Kingebrigtsen will run sub 3.26, sub 3.43, 12.30, sub 26, sub 57 and sub 2. hours

You never know how long an athlete can maintain his peak. 2023 and 2024 have been crazy years in terms of physical condition. He could most likely take the 5k WR this season if he tries. It is still quite probable that he will be able to take it in future years but who knows. Maybe he will get injured next winter and will never reach the 2024 shape again.

And even without major injuries it is very difficult to stay in WR shape. For example Warholm had a dream year in 2021 and has been very good even during 22-24. He had some injuries but nothing insurmountable. Still he hasn't been able to reach his -21 shape again.

My guesses for his chances:

1500m WR - 40%

mile WR - 70%

5k - 70%

10k - 50%

HM - 20% (I doubt that he will ever run this distance during his peak years)

Marathon - 3%

I hope that he manages to take the 1500m WR in Zurich or Brussels this summer because it very well could be that he will never reach this kind of 1500m shape again.

I agree. Those numbers seem to reflect his current shape if he raced those races on a good day and in great conditions. Although I would say that 3:25.hi performance for him is probably equivalent 12:29 performance in 5k.

Here is realistic chances actually:

1500m: 0%

Mile: 8%

5000m: 50%

10.000m: 15%

HM: 0%

Maraton: 0%

Sensibility returns

He will likely get the world record in the 5k and the 10k-not sure he has the raw speed 800m speed to beat the 1500 or 1 mile. He is not better than El Guerrouj, yet. The shoe technology gives him an advantage too.

No, he’s probably reached a plateau, but like other runners have done, he can maintain it for 5 years, or so, and definitely until the 2028 Olympics.

1500 325

mile 441

2 k 3k 2mile as is

5k 1225

10 k 2548

half 5645

marathon 1:59

will need his sponsors to pay multiple pacers.. to 2/3 the total distance or no super quantum leap.

in the 10k, there may be no pacer thatcan hold that pace. but 26 flat would be "easy" for jacob, as it was for bekele, in his best prime.

Matt London is beating all of these at Zurich, stop playing

I think the assumption that he is less efficient than Ryan Hall and Galen Rupp is a risky bet. I am confident that Jakob can run faster (in new shoes) than those guys did ten years ago.

Jakob is not a lock for the marathon, I agree with you in that, but 2:06 might not be as hard as we think for superstars like this.

Nordas

Oh, yeah. You probably wrote the same last year and the year before.

His 7:17 WR in the 3000m shows that he has improved SIGNIFICANTLY from his record breaking last year. This 3000m WR equals a 2 miles in mid 7:51 more than 2.5 seconds faster than his low 7:54 WB from last year.

So why do you think he has reached a plateau/ peaked?

Fan is an abbreviation of fantasist.

You mad bro?

He probably knows precisely his lactate threshold and speed at LT, which he should be able to hold for close to an hour. From these numbers he can pretty accurately estimate his HM time under ideal conditions/training, and if it results in a higher IAAF points score then his shorter distances, which require more speed (his weakness many say), then the HM is his strongest event. I have no doubt he knows that an HM attempt requires changes to his training.

He's relatively tall/heavy for the marathon, nice guy to draft off of, and it's tougher to predict what pace he can hold for some unknown amount slower than LT, so it seems too speculative to call it his best event.

For an ignoramus like you, maybe.

And even if someone has plateaued, they can still improve if they haven't yet run: with perfect pacing, on the rail as much as possible, in perfect weather conditions, on the fastest track surface at the optimal elevation with the best competitors/pacers** and mindset. Throw in a really supportive crowd for another slight bump and you've got a PB at the same fitness level. It can take years of attempts for all the stars to align!

**El G had 2 great pacers, with the 2nd one holding on till about 375m to go.