blanks could barely go sub 13, and now you are giving him 10 more seconds?
He ran 12:59, the last 1200 on his own, 2 weeks after XC season ended. Give him the best pacer in the world for 4990m during actual indoor season, and maybe 10s is possible. Woody Kincaid never won NCAA XC and now he's run 12:51i.
I'll admit beating jakob is a stretch but I have no doubt that he'll be within 5 seconds. Never underestimate momentum and blanks has so much of it. He's a competitor, stop focusing on 'barely sub 13' and start thinking that he's a race winner.
Assuming the track doesn't get too crowded, Jakob gets WR in 12:43-12:46ish.
If he's actually doing this, as others have said, it would make sense for him to go to Millrose. If I were him, I'd go for the indoor mile WR @ 3:47.01. Since he already has the outdoor 3K WR, I don't see why he'd go for the indoor 3K WR @ 7:23.81 unless he wanted to be the 3000m GOAT or have competition with Nuguse/Fisher.
Getting the short track mile/5000 WRs in February could set up an outdoor 1500/mile/5000 WR attempt for summer 2025. A 3:45-3:46 indoor mile definitely would aid in an outdoor 3:25 1500 and/or 3:42 mile next summer, while the indoor 5K WR could set up a sub 12:30 this summer or next summer (more likely 2026 or 2027 as Jakob's prioritizing the 1500/mile for 2025 outdoor season).
12:39.99 with a 2:27 final K. He's always sharp year-round so he will be pretty close to his summer form where I think he has a shot at sub 12:30.
That would be an insane time. That is almost 1340 IAAF points. I’m gonna be more conservative and say 12:45, which is still very fast.
Indoor IAAF scores for 3k/5k mean nothing. Woody Kincaid’s 12:51.6i is NOT the equivalent of 12:37.2 outdoors.
I actually rather like the 12:39.99 with a 2:27 last K prediction. It’s bold without being certifiable. That said, 12:42-12:47 is for sure more likely.
That would be an insane time. That is almost 1340 IAAF points. I’m gonna be more conservative and say 12:45, which is still very fast.
Indoor IAAF scores for 3k/5k mean nothing. Woody Kincaid’s 12:51.6i is NOT the equivalent of 12:37.2 outdoors.
I actually rather like the 12:39.99 with a 2:27 last K prediction. It’s bold without being certifiable. That said, 12:42-12:47 is for sure more likely.
I will make a bold prediction: He will go sub 12:37.50 and perhaps even break the outdoor WR if he can train without interruptions (no illness or injury) until Feb 2025.
He could be paced to 7:37.50 for 3000m (61 per lap) and then go sub 5 for the last 2000m, including sub 2:30 for the last 1000m (he ran low 2:22 for his last 1000m in his 3000m WR race).
Before people go "Bananas" over my prediction consider this:
1. 7:37.50 for 3000m is 2.66 seconds slower per lap than his 3000m WR time.
2. 5 minutes for the last 2000m is 17 seconds slower than his 2000m WR.
3. He will possibly be at least as aerobically strong in Feb 2025 as he was in the 3000m WR race. And aerobic strenght is the main requierement for running a fast 5000m.
4. I predicted he could go close to 59 per lap before the 2 miles WB race in 2023. He dipped just under 59.
I predicted he would go sub 4:44 - if in good shape - before the 2000m WR race in 2023. He ran low 4:43.
I predicted he would go sub 7:19 before the 3000m WR race in september.
If Blanks should choose to participate in the indoor WR attempt in Feb 2025 he will set a new PB but still finish 15-20 seconds behind Jakob.
I think he could have competed for bronze if he had participated in the recent Euro X country champs, that means he would have finished around 15 seconds behind the winner.
If Blanks should choose to participate in the indoor WR attempt in Feb 2025 he will set a new PB but still finish 15-20 seconds behind Jakob.
I think he could have competed for bronze if he had participated in the recent Euro X country champs, that means he would have finished around 15 seconds behind the winner.
He could’ve competed for silver. Yes Thierry is a big name but isn’t the word he was having physical issues? Blanks is as fast as Crippa. Not saying he beats him but he’s there.
Blanks if healthy and all systems go I think could be 10-15s back by Feb. 2025. I think 12:55 is a realistic goal for him for then. Jakob surely will go out at 12:50 pace and then bang it home to drop Fisher who probably maxes out at 12:44-47. What could give this real intrigue and change things is if Hagos who is doing GST and could consider basing himself in the US would jump in.
given the 5k is deemed his best event (due to the fact that he’s won 3 consecutive golds, and that’s without really running it in the main season), he’s not running 12:48 or 12:47. The ‘highest’ I think we see him go is 12:45, but I think we’ll certainly see below that number. Look at the statistics behind his record attempts. It doesn’t make sense in his best event that he would only barely break it.
given the 5k is deemed his best event (due to the fact that he’s won 3 consecutive golds, and that’s without really running it in the main season), he’s not running 12:48 or 12:47. The ‘highest’ I think we see him go is 12:45, but I think we’ll certainly see below that number. Look at the statistics behind his record attempts. It doesn’t make sense in his best event that he would only barely break it.
Still think the 3k is his best event, but would be happy to be proven wrong. 7:17 is probably worth a 12:33-5. The pace will have to be hot to hit under 12:40 and he can check the box and win comfortably in low-12:40s. That is unless Hagos jumps in.
This post was edited 48 seconds after it was posted.
1) It says to me that with respect to records, he is now beginning his shift in focus towards the 5000m which I think is really smart from him at this point in his career.
2) It's also going to give us a good idea what to expect in the outdoor season if he lines up a few 5000's to go after.
