positive on Jakob for many years.

In late 2018 I predicted he would brake all the WRs from the 1500m to the 10000m (both included).

Nico could potentially trip Jakob at the start of a busy race.

That's about the only threat he poses.