Men's 1500m global championship parity: A historic streak, how long will it last?

Kickers kicked wrote:

rappatic wrote:

The most likely candidates besides the big 3 are Nuguse, Kessler, or Komen. One of them would have to win next year. Not impossible but relatively unlikely IMO

It’s only unlikely because you are basing your probability off of the data you know now, which in general is a sane strategy, but we’ve seen that the 1500m has been almost impossible to predict a year out.

2016: Centro. In 2015, Asbel Kiprop became the global champion for the 3rd time. He ran a PR or 3:26.69 which was over 2 seconds faster than the next faster runner and about 5 seconds faster then Centrowitz, the eventual winner in 2016. Centrowitz was unlikely a year out.

2017: Elijah Manangoi. In 2016, 12 men made the Olympic final. Manangoi was not one of them. Manangoi ran 3:31.19 in 2016 but ran 3:28.80 became world champion. Manangoi was unlikely a year out.

2019: Tim Cheruiyot. Tim ran the fastest time in the world in 2018. Tim had also placed 2nd in the previous world championships. Tim was likely a year out.

2020 / 2021: Jakob. Coming into 2020, Tim had just run the fastest time in the world in both 2018 and 2019. He punished everyone in the WC2019 final in probably the most dominant win in the modern era. But then covid struck. The 2020 Olympics were pushed back. The additional time allowed Jakob to mature into a contender. Jakob was unlikely a year out of 2020.

2022: Wightman. In 2021, Jakob was 1 month shy of his 22nd birthday. Wightman had just finished 10th and has just turned 27. Wightman over 6 seconds behind Jakob in the Olympic final. Wightman was unlikely a year out.

2023: Kerr. Wightman had just run 1:43 / 3:29 and Jakob had run 3:27 in 2022. With the previous 3 global champions all returning in 2023, it was very unlikely that Kerr would win. Kerr was unlikely a year out.

2024: Hocker. In 2023, Hocker was 5th, well off the lead. Kerr had just won the world championship Jakob had run 3:27 low. The entire world and media focused on the two man showdown. Hocker was unlikely a year out.

Kickers kicked wrote:

It’s only unlikely because you are basing your probability off of the data you know now, which in general is a sane strategy, but we’ve seen that the 1500m has been almost impossible to predict a year out.

2016: Centro. In 2015, Asbel Kiprop became the global champion for the 3rd time. He ran a PR or 3:26.69 which was over 2 seconds faster than the next faster runner and about 5 seconds faster then Centrowitz, the eventual winner in 2016. Centrowitz was unlikely a year out.

2017: Elijah Manangoi. In 2016, 12 men made the Olympic final. Manangoi was not one of them. Manangoi ran 3:31.19 in 2016 but ran 3:28.80 became world champion. Manangoi was unlikely a year out.

2019: Tim Cheruiyot. Tim ran the fastest time in the world in 2018. Tim had also placed 2nd in the previous world championships. Tim was likely a year out.

2020 / 2021: Jakob. Coming into 2020, Tim had just run the fastest time in the world in both 2018 and 2019. He punished everyone in the WC2019 final in probably the most dominant win in the modern era. But then covid struck. The 2020 Olympics were pushed back. The additional time allowed Jakob to mature into a contender. Jakob was unlikely a year out of 2020.

2022: Wightman. In 2021, Jakob was 1 month shy of his 22nd birthday. Wightman had just finished 10th and has just turned 27. Wightman over 6 seconds behind Jakob in the Olympic final. Wightman was unlikely a year out.

2023: Kerr. Wightman had just run 1:43 / 3:29 and Jakob had run 3:27 in 2022. With the previous 3 global champions all returning in 2023, it was very unlikely that Kerr would win. Kerr was unlikely a year out.

2024: Hocker. In 2023, Hocker was 5th, well off the lead. Kerr had just won the world championship Jakob had run 3:27 low. The entire world and media focused on the two man showdown. Hocker was unlikely a year out.

Peach Pit wrote:

Kickers kicked wrote:

It’s only unlikely because you are basing your probability off of the data you know now, which in general is a sane strategy, but we’ve seen that the 1500m has been almost impossible to predict a year out.

2016: Centro. In 2015, Asbel Kiprop became the global champion for the 3rd time. He ran a PR or 3:26.69 which was over 2 seconds faster than the next faster runner and about 5 seconds faster then Centrowitz, the eventual winner in 2016. Centrowitz was unlikely a year out.

2017: Elijah Manangoi. In 2016, 12 men made the Olympic final. Manangoi was not one of them. Manangoi ran 3:31.19 in 2016 but ran 3:28.80 became world champion. Manangoi was unlikely a year out.

