I really think Norway wins. Nordas woukd hand off even. Jakob gets the stick 2 seconds behind and he catches up 800 in and wins over last 200. He doesn't lose when he doesn't lead.
I am not at all convinced Norma’s hands off even, nor that Jakob has 2 full seconds (!) on Hocker or Nuguse.
lol@ nordas handing off even. Hobbs will demolish him in the shorter distance. And then hobbs hands off to quincy hall while norway hands off to who, warholm? And then they pass to a 1:45 guy. 3 seconds slower than hoppel. a five second deficit for Jakob is conservative.
Great post; how is the DMR not an Olympic event? Think of the mind boggling matchups in LA 2028. Bet we'd see sub 9 there. In fact, why is there not a 2 mile relay at the Olympics ? We could see a sub 7. Olympic track & field should end with a relay carnival, 4 x 100, 4 x 400, 4 x 800, DMR. How much fun would that be ?!
Great post; how is the DMR not an Olympic event? Think of the mind boggling matchups in LA 2028. Bet we'd see sub 9 there. In fact, why is there not a 2 mile relay at the Olympics ? We could see a sub 7. Olympic track & field should end with a relay carnival, 4 x 100, 4 x 400, 4 x 800, DMR. How much fun would that be ?!
I bet the reason they don't have a distance relay is because of the concern about prelims, and that the top runners wouldn't want to risk individual medal chances to run a taxing relay prelim in addition to all the rounds they already have to run. It's hard to see how they could get around that issue.
Yes. Right now we've got two 3:48 NCAA milers. Let's just say ten years from now there's several guys that can run 3:50 for a 1600 split. And that same team has another 3:52 type guy who in a 1200 could run 2:48. And then an 800m runner splitting 1:46.0 and a 400m split of 46.0
A 2:48.0, 46.0, 1:46.0, 3:50.0 equals 9:00. None of these are top in the NCAA right now, but all near the front. I don't think it'll happen anytime soon, but maybe ten years from now there will be a couple teams capable, and a bunch capable of 9:10ish.
Yes. Right now we've got two 3:48 NCAA milers. Let's just say ten years from now there's several guys that can run 3:50 for a 1600 split. And that same team has another 3:52 type guy who in a 1200 could run 2:48. And then an 800m runner splitting 1:46.0 and a 400m split of 46.0
A 2:48.0, 46.0, 1:46.0, 3:50.0 equals 9:00. None of these are top in the NCAA right now, but all near the front. I don't think it'll happen anytime soon, but maybe ten years from now there will be a couple teams capable, and a bunch capable of 9:10ish.
I really think Norway wins. Nordas woukd hand off even. Jakob gets the stick 2 seconds behind and he catches up 800 in and wins over last 200. He doesn't lose when he doesn't lead.
I am not at all convinced Norma’s hands off even, nor that Jakob has 2 full seconds (!) on Hocker or Nuguse.
Agree. I think Jakob would receive baton 3-4 seconds behind the US by the last leg. The 400 alone would likely be 2 seconds.
EDIT: Nevermind, completely forgot about Warholm in the 400 (if we’re talking ‘perfect lineups’.) Norway vs US would be much closer than I expected.
This post was edited 1 minute after it was posted.
Great post; how is the DMR not an Olympic event? Think of the mind boggling matchups in LA 2028. Bet we'd see sub 9 there. In fact, why is there not a 2 mile relay at the Olympics ? We could see a sub 7. Olympic track & field should end with a relay carnival, 4 x 100, 4 x 400, 4 x 800, DMR. How much fun would that be ?!
I bet the reason they don't have a distance relay is because of the concern about prelims, and that the top runners wouldn't want to risk individual medal chances to run a taxing relay prelim in addition to all the rounds they already have to run. It's hard to see how they could get around that issue.
Skip the prelims, just do a straight final like in the NCAA. Qualify through the World Athletics Relay Championships like the other relays already do to get the teams. I'd probably go with 8 teams, unlike the 12 for NCAAs.
Current WR is 9:14.58 by Brooks Beasts last year (2:49.6, 46.6, 1:45.75, 3:52.64.)
The US could go significantly lower in the 400, 800, and 1600.
A sub-9 would require all 4 legs running insane times. A theoretical line-up could go: Hobbs Kessler 2:48 Quincy Hall 0:44 Bryce Hoppel 1:42 Cole Hocker/Yared Nuguse 3:46
Too unrealistic? Or possible?
Yep, the U.S. could do this. I wrote my team and splits before opening the thread and it was similar:
2:45 (Kessler or Hoey)
45 (Quincy Hall)
1:43 (Hoppel or Hoey)
3:47 (Hocker or Nuguse)
What's really striking is that no PRs or once-in-a-lifetime performances would be needed. All of them individually could hit these times right now.
That's a fascinating lineup! Thanks for the analysis. However, I have some concerns.
