How many metres ahead will King Jingy be from the field when he smashes the 3000m WR tomorrow?

memorable name wrote:

John Wesley Harding wrote:

Over the decades, top athletes have been able to squeeze relatively more out of the longer distances. To illustrate this, look at the ratios between the mile WR and the 10k WR:

1950: 4:01.4 vs. 29:21.2 = 7.296

1960: 3:54.5 vs. 28:30.4 = 7.294

1970: 3:51.1 vs. 27:39.4 = 7.180

1980: 3:49.0 vs. 27:22.4 = 7.172

1990: 3:46.3 vs. 27:08.2 = 7.195

2000: 3:43.1 vs. 26:22.8 = 7.095

Present: 3:43.1 vs. 26:11.0 = 7.042

These numbers might not jump off the screen as significant, but in order to bring the mile WR back to the same ratio with the 10k WR as the following years, one would have to run:

2000 - 3:41.42

1990 - 3:38.35

1960 - 3:35.38

This does not mean we’re due for someone to smash 3:40, and supports my feeling that your logic is faulty.

If Jakob does run 7:16 (and I don’t think he will), it will be much stronger than the 5k WR, more like a 12:30 equivalent I figure, making Cheptegei’s 12:35.36 equal to 7:19.xx. 7:20.67 isn’t some chump time, lol.

That's true, the longer the distance, the bigger the improvement over the years. But for sure this effect is much weaker when comparing 3000m/5000m with Mile/10000m.

For me, the equivalent to 12:35.36 is around 7:17 (definitely sub 7:19).

Also, the 3000m is not the Championship distance (yes: indoors it is), so it's just naturally that the record on most occasions should be weaker than the 5k mark. This probably was not the case when Komen set the current WR in 1996. But the 5k mark has improved by 9 seconds since!

Ofef wrote:

memorable name wrote:

The 3000m WR is way behind the 5000m WR currently in terms of quality. That's clearly to see if you compare the ratio of the two marks over the last 100 years. Also, 5000 is the main distance, not 3000.

Ingebrigtsen, with his current top 1500 shape and his enormous endurance, has a chance to put the record more equal (around 7:16).

Hopefully, Kejelcha can give him a real race.

Ingebrigtsen 7:18

Kejelcha 7:19

A lot of crazy talk here. So many great runners have contested the 3000m, even if not often. Why wouldn’t one of them ever have had one of those days where everything just clicks and they are incredibly full of running? Probably a few have had those days and yet nobody has broken 7:20. All this talk of equivalence rings hollow. Kenenisa, Geb, Morceli, Hicham etc and none of them even really gave the record a real scare. Yes Jakob is the one who has shown he can possibly do it but if he ever does, don’t assume he will break 7:20. People don’t understand what is going on here. It is so easy to say the record should be this or that. There is a reason that it is not what your fantasy dictates.