Dennis Reynolds the real one wrote:
Let's be real here, you're talking about the last 2 Olympic gold medalists in the 1500m. Both Jakob and Hocker continue to impress but Jakob does it in a WR/Diamond League champion kind of way vs. Hocker in a "good job you tried hard" kind of way. All things equal I will lean towards the person who races and wins more which is Jakob vs. Hocker as we think about LA Olympics but odds wouldn't be that different. It will not surprise me at all if Hocker wins again but it would also not surprise me if JI wins, Kerr wins, Goose wins or anyone else wins. 1500m is freaking hard, good money to be made there gambling.
I agree with all this... but if Jakob continues to treat everything - even the championship races - as a time trial, then it would surprise me if he won. Without wave lights and pacemakers, he simply does not have the 'fitness gap' over the rest of these guys to just front run a championship race. He just ran about a second and a half faster than YN and HK (realistically, if healthy JK will be in that same level of fitness). Jakob has had that kind of 'fitness gap' over the field in the past and still lost - four times in a row. He won in Tokyo because he did not front run the whole race. If he does something similar this year, then he can win. Otherwise he will lose again.
I like him and I hope he learns from his mistakes and wins.