There’s a he doesn’t. Normally the heats are close sit and kick affairs and if all the heats hit the auto qual times, they advance by place, and lets say if 1-5 advance and 1-10 are separated by 1 second and Jakob is sixth, then he doesn’t advance. That could easily happen with so many fast guys now.
Have you even watched the heats in the last global champs?
We just saw Jakob lose to all 3 of those runners you mentioned: I’d say yes.
The question you should ask yourself is why did those guys have 1400m of pacing?
Seen any of them lose to Jakob?
Stay on topic. We’re talking about Jakob’s ability to win in a kick against top competition in a championship final. In the last such race, Jakob lost to 3 guys.
It is unlikely, but not out of the question. He has to be in court in norway (1,5 days after the final in china). So, it he decides to race it will mess up his season quite a bit.
Yes, his focus this year may be to put his father in jail (because that’s important to him) and maybe he does not care so much about the running.
Speed-wise, he's the slowest out of the big four. Strength-wise, everybody is catching up. Hocker just shocked the world with an indoor 7:23 in his only serious attempt. He could definitely get to around 7:20 outdoors, and Kerr and Nuguse may be even faster, so Jakob's only edge over his competitors is going out of window. Not to mention Kessler and Laros getting better and better.
I don't see how he would win another world title tbf.
Wouldn’t say his chances are as bad as some others are saying. Though I do believe he loses in most scenarios, he is still the favorite in a race that is paced given his PR.
Best shot in my opinion is letting someone lead for the first 900m (it would have to be really fast, sub 3:30 pace) and then taking the lead and gradually picking it up the last 600m.
That being said, I see Hocker as the heavy favorite with Kerr, Nuguse, and Jingy tied for second.
Stay on topic. We’re talking about Jakob’s ability to win in a kick against top competition in a championship final. In the last such race, Jakob lost to 3 guys.
Jakob has routinely beaten most of those 3 guys.
Seems relevant to a discussion if its over for him.
Hope he captures the WR in the indoor mile next week
There are few 3ks outdoors and they're often in less than ideal conditions. This will likely remain Fisher's and Hocker's 3k PB overall. It's rare to find opportunities like what they experienced.
Jakob’s “problem” in the 1500 is that guys who have better turnover than him are closing the strength gap he had on the field. It exactly what we saw in Paris. If he can’t run the kick out of everyone through 1200 in these championship 1500’s he will lose. We’ve seen it time and time again and for people to act like it’s not a thing is absurd.
He has his gold in the 1500. He has 2 WC gold in the 5000 and an Olympic gold in the 5000. It’s probably close to time for him to move to 5000-10000. Records are nice but hardware is better. Run under 3:26 and 3:43 this year and then spend 2026 moving up to 5000-10000. Win world XC next January and do some of the bigger HM’s and leave the 1500 to the younger guys.
I have to say that Hocker's 3000m performance was really impressive, and it shows he has improved his endurance significantly.
If Jakob were to run an 800m within the next 6 months (I have no idea if he has any plans doing so) and he ends up going sub 1:45.5, or maybe even doing a 1:44.high, would people change their tune then? If his competitors show they have improved their endurance, but Jakob also shows he has improved his speed, are they even then, and things remain the same as before?
(I think Jakob can PB with 1-1.5 seconds in the 800m (1:46.44 is current PB, from 2020). I might be wrong, I might be right)
Either way, I'd love to see Jakob, Hocker, Nuguse, Kerr, Kessler, Laros and Myers face off in the world indoors in march
The only thing that would make many of us change our tune is to see Jakob 1) actually win a race in a kick over all of his top competitors and / or 2) stop looking like a sitting duck.
If Jakob PRs in shorter distances, I would still have to see it to believe it.
I'd say Jakob looked rather convincing in Lausanne last year. Hocker and Kessler were right behind him up to the 1350m mark, then he turned un the turbo. Beat Hocker with a 2.02 seconds margin, and Kessler with a 2.64 seconds margin. I would call that a kick
This post was edited 11 minutes after it was posted.
There’s a he doesn’t. Normally the heats are close sit and kick affairs and if all the heats hit the auto qual times, they advance by place, and lets say if 1-5 advance and 1-10 are separated by 1 second and Jakob is sixth, then he doesn’t advance. That could easily happen with so many fast guys now.
