I quite like the move. I think it's nice Puma is going with a nice big group. Alex Maier and Peter Lynch, recent grads who are with Puma, already debuted in the Full in Chicago. Maier did good, 2:11 for his pro debut.
Fiona obviously with Puma moved quick to the roads, and they seemed to have talked Natosha Rogers into transitioning to them as well (though she was complaining about it on instagram). Wish I could see Isai Rodriguez (also with Puma) in the start line here too. With Roe having a similar-ish profile to Fiona's college years and the same college background as Maier, I think she's well set up for some success here.
Fiona obviously with Puma moved quick to the roads, and they seemed to have talked Natosha Rogers into transitioning to them as well (though she was complaining about it on instagram). Wish I could see Isai Rodriguez (also with Puma) in the start line here too. With Roe having a similar-ish profile to Fiona's college years and the same college background as Maier, I think she's well set up for some success here.
Hopefully set up for more success than a limp across the starting line
Voting McDonald. Did he have some small setback recently? Anyway seeing 17 miles today, and a little downtime after stacked 100-mile weeks might be a blessing in disguise.
I think McDonald lost about a week to a minor injury, so thet will probably make it pretty close between those 2. I am betting on DNS from Mantz.
Erika Kemp is an interesting marathon debut. Morgan McDonald is back to making some YouTube videos & seems to have had a minor injury scare in his build-up. Obviously dk how much that really affects his entire build-up. Pearson will be fun to watch. He probably has a hard bike or swim after this.
Weather will be important to monitor. Feel like Houston has gone a touch hot/humid a fair amount in recent years.
Temperature looks ideal for next Sunday morning - high 40s/low 50s.
I'm sure they're eyeing the 60 minute mark and thinking about a potential American Record, but it feels like no one has really challenged it over the years I'm not going to get my hopes up. Rupp was a sub 27 10,000m guy and he didn't even get it. Which is hard to believe when you've got a number of sub 58 guys in the world and what seems like a ton of sub 59 guys. A sub 60 doesn't seem like it should be too tough to ask these days from our American Olympians.
Rupp did not break 60 on a record-eligible course, but he did run 59'47" at Roma-Ostia (ITA) in 2018, which is a Gold Level event through World Athletics.
Rupp ran 2:09 at Boston and Chicago in the 10 months before Roma-Ostia, and just 28'18" on the track that Summer '17, so you'd have to believe this field can have Americans in the sub-60 hunt.
Side note, I recently watched the race vid while on the treadmill, and it's a really exciting race in the last 10k:
Good list of folks running, Zach Panning should be due for a big PB. Really want to see Mantz, Klecker, Young all race. Good for Alex Maier getting after it as well
No pattern of going “a touch hot/humid in recent years” can be discerned from that data.
I've run Houston 6+ times now. That data is a little skewed because it's just showing what the low is. Anyone who lives in Texas knows that the weather changes very quickly. It can be low 40s at 6am, but easily 60+ degrees by 10am. 2020 and 2023 were definitely warm years when you also factor in humidity. Last year, temps were perfect, but half marathoners had a pretty nasty headwind
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I'm sure they're eyeing the 60 minute mark and thinking about a potential American Record, but it feels like no one has really challenged it over the years I'm not going to get my hopes up. Rupp was a sub 27 10,000m guy and he didn't even get it. Which is hard to believe when you've got a number of sub 58 guys in the world and what seems like a ton of sub 59 guys. A sub 60 doesn't seem like it should be too tough to ask these days from our American Olympians.
Given the American marathon record is 5 min slower than the world record, I think the half marathon record is actually stronger. The Africans make a 58 look so easy, but its rediculous. None of the current American crop look that close to AR shape. Until we see a 2:06 marathon from them (or sub 27 10000m in klecher's case) I jst dont see it happening. Hope to be proven wrong.
I find it interesting that 2 Aussie lads - Brett Robinson and Steve Monegetti - who are only 27.45 guys - have ran 59.50 and 60 flat respectively - yet all these 27 flat 10k Americans can’t break 60. They should be low 59….guess Aussies just do it better. Given this I expect Tiernan and Morgs to run 59.30 ish in this half.
It is crazy that the US men have 15 men who have run 27:20 or faster in 10,000m and only 3 have dropped a 59 in the half.
It is just as (or more) crazy that Japan has 21 men who have run a marathon under 2:07 and zero have broken 60 min in the half. You'd think thier obsession with Eikiden would set them up well for future half marathons. Clearly the talent is there in both countries, but opportunities and incentives aren't aligned for runners to peak for fast half marathons.
That has me excited for the Americans in Houston. Some talented guys are showing up and it seems that at least a few are taking the opportunity seriously. I think we'll see multiple 59s.
It is still a long way out, but the long range forecast is showing a cold front coming in on race day. The day before will be on the warm side. If it is windy from a cold front, that will take a bite out of race times as miles 9 & 10 are due north and will be right into a headwind. But if winds are light early in the morning and temps are in the 40s, it will be a greenlight for a fast race. This is probably the best opportunity to see the AR go down as the US field is so big and there will be a good pack of up to a dozen guys going after it.
