That being said he always seems very much at home with the safety net of the lights in his peripheral vision and we know he likes this track. I am honestly less certain he can break this record than I was a week ago but I still think he is going to.
Having listened to the interview. Jacob has put in all the caveats as to why the WR will not happen.
The lights help if you are already at the level but are not balancing the effort over the distance. (Like FK was 0.3S away from 1500 WR in 2023)
Suffice to say no one in this race is at the 7.20.67 level. Or ever will be.
Yes. Funny how the urge to believe otherwise overpowers cold probability.
To just further alleviate any fears about the weather tomorrow - last season in the DL final where Jakob went 7.23.6 (in what was basically a tactical affair) it was run around 1pm and the temperature that day was in the high 70's low 80's. It was also perfectly sunny - no cloud cover etc. This was of course also less than 24h after running a 3.43 mile.
So again, weather is not going to be a factor tomorrow.
To just further alleviate any fears about the weather tomorrow - last season in the DL final where Jakob went 7.23.6 (in what was basically a tactical affair) it was run around 1pm and the temperature that day was in the high 70's low 80's. It was also perfectly sunny - no cloud cover etc. This was of course also less than 24h after running a 3.43 mile.
So again, weather is not going to be a factor tomorrow.
Well of course we don’t know that. I am seeing it to be a little bit windy. What do you think about that?
Yes. Funny how the urge to believe otherwise overpowers cold probability.
"cold probability"?
Maybe you could explain this concept and what it means. You sound like someone trying to make a clever, intellectual point though your use of verbiage alone. So please explain your concept of "cold probability". Cheers.
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Well of course we don’t know that. I am seeing it to be a little bit windy. What do you think about that?
Okay, where are you seeing it to be a little bit windy? That's fair, strong wind obviously isn't great for 7.5 laps of running but I would be questioning how much is actually making down to the track surface of a state of the art 45'000 seat bowl stadium? If you are seeing 10mph "wind" like I am then I have to admit that again I'm not sure that's a huge concern. But sure, we can continue to pursue every reason available why this wouldn't happen. That's a fun and positive game right?
Well of course we don’t know that. I am seeing it to be a little bit windy. What do you think about that?
Okay, where are you seeing it to be a little bit windy? That's fair, strong wind obviously isn't great for 7.5 laps of running but I would be questioning how much is actually making down to the track surface of a state of the art 45'000 seat bowl stadium? If you are seeing 10mph "wind" like I am then I have to admit that again I'm not sure that's a huge concern. But sure, we can continue to pursue every reason available why this wouldn't happen. That's a fun and positive game right?
I am not playing a game though. I am not trying to be positive or negative. I am just being realistic. Do you have an agenda? I really don’t.
Not really. When Komen broke the record in 96 it was mid 70's in the afternoon sun with no grandstands offering any shade.
80 (27C) is obviously hotter but it's 7.5 minutes of running - it's not going to be a massive determining factor. The humidity is a hair under 50% which is also fine. If he is fit enough and hits a good day the weather won't be a factor.
80 isn't hot. Where do you guys come up with crap? The race is at 5:00 pm. The Sun is low in the skys altitude.
edit. By "you guys" I don't mean you Stitch
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Having listened to the interview. Jacob has put in all the caveats as to why the WR will not happen.
The lights help if you are already at the level but are not balancing the effort over the distance. (Like FK was 0.3S away from 1500 WR in 2023)
Suffice to say no one in this race is at the 7.20.67 level. Or ever will be.
No I think two things are at play
1) Jakobs hubris has been tempered (at least for the moment) by what happened in Paris which is a good thing. He's probably learning that it's more fun when you undersell yourself a little vs oversell - especially when it comes to chasing WRs
2) He realizes himself that this is the back end of the season and while he's not on fumes yet, it's also not the same as the beginning of July.
I think he said exactly the right things. You're quite adamant about him not breaking this record? You sure? Probably a tough one to come back from credibility wise if he goes out and breaks the record tomorrow you know.
What did he say prior to his world records last year? From what I recall he was mostly low key and did not make any bold statements. Jakob knows that breaking world records is really hard, even when you're in shape.
To just further alleviate any fears about the weather tomorrow - last season in the DL final where Jakob went 7.23.6 (in what was basically a tactical affair) it was run around 1pm and the temperature that day was in the high 70's low 80's. It was also perfectly sunny - no cloud cover etc. This was of course also less than 24h after running a 3.43 mile.
So again, weather is not going to be a factor tomorrow.
Well of course we don’t know that. I am seeing it to be a little bit windy. What do you think about that?
3 m/s would be "a bit windy". 5 m/s is a formidable wind. Think about somebody sprinting into a -2m/s headwind. It adds 0,1-0,2s to your time.
Of course the stadium protects somewhat from the wind but it's still probably 2-3m/s winds on the track.
If he gets good pacing & conditions are ok, that will be the ballpark. I call a 7:17.55 just for fun as I really believe JI can run 7:15-17 if the stars align. That close in Paris 5k was exceptional. 2 x 3:38 is possible with a 3:26.