I doubt he will win or be anywhere close. Now that he's 40, he may have like one more 2:04ish sometime in the next couple years, like Bekele before the Olympics last year. But like Bekele, I think to expect anything from him other than mediocrity on a marathon by marathon basis from now on is unrealistic. He'll have one here and there in the 2:06 to 2:08 range, but most of his future races will be slower or dnfs. His best days are long behind him. Collect the appearance fees.
It'll be fascinating to see if he's delusional enough to think he should still go out in 60:30 with the leaders. I have ZERO issue with him running for as long as he'd like, even if 2:05ish is his ceiling. But I think it'll be pretty sad to see him go out at a pace that is just completely unrealistic at this point in his career.
I reckon,he will perform better than many people expect.London course suits him.It suits his running styles and he knows the course like the back of his hand.It is quite clear now that he isn't brilliant on a hilly course.London is flat as a pan cake.Though ,sometimes the weather can throw a spanner in the works.However if conditions are not too bad I think he will approach the race without any pressure;the spotlight will be on Kiplimo and the other young speedsters.Pressure off works perfectly for Kipchoge.Look down the history of his races both on the track and on roads and you will realise he performs extremely well when the spotlight is not on him.Patrick Sang once said that Kipchoge usually wins or looses a race before he toes the start line.
Everyone seems to think of London like it's a super fast course, but more often than not, the winning time is in the 2:04-2:05 range. Kipchoge and Kiptum are the exceptions. So, I think we'll probably see another victory around 2:04 and I can see Kipchoge being competitive in that. I can certainly see him being in the race for the win in the last mile. I think his days of running 2:02 are gone, but he has 2:04 in him, no problem. I retain my faith in the GOAT
Does he have a shot at the win?....LOL!! His is an old man. There is no way he can compete with the much younger faster runners. However I think he has a good shot finishing in the top 5.
It was already a great field with many great story lines, but it’s just that much better with the true “wise old man” in the field. There is no chance he can win. If he breaks 2:08 and finishes in the top 10 it would be a great run for a guy who is likely 45 years old. I’ll say he runs 2:07:45 and finishes 6-10th. I agree that his best bet to run his best now is to NOT be in the lead pack halfway. He should be in pack 2 with the Europeans.
It'll be fascinating to see if he's delusional enough to think he should still go out in 60:30 with the leaders. I have ZERO issue with him running for as long as he'd like, even if 2:05ish is his ceiling. But I think it'll be pretty sad to see him go out at a pace that is just completely unrealistic at this point in his career.
I'm curious as to if Kipchoge can break Bekele's M40+ world record of 2:04:15
I thought that Bekele's M35+ WR of 2:01:41 would be impossible to break, but I had to eat crow when Kipchoge did 2:01:09 at 37 years (and 10 months).
Kipchoge has been a bit inconsistent in his last marathons, but I will NOT write him off. He can definitely break it, but it's not gonna be a walk in the park.
I also realize how much I miss Kelvin Kiptum. It's so surreal that he is gone, feel so bad for him and his family. Who knows what he could've accomplished by now.
I hope we get some more Kipchoge-Bekele duels in the future.
I wonder if many of the posters here are Americans because based on some of the posts, you guys know nothing about marathoning. We don't know what Kipchoge has left in him, and we will see when the time comes, but some of your predictions are ridiculous. Who's to say he can't still run a 2:03 or win? It depends on the kind of day you are having. I doubt he's washed up.