2019: Tim Cheruiyot. Tim ran the fastest time in the world in 2018. Tim had also placed 2nd in the previous world championships. Tim was likely a year out.

2020 / 2021: Jakob. Coming into 2020, Tim had just run the fastest time in the world in both 2018 and 2019. He punished everyone in the WC2019 final in probably the most dominant win in the modern era. But then covid struck. The 2020 Olympics were pushed back. The additional time allowed Jakob to mature into a contender. Jakob was unlikely a year out of 2020.

2022: Wightman. In 2021, Jakob was 1 month shy of his 22nd birthday. Wightman had just finished 10th and has just turned 27. Wightman over 6 seconds behind Jakob in the Olympic final. Wightman was unlikely a year out.

2023: Kerr. Wightman had just run 1:43 / 3:29 and Jakob had run 3:27 in 2022. With the previous 3 global champions all returning in 2023, it was very unlikely that Kerr would win. Kerr was unlikely a year out.

2024: Hocker. In 2023, Hocker was 5th, well off the lead. Kerr had just won the world championship Jakob had run 3:27 low. The entire world and media focused on the two man showdown. Hocker was unlikely a year out.

What a good post. Good info, well formatted, very informative, and concise. Thank you.

I want to argue over Jakob and Centro because Centro got silver in 2015 and Jakob got 4th/5th in the 15/5 double at age like 18 in 2019. Centro was already one of the most consistent championship performers in the world, and I think everyone expected Jakob to be contending for gold by 2021 at the latest. But you're right, they definitely weren't the safe pick a year out from their wins (or 2 years out in Jakob's case).

THOUGHTSLEADER wrote:

Kickers kicked wrote:

It’s only unlikely because you are basing your probability off of the data you know now, which in general is a sane strategy, but we’ve seen that the 1500m has been almost impossible to predict a year out.

2016: Centro. In 2015, Asbel Kiprop became the global champion for the 3rd time. He ran a PR or 3:26.69 which was over 2 seconds faster than the next faster runner and about 5 seconds faster then Centrowitz, the eventual winner in 2016. Centrowitz was unlikely a year out.

2017: Elijah Manangoi. In 2016, 12 men made the Olympic final. Manangoi was not one of them. Manangoi ran 3:31.19 in 2016 but ran 3:28.80 became world champion. Manangoi was unlikely a year out.

2019: Tim Cheruiyot. Tim ran the fastest time in the world in 2018. Tim had also placed 2nd in the previous world championships. Tim was likely a year out.

2020 / 2021: Jakob. Coming into 2020, Tim had just run the fastest time in the world in both 2018 and 2019. He punished everyone in the WC2019 final in probably the most dominant win in the modern era. But then covid struck. The 2020 Olympics were pushed back. The additional time allowed Jakob to mature into a contender. Jakob was unlikely a year out of 2020.

2022: Wightman. In 2021, Jakob was 1 month shy of his 22nd birthday. Wightman had just finished 10th and has just turned 27. Wightman over 6 seconds behind Jakob in the Olympic final. Wightman was unlikely a year out.

2023: Kerr. Wightman had just run 1:43 / 3:29 and Jakob had run 3:27 in 2022. With the previous 3 global champions all returning in 2023, it was very unlikely that Kerr would win. Kerr was unlikely a year out.

2024: Hocker. In 2023, Hocker was 5th, well off the lead. Kerr had just won the world championship Jakob had run 3:27 low. The entire world and media focused on the two man showdown. Hocker was unlikely a year out.

Good analysis. I'd say you might need a different category for Jakob/Mananagoi. Mroe of a slightly unlikely.

For Manangoi, he did win silver in 2015 at Worlds and ran 3:29.6 in that season. He was injured in 2016, but entering 2017 he was definitely a real name in a crowded field filled with major question marks. Kiprop/Iguider/Souleiman/Willis had their best years behind them, and unsurpisingly fell off further in 2017.
Makhloufi, Kwemoi and Centrowitz got injured. That really left a uniquely weak crop (just 2 consistent sub-3:31 guys) behind with Manangoi and Cheruiyot able to literally run away from the field.

Jakob also really only needed one name to falter in the 1500, and that was Tim. In 2020, he looked second best in the world. In 2019, honestly he was too, but underperformed in losing to Lewandowski and Makhloufi.

These are different than Hocker (~10th best entering 2024), Kerr (~7th or 8th best entering 2023 after a miserable 2022), Wightman (~6th or 7th best entering 2022), Centro (~5th or 6th best entering 2016).

Nuguse is definitely the guy to watch for more of the slightly unlikely category. In the real upsets, you'd look at Laros, Kessler or Komen.

