How many guys can run 12:55 in the 5k? Answer: A lot.
How many guys can run 12:55, and can outkick Cheptegei? Answer: Not zero.
How many guys can run 12:55, and can outkick Cheptegei if he rabbits them around for the entire race? Answer: At least half a dozen, if not the entire field in a championship final.
One of the guys from House of Run (I know, I know...) said something years ago that, for me, made total sense.
But, as no one is racing that way, I assume the reasoning is flawed. I have never raced track, for context.
His take for any athlete competing from 1500 to 10000 (he used Cheptegei as the example, it was before the 2021 Olympics):
The athlete and his team determine the fastest he should be able to run on race day (considering current level of fitness, athlete sensations, weather, load from heats if apply... and so on). Today's tracking, data analysis and sports science allow for a very precise estimate.
Let's say they agree he could run 26:30, i.e.
Any top tier track athlete can be a human metronome, pretty much nailing the lap time he wants. Plus they can check every 200/400.
And they are even more exact if they lock a constant pace. And that's the whole idea:
Running the most even laps possible (as it has been proven the most efficient way of managing energy) to clock a time slightly slower than how fast he and his trainers determined the athlete should be able to run that given day. In order to prevent blowing out and saving enough in the tank to close the final lap as the fastest one.
If he feels good enough, he could turn up the pace with 1k, 2 laps... to go, approaching or even exceeding his estimated upper projected performance for this race.
And every athlete should run that way, doesn't matter what the other racers are doing.
Why can't people set PRs alone on a track in an empty stadium? Can they? If not, why not?
The consensus is that they can't run their best alone on the track and without fans in the stadium (competition being more important than spectators). It is mentally demanding to push through pain in a fast race for a long distance. On the other hand, it is easier to stay behind someone who is running fast and even easier to stay in a group in a fast pace. There's a wind component too, but I'm not sure how much.
#1 Drafting actually plays a factor at 10000 or even 5000 speed?
#2 If let's say Cheptegei just sticks to clock i.e. 62" laps until the bell and then close with everything he has left... that wouldn't suppress that mental stress/anxiety/fatigue?
Think of it this way, if you are running in the lead, you have a set of cognitive challenges on your plate: "is this the right pace, am I dropping anyone, how are the others feeling, is it windy, are they just waiting to pass me, why can't I get a gap..."
If you are tucked into second or third place, you can switch off all those thought and just lock on to the leader. You have one thought, "just stay with this guy."
It might only be a 1-2% difference in energy, but when everyone is basically equally fit, that 1-2% makes all the difference.
Plus the actual draft might be another 1%.
So yeah, it matters when the athletes are essentially physically equal. And it doesn't matter when I (slow) run against someone else (fast). They can do whatever they want. They don't need tactics.
One of the guys from House of Run (I know, I know...) said something years ago that, for me, made total sense.
But, as no one is racing that way, I assume the reasoning is flawed. I have never raced track, for context.
His take for any athlete competing from 1500 to 10000 (he used Cheptegei as the example, it was before the 2021 Olympics):
The athlete and his team determine the fastest he should be able to run on race day (considering current level of fitness, athlete sensations, weather, load from heats if apply... and so on). Today's tracking, data analysis and sports science allow for a very precise estimate.
Let's say they agree he could run 26:30, i.e.
Any top tier track athlete can be a human metronome, pretty much nailing the lap time he wants. Plus they can check every 200/400.
And they are even more exact if they lock a constant pace. And that's the whole idea:
Running the most even laps possible (as it has been proven the most efficient way of managing energy) to clock a time slightly slower than how fast he and his trainers determined the athlete should be able to run that given day. In order to prevent blowing out and saving enough in the tank to close the final lap as the fastest one.
If he feels good enough, he could turn up the pace with 1k, 2 laps... to go, approaching or even exceeding his estimated upper projected performance for this race.
And every athlete should run that way, doesn't matter what the other racers are doing.