Wanyonyi ain't splitting 1:40 in an 800. Cheruiyot is past his prime and probably can't run 3:44. Nuguse and Kerr can't run 3:42, either. The longer a distance is, the less you benefit from the running start you get in a relay. And what about Hocker? He ran 3:27.6- that's about 2:45 through 1200m. He should be able to run a couple seconds faster than 2:44.
I don't know enough to comment on the other runners.
Relays are messy- ugly. If these teams are in one race there will be trip-ups and handoff troubles. (relay technique cuts seconds- that's why HS and collegiate teams can run near-pro or pro times, and why America's relay team loses) It would still result in a WR race, but not to the extent you predict. And if it were a pure time trial, like the Brooks Beast's world record, then you'd have no... pacemakers. Obviously, breaking the wind is very important, especially when running. Unless you had a separate pacemaker for each leg, thus invalidating the official status of the event, I think the best-case scenario has your list running 1.2-3.0 seconds slower than your prediction.
Let's address these:
Overall, these were all high optimistic and best-case scenario, I think I caveated that. If you line them up everything is probably a second slower per lap (outside of the 400) if not more the longer you run. Maybe I didn't really make that clear enough.
"Wanyonyi ain't splitting 1:40"
-It is probably true, that nobody is running their fastest in a relay, but I was just throwing out maximal times. An 800m runner who has run 1:41 from the front without pacers is probably the least affected of what you pointed out though.
"Cheruiyot probably can't run 3:44"
- He ran under 3:29 for 1500 last year, which is worth a 3:45 high mile and 3:44 split. Nuguse and Kerr similar notes with the maximal time caveat.
It's a little strange you go the other way on Hocker, but yes I could've said 2:43. 2:42 might be pushing it.
This post was edited 29 seconds after it was posted.
That's a fascinating lineup! Thanks for the analysis. However, I have some concerns.
Wanyonyi ain't splitting 1:40 in an 800. Cheruiyot is past his prime and probably can't run 3:44. Nuguse and Kerr can't run 3:42, either. The longer a distance is, the less you benefit from the running start you get in a relay. And what about Hocker? He ran 3:27.6- that's about 2:45 through 1200m. He should be able to run a couple seconds faster than 2:44.
I don't know enough to comment on the other runners.
Relays are messy- ugly. If these teams are in one race there will be trip-ups and handoff troubles. (relay technique cuts seconds- that's why HS and collegiate teams can run near-pro or pro times, and why America's relay team loses) It would still result in a WR race, but not to the extent you predict. And if it were a pure time trial, like the Brooks Beast's world record, then you'd have no... pacemakers. Obviously, breaking the wind is very important, especially when running. Unless you had a separate pacemaker for each leg, thus invalidating the official status of the event, I think the best-case scenario has your list running 1.2-3.0 seconds slower than your prediction.
Let's address these:
Overall, these were all high optimistic and best-case scenario, I think I caveated that. If you line them up everything is probably a second slower per lap (outside of the 400) if not more the longer you run. Maybe I didn't really make that clear enough.
"Wanyonyi ain't splitting 1:40"
-It is probably true, that nobody is running their fastest in a relay, but I was just throwing out maximal times. An 800m runner who has run 1:41 from the front without pacers is probably the least affected of what you pointed out though.
"Cheruiyot probably can't run 3:44"
- He ran under 3:29 for 1500 last year, which is worth a 3:45 high mile and 3:44 split. Nuguse and Kerr similar notes with the maximal time caveat.
It's a little strange you go the other way on Hocker, but yes I could've said 2:43. 2:42 might be pushing it.
timmy's most likely gonna be running by himself, like anyone else on the 4th leg. i think you have to assume the 4th man is running a solo time trial. honestly, everyone after the first leg pretty much is. if we're going for records.
so what is everyone capable of without any pacing.
You addressed my major concerns. I'm glad we roughly agree on what the outcome of this race realistically might be.
After researching the 1200m legs a bit more, I agree with those predictions. The difference is that your 1600m and 800m times were faster than the athletes have run individually, while the 1200m seems slower than they could race.
2:45 :45 1:45 3:45 is 9:00. The 400 can always have a 43, the 800 can always have a 1:43, the 1200 can always have a 2:45 (anyone under 3:30) and the mile has 3:45.
1200 gets Kessler and Teare
Hoppel and Miller on 800. Norwood and Norman on 400. Nuguse and Hocker on anchor...
You know we're in the Golden Age of US middle-distance running, when the reigning Olympic 1500m champ from a few months ago is left off a lot of projected rosters here and it isn't really all that controversial. We've never had a "bench" like this.
It's effing absurd that we have Skateboarding and Break-Dancing as Olympic events, but not the DMR or 4x800. World Athletics needs to figure this out.
Completely unrealistic. You have to realize that by the 800/400/1600 legs, they would be running solo. Hell, I’m not sure many would even be able to pace the 1200 leg. Everyone having A+ , near WR days solo on a DMR leg on the same day as eachother isn’t feasible.