Wrong Again wrote:

McRunnin wrote:

We have now had 8 consecutive outdoor global championships with a different winner in the men's 1500:

• 2015: Asbel Kiprop
• 2016: Matthew Centrowitz
• 2017: Elijah Manangoi
• 2019: Timothy Cheruiyot
• 2021: Jakob Ingebrigtsen
• 2022: Jake Wightman
• 2023: Josh Kerr
• 2024: Cole Hocker

This is the longest streak in the event since the advent of the world championships (counting winners from the 1980 Olympics on). The previous "event record" was 5, which was done twice: from 1984-1992 (Sebastian Coe, Abdi Bile, Peter Rono, Noureddine Morceli, and Fermin Castro) and again from 2004-2009 (Hicham El Guerrouj, Rashid Ramzi, Bernard Lagat, Asbel Kiprop, and Yusuf Kamel).

The current streak of 8 is tied for third among all men's track events since 1980, with the 400 and steeple streaks that coincided from 1980-1992. The second-longest streak is the 800, with 10 different winners from 1999-2011. The longest streak is in the 5,000, which had 11 different winners from 1995-2008.

How long do you think this historic streak will continue? Do you think it can break the "track record" of 11, held by the 5,000?

Note: When I say "different winner," I mean someone who hasn't won previously within the current streak, not including the first guy (who was the last guy to repeat). So, if any of the 8 men listed above wins again, the streak is broken.

Jakob wins next year easily. He knows what to do now.

Kickers kicked wrote:

rappatic wrote:

The most likely candidates besides the big 3 are Nuguse, Kessler, or Komen. One of them would have to win next year. Not impossible but relatively unlikely IMO

It’s only unlikely because you are basing your probability off of the data you know now, which in general is a sane strategy, but we’ve seen that the 1500m has been almost impossible to predict a year out.

2016: Centro. In 2015, Asbel Kiprop became the global champion for the 3rd time. He ran a PR or 3:26.69 which was over 2 seconds faster than the next faster runner and about 5 seconds faster then Centrowitz, the eventual winner in 2016. Centrowitz was unlikely a year out.

2017: Elijah Manangoi. In 2016, 12 men made the Olympic final. Manangoi was not one of them. Manangoi ran 3:31.19 in 2016 but ran 3:28.80 became world champion. Manangoi was unlikely a year out.

2019: Tim Cheruiyot. Tim ran the fastest time in the world in 2018. Tim had also placed 2nd in the previous world championships. Tim was likely a year out.

2020 / 2021: Jakob. Coming into 2020, Tim had just run the fastest time in the world in both 2018 and 2019. He punished everyone in the WC2019 final in probably the most dominant win in the modern era. But then covid struck. The 2020 Olympics were pushed back. The additional time allowed Jakob to mature into a contender. Jakob was unlikely a year out of 2020.

2022: Wightman. In 2021, Jakob was 1 month shy of his 22nd birthday. Wightman had just finished 10th and has just turned 27. Wightman over 6 seconds behind Jakob in the Olympic final. Wightman was unlikely a year out.

2023: Kerr. Wightman had just run 1:43 / 3:29 and Jakob had run 3:27 in 2022. With the previous 3 global champions all returning in 2023, it was very unlikely that Kerr would win. Kerr was unlikely a year out.

2024: Hocker. In 2023, Hocker was 5th, well off the lead. Kerr had just won the world championship Jakob had run 3:27 low. The entire world and media focused on the two man showdown. Hocker was unlikely a year out.

my two pennies wrote:

Kickers kicked wrote:

It’s only unlikely because you are basing your probability off of the data you know now, which in general is a sane strategy, but we’ve seen that the 1500m has been almost impossible to predict a year out.

2016: Centro. In 2015, Asbel Kiprop became the global champion for the 3rd time. He ran a PR or 3:26.69 which was over 2 seconds faster than the next faster runner and about 5 seconds faster then Centrowitz, the eventual winner in 2016. Centrowitz was unlikely a year out.

2017: Elijah Manangoi. In 2016, 12 men made the Olympic final. Manangoi was not one of them. Manangoi ran 3:31.19 in 2016 but ran 3:28.80 became world champion. Manangoi was unlikely a year out.

2019: Tim Cheruiyot. Tim ran the fastest time in the world in 2018. Tim had also placed 2nd in the previous world championships. Tim was likely a year out.

2020 / 2021: Jakob. Coming into 2020, Tim had just run the fastest time in the world in both 2018 and 2019. He punished everyone in the WC2019 final in probably the most dominant win in the modern era. But then covid struck. The 2020 Olympics were pushed back. The additional time allowed Jakob to mature into a contender. Jakob was unlikely a year out of 2020.

2022: Wightman. In 2021, Jakob was 1 month shy of his 22nd birthday. Wightman had just finished 10th and has just turned 27. Wightman over 6 seconds behind Jakob in the Olympic final. Wightman was unlikely a year out.