So. What's wrong in this reasoning?
Thanks in advance!
The point of race tactics like dog whistling and identity politics is to get more votes.
I didn't read the whole thing but generally speaking the only time front running like that works is if you are significantly better than your competitor. If you are remotely close in fitness, you will need to do more than just use the race as a TT.
As a runner who was in the UK club-system for over 20 years, then raced regular 5ks on the roads in the US for many years, and finally ran Masters track, I've probably run in literally 100s of racing when I was "racing" that is competing for a win rather than being in the middle of the pack and running for the best time I could get (done plenty of those too).
There are times I took that exactly the even pace approach, particularly in the 3000m steeplechase, where it frequently proved very successful.
It only works though when you are the best in the field (or better runners go off too fast). With runners of very slightly less, equal or better ability that pace themselves well, it's too hard to run away from them in front (see Ron Clarke, Dave Bedford). I had a reasonably good kick, so I'd often benefit from a slower pace, and was sometimes able to beat better athletes.
I'd say if the early pace is significantly better than you are in shape to run, then even-pace is best, if not then tactics (which can include a break away effort, a long run for home, or sit and kick) come into it.
Thanks for that. Well, there it is i guess. I have hard time imagining that much of draft advantage at these slow speeds. 1 sec per 400 seems insane with no wind? But, thats what the data says I guess.
One caveat,, many elites are taught to run on outside shoulder of person in 1st place as "ideal" position. Kind of makes you wonder.
Think of it this way, if you are running in the lead, you have a set of cognitive challenges on your plate: "is this the right pace, am I dropping anyone, how are the others feeling, is it windy, are they just waiting to pass me, why can't I get a gap..."
If you are tucked into second or third place, you can switch off all those thought and just lock on to the leader. You have one thought, "just stay with this guy."
It might only be a 1-2% difference in energy, but when everyone is basically equally fit, that 1-2% makes all the difference.
If you just blindly trust & follow the plan set (i.e. run even 6x" laps until the bell or two laps to go if you feel you got a bit more on the legs/tank)...
...Couldn't you be as mentally destressed as anyone following?
If you just blindly trust & follow the plan set (i.e. run even 6x" laps until the bell or two laps to go if you feel you got a bit more on the legs/tank)...
...Couldn't you be as mentally destressed as anyone following?
Thks!
Running even-paced laps takes effort. Runners are very good at consistency, but to assume it's effortless is incorrect.
Thanks for that. Well, there it is i guess. I have hard time imagining that much of draft advantage at these slow speeds. 1 sec per 400 seems insane with no wind? But, thats what the data says I guess.
One caveat,, many elites are taught to run on outside shoulder of person in 1st place as "ideal" position. Kind of makes you wonder.
that is a thing people say, but when you watch the diamond league time trial type races, they are sitting directly behind the pacers until go time.
And 1 second per lap is pretty extreme. When you look at Jakob's time of low 3:28 in the olympics, if he had a pacer for the first 1200 meters, that give you a 3:25 low for him. doesn't seem likely. But peak shape, I could see low 3:26 for Jakob with good pacing. I think a half second to .75 per lap is more reasonable.
Racing is different than time trialing. 2024 olympic 1500m being the best example. Cole MF Hocker took down the Norwegian Jakob Ingy. No rabbit , non-time trial style.
I think running perfectly even splits to measure out a 100% effort over a given distance in an extremely high-adrenaline environment is more difficult than you think it is
A general plan is probably a good idea. But it is only as good as our ability to monitor and adjust it according to circumstances. The most impressive "tactical" success stories I have seen have been last-second moves that came from awake-and-aware perception and action. (Backed of course with the ultimate strategy: conditioning and motivation.) Mills, Wottle, Centrowitz, Hocker: were sharp and watchful--and trained--and made their moves when they perceived the right time and space. Your basic senses and responses are your best friends for any "strategy!"