Have you even watched the heats in the last global champs?
Show me a heat where he was close to not qualify?
He hasn’t and fair point. No wonder I’m getting so many downvotes. lol.
I was responding to a post, which was probably sarcastic, but I actually took the possibility of him not making a final seriously, because even though it hasn’t happened before, my take was that it could hypothetically happen because guys keep improving and that could make it more neck and neck in the heats. That’s all I was saying. I wasn’t saying that Jakob will never make another global final, that of course would be unlikely.
To me the more interesting question is is his unquestionable 5000m supremacy now less certain. I still think he is heavy favorite at worlds (and at least most likely to win in the 1500m even if not outright likely) but when you are lining up against several other low 7:2x and possibly mid 12:3x guys, nothing is guaranteed.
The only thing that would make many of us change our tune is to see Jakob 1) actually win a race in a kick over all of his top competitors and / or 2) stop looking like a sitting duck.
If Jakob PRs in shorter distances, I would still have to see it to believe it.
I'd say Jakob looked rather convincing in Lausanne last year. Hocker and Kessler were right behind him up to the 1350m mark, then he turned un the turbo. Beat Hocker with a 2.02 seconds margin, and Kessler with a 2.64 seconds margin. I would call that a kick
People like to rant about Jakob’s slower 800 pr and the fact that he has lost the last few global championships as evidence he doesn’t have as much speed, but I think that conclusion is wrong. There’s been a couple times on the DL he has closed the last 100 similar to Hocker. In the championships he’s been out kicked because he’s taken the place of the pacer and has wasted more energy than the guys behind him, not because he can’t kick as hard, he just has nothing left. It’s because of over confident front running tactics, not because he can’t kick.
As for his 800, this is also a bad argument. His PR came in the beginning of a season during a heavy training block. It was just for practice. Yared and Cole do the same thing. Yared’s PR is 1:46 and our Olympic champion’s is 1:45. All three can likely run faster. El G and Bernard Lagat never actually raced an 800 PR that was under 1:47, even though both closed in 1:46 in the Athens Olympics.
People seem to forget how hard it is to repeat a winning performance in 1500m championships. It is one of, if not the most random distance running event, especially olympic finals.
Jakob will undoubtably be one of the top 2 or 3 (if not the best) middle distance runners of all time when he chooses to stop running middle distance, but he may only win 1 or 2 more global medals, if any, given how competitive the field is.
Hockers Paris gold is arguably the greatest single win in the 1500m in a long time,b
Speed-wise, he's the slowest out of the big four. Strength-wise, everybody is catching up. Hocker just shocked the world with an indoor 7:23 in his only serious attempt. He could definitely get to around 7:20 outdoors, and Kerr and Nuguse may be even faster, so Jakob's only edge over his competitors is going out of window. Not to mention Kessler and Laros getting better and better.
I don't see how he would win another world title tbf.
They aren’t catching up, strength-wise. None them will ever run 7:17.55 or challenge him in a 5000m. If Fisher and Hocker run a 3000m outdoors, it probably won’t be any faster than what they did yesterday. I don’t see Kerr, who turns 28 this year, running any better than his 8:01 2-mile from last year.
Last year was the perfect storm for him to finish 4th. It might turn out that the three guys that beat him, ran the races of their lives.
It was my conclusion after yesterday that if Jakob doesn’t change the tactics he’s not going to win another unpaced global champs. Even if he does it will be very hard. Hockers size/speed combo along with gear shift is unrivaled. He wrote down 7:26 in his training log yesterday and ran 7:23 instead. If he goes all-in on an 800 and wrote 1:43, would it really shock us anymore if he ran 1:42?
Hocker improved his endurance and got outkicked by a 5/10k guy not known for being a kicker.
Jake Wightman did the same in 2022, and he got dropped and beaten badly by Mechaal. He leveraged the improvements to a world title.
Hobbs Kessler the same with Coscoran. 1 week later he’s well ahead.
The rules are different if you are a miler with natural speed. Major improvements in endurance will show off a ton in the 1500/mile. Fisher should also be known as more of a kicker after we saw what he did last year in Paris.