2023: Kerr. Wightman had just run 1:43 / 3:29 and Jakob had run 3:27 in 2022. With the previous 3 global champions all returning in 2023, it was very unlikely that Kerr would win. Kerr was unlikely a year out.

2024: Hocker. In 2023, Hocker was 5th, well off the lead. Kerr had just won the world championship Jakob had run 3:27 low. The entire world and media focused on the two man showdown. Hocker was unlikely a year out.

Great post, just one little correction - Hocker was 7th in 2023 (so even more unlikely). My pick for the "unlikely champion of 2025" would have to be Nordas. Medalist in 2023 and looked like he could've won with different tactics, poor showing in 2024, being written off, but clearly major talent. Not unlike Centro in 2016 (2013 medalist but poor in 2015) or even Hocker this year (who was hugely hyped in 2021 but fell off the radar for 2022 and underperformed in 2023).

MidHobbyJogger wrote:

I think Nordås this Olympic year is more comparable to Josh Kerr in 2022 than Centro. Both had career years with highlights for both men coming from a bronze medal at the global championships (Nordås in Budapest 2023 and Kerr in Tokyo 2021) and the season after their breakthrough years were very lackluster with underwhelming performances at the next global championships (Paris 2024 for Nordås and Oregon 2022 for Kerr). Both men finished well outside the podium and both ran their season’s best in the 1500m final at their respective championship in almost identical times with Nordås running 3:30.46 for 7th in Paris and Kerr running 3:30.60 for 5th in Oregon (4th if you write off Mo Katir’s bronze for his doping violation). The difference may come from how Nordås is going to perform next year, he can either rise above as Kerr did in Budapest or he could also underperform for a second time relative to his breakout 2023 season.

THOUGHTSLEADER wrote:

MidHobbyJogger wrote:

I think Nordås this Olympic year is more comparable to Josh Kerr in 2022 than Centro. Both had career years with highlights for both men coming from a bronze medal at the global championships (Nordås in Budapest 2023 and Kerr in Tokyo 2021) and the season after their breakthrough years were very lackluster with underwhelming performances at the next global championships (Paris 2024 for Nordås and Oregon 2022 for Kerr). Both men finished well outside the podium and both ran their season’s best in the 1500m final at their respective championship in almost identical times with Nordås running 3:30.46 for 7th in Paris and Kerr running 3:30.60 for 5th in Oregon (4th if you write off Mo Katir’s bronze for his doping violation). The difference may come from how Nordås is going to perform next year, he can either rise above as Kerr did in Budapest or he could also underperform for a second time relative to his breakout 2023 season.

The other factor is that the competition simply looks stronger in 2025 than in 2022-23.

From 2022-23, we've lost Wightman, Kipsang and Katir. But the field has gained Nuguse and Hocker running under 3:28. Kerr and Jakob have gotten better. Kessler and Laros look like potential sub-3:29 guys next year, if not faster. Then Komen could be a factor in his second season at this level, and Tim could be better if he gets a proper buildup. We'll see on guys like Reynold Cheruiyot, Oliver Hoare, Wightman, Mills and Myers.

Had Nordas run the same race that he ran in Paris that he ran in Budapest, he would likely be finishing 5th not 3rd. You could argue the goalposts will continue to move upward, and Nordas with his injury-free, volume-heavy approach might not be able to keep up with it. We'll see.

MidHobbyJogger wrote:

my two pennies wrote:

Great post, just one little correction - Hocker was 7th in 2023 (so even more unlikely). My pick for the "unlikely champion of 2025" would have to be Nordas. Medalist in 2023 and looked like he could've won with different tactics, poor showing in 2024, being written off, but clearly major talent. Not unlike Centro in 2016 (2013 medalist but poor in 2015) or even Hocker this year (who was hugely hyped in 2021 but fell off the radar for 2022 and underperformed in 2023).

I think Nordås this Olympic year is more comparable to Josh Kerr in 2022 than Centro. Both had career years with highlights for both men coming from a bronze medal at the global championships (Nordås in Budapest 2023 and Kerr in Tokyo 2021) and the season after their breakthrough years were very lackluster with underwhelming performances at the next global championships (Paris 2024 for Nordås and Oregon 2022 for Kerr). Both men finished well outside the podium and both ran their season’s best in the 1500m final at their respective championship in almost identical times with Nordås running 3:30.46 for 7th in Paris and Kerr running 3:30.60 for 5th in Oregon (4th if you write off Mo Katir’s bronze for his doping violation). The difference may come from how Nordås is going to perform next year, he can either rise above as Kerr did in Budapest or he could also underperform for a second time relative to his breakout 2023 season.