And of course the track has wavelight so no issues for Jakob to worry about with respect to pacing. I don't really have too much of a feeling what exact performance we will see but I do think sub 12.40 is far too ambitious for the beginning of Feb, but I could definitely think Bekeles WR can go. Pencil in for a low to mid 12.48.
This post was edited 11 seconds after it was posted.
The indoor 5K WR could also help with the outdoor 1500/mile as it reinforces his strength/endurance in winter.
He missed indoors last year with an injury, but his strength/endurance for outdoor track, was outstanding. There isn’t necessarily a consistent correlation between indoor and outdoor track.
It’s pretty likely this is going down, if you go on the NB Indoor Grand Prix site they have a picture of Jakob and other runners. Clearly they are advertising him.
Crazy how Bekele’s last track world record is going to be gone in less than 2 months time. I know he ran 2000m Indoors as well but that time is pretty weak compared to Jakob’s 2k Outdoors.
What do we think he runs? 12:45?
He runs 12:20
Book it
This is obviously a joke, but I would not be at all surprised if he runs 12:40
blanks could barely go sub 13, and now you are giving him 10 more seconds?
The kid has a track record of sharp improvement curves and is still on the upswing from a major injury. I'm not saying he runs 12:50 or not but he definitely will shave off some time from his 12:59.
Nah, he ran 12:59 at BU, won't break 13 at NB., BU is the fastest track in the world.
If Blanks should choose to participate in the indoor WR attempt in Feb 2025 he will set a new PB but still finish 15-20 seconds behind Jakob.
I think he could have competed for bronze if he had participated in the recent Euro X country champs, that means he would have finished around 15 seconds behind the winner.
He could’ve competed for silver. Yes Thierry is a big name but isn’t the word he was having physical issues? Blanks is as fast as Crippa. Not saying he beats him but he’s there.
Blanks if healthy and all systems go I think could be 10-15s back by Feb. 2025. I think 12:55 is a realistic goal for him for then. Jakob surely will go out at 12:50 pace and then bang it home to drop Fisher who probably maxes out at 12:44-47. What could give this real intrigue and change things is if Hagos who is doing GST and could consider basing himself in the US would jump in.
Thierry had sciatica which is unpleasant but in my experience it is NOT hurting your performances (I had cronic sciatica the last half of my soccer career (lasting more than 40 years) and in my veteran runner career (lasting around 12 years)).
Thierry just isn´t close to Jakob´s level.
Neither is Almgren who struggled all the way to keep in contact and immediately lost ground when Jakob took the lead around 2/3 through.
I think Crippa ran one of the best races of his life. I doubt Blanks could have challenged him.
Assuming the track doesn't get too crowded, Jakob gets WR in 12:43-12:46ish.
If he's actually doing this, as others have said, it would make sense for him to go to Millrose. If I were him, I'd go for the indoor mile WR @ 3:47.01. Since he already has the outdoor 3K WR, I don't see why he'd go for the indoor 3K WR @ 7:23.81 unless he wanted to be the 3000m GOAT or have competition with Nuguse/Fisher.
Getting the short track mile/5000 WRs in February could set up an outdoor 1500/mile/5000 WR attempt for summer 2025. A 3:45-3:46 indoor mile definitely would aid in an outdoor 3:25 1500 and/or 3:42 mile next summer, while the indoor 5K WR could set up a sub 12:30 this summer or next summer (more likely 2026 or 2027 as Jakob's prioritizing the 1500/mile for 2025 outdoor season).
And Hocker in the 3000m. Not sure how I missed that.
That would be an insane time. That is almost 1340 IAAF points. I’m gonna be more conservative and say 12:45, which is still very fast.
Indoor IAAF scores for 3k/5k mean nothing. Woody Kincaid’s 12:51.6i is NOT the equivalent of 12:37.2 outdoors.
I actually rather like the 12:39.99 with a 2:27 last K prediction. It’s bold without being certifiable. That said, 12:42-12:47 is for sure more likely.
That he will run a time in the range 12:42 - 12:47 is - for sure?- more likely than to run 12:39.99 with 2:27 last K? Are you really sure about that? 1 concrete time against 600 times? You are really some genius.
Thierry had sciatica which is unpleasant but in my experience it is NOT hurting your performances (I had cronic sciatica the last half of my soccer career (lasting more than 40 years) and in my veteran runner career (lasting around 12 years)).
Thierry just isn´t close to Jakob´s level.
Neither is Almgren who struggled all the way to keep in contact and immediately lost ground when Jakob took the lead around 2/3 through.
I think Crippa ran one of the best races of his life. I doubt Blanks could have challenged him.
What supports you narrative is clearly this: Crippa, Ndikumwenayo, Kimeli, Almgren and Schrub have all improved significantly in the distances (f.x 5/10k and HM) the last years, so beating them that easily speaks volume…
I think there’s no doubt this race is Jakob’s best above 5k. How good is it? -Hard to say; if it had been 10k and the pace hard and even from the start we would have known more. But I see this race as a token of Jakob doing something effectively with his long race endurance…
This post was edited 2 minutes after it was posted.
well, his PB is 12:48, so clearly he can only run 12:48 (i'm mocking a certain popular poster). He smashes it. He is currently at a 100% success rate in world records where he says he is actually going for it. He said he was going for the 1500 indoor. He smashed it. 2 mile outdoor. Smashed. 2k outdoor. Smashed. 3k outdoor. Smashed. If he says hes going for it, hes gonna get it, and there is absolutely no reason for us to think he wont. Note that when he does attempt a WR, its not a close margin when he crosses the line. Can't wait for everyone to say his indoor WR does not inform an outdoor WR attempt because for some reason, indoor doesn't count.
Perhaps, by the same reasoning, he should have said he was going to "smash it" in all those 1500 finals he lost. Words are cheap.
This post was edited 2 minutes after it was posted.
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