Don’t know what place he’ll end up in (I think 3rd) but I bet he hangs with the leaders at the back of the lead pack and musters some sort of kick to finish 3:27.xx
Hocker seems to be getting better and sharper as the final comes into view. Kessler too. Hocker looked easy in the semifinal. I’m not even sure the winning time will be 3:27.xx, though it might be. I don’t know what Hocker is capable of, but definitely well under 3:30 and I wouldn’t want him anywhere near me with 300m to go.
exactly. those who think hocker isn't prepared for a 3:28ish final are kidding themselves. All 3 americans, perhaps, are ready for that. From what I saw, the only shaky contenders looked like Cheryiot and Komen - though obviously they can handle 3:28 race as well (at least fresh. who knows how these rounds have taken tolls). It still looks like a Jakob/Josh race, but they had better be prepared to keep the pace hot.
I’m sure they have prepared for it and expecting it. But it’s one thing to do that, and it’s another thing to go out there and run a 3:28 after 2 previous rounds, including a 3:32/3:31 semi final. PBs can still happen, but several second drops would be mighty given what the rounds. They need to hop in some 1500 DL after the Olympics while they are in this form to drop their PBs further.
I really don’t get the logic on this site. Kerr PR is 3:29 (which is outdated now, but people who say he is a 3:26 man need help), Hocker hasn’t broken 3:30, correct? High 3:29? And he’ll just drop down to 3:27? You know there’s a reason his PR is what it is, right? Noah Lyles is now a 9.79 runner, but lots of people think because he runs 9.79, he can run a 9.69. I think Hocker can break the American record AS LONG AS JAKOB PULLS HIM TOWARDS IT. But even then, that might be a 3:28.9.
Tbf, I do think it's worth mentioning that in 2021, there was the same narrative around Hocker being a 3:35 guy. If you watch that Trials race again, it's hard to argue he looks like your average 3:30 guy. He closed in 52/1:49, there's a pretty short list of runners who have run that fast with a close like that (can anyone confirm that there's ever been a sub-3:30 with a sub-53 close? excluding timing errors or hand time).
That said, 3:27 is still probably a stretch. Going into Tokyo he had a 3:35 PB and he closed it in 52/1:48, then proceeded to run 3:31 in the final. He's clearly a level above, but that 3:30 race was also a bit more even paced than his PB in 2021, so he's not going to drop 4 seconds again. I think 3:28ish is a reasonable estimation of his ability.
Because of this, I don't believe he can be considered a favorite, as I do genuinely think Kerr has 3:27 ability, and Jakob is already a 3:26 man. Everything points to a lightning fast final won in 3:27ish, and I'm inclined to believe a race like that will come down to those two men.
But I also think anyone discounting Hocker as a medal threat even in a fast race are kidding themselves, because if he does run 3:27-3:28 it will certainly be with a very very fast close. And I would say he is a serious, serious threat to win if the pace lags even a little (1:54+ at 800). As mentioned above, his Trials race is one of the fastest last laps of all time for a race that fast, and he out-kicked a bona fide 3:27 man to do it.
lets take a minute to realise how much those 2 shooting off at the mouth cost them gold. 2 years ago kerr said americans were weak ... This was a win for genuinely good guys. And i'm a kiwi.
Hocker seems to be getting better and sharper as the final comes into view. Kessler too. Hocker looked easy in the semifinal. I’m not even sure the winning time will be 3:27.xx, though it might be. I don’t know what Hocker is capable of, but definitely well under 3:30 and I wouldn’t want him anywhere near me with 300m to go.
exactly. those who think hocker isn't prepared for a 3:28ish final are kidding themselves. All 3 americans, perhaps, are ready for that. From what I saw, the only shaky contenders looked like Cheryiot and Komen - though obviously they can handle 3:28 race as well (at least fresh. who knows how these rounds have taken tolls). It still looks like a Jakob/Josh race, but they had better be prepared to keep the pace hot.
I didn’t think he would win, but I thought he would medal. Phenomenal race. Hocker executed it to perfection. As did Nuguse. Great race, well deserved victory.
I’m gonna be as calm and professional about this as much I can right now…..THAT’SRIGHT!!!! HOW YOU LIKE THAT???? ARE YOU KIDDING ME?!?!?! NAILED IT!!!! that’s right, ASK. ME. ANYTHING!!!!!
ugh I should have used my registered name for this when I woke up today and decided to be Nostradamus
Disagree, I think Hocker is underrated on this board. There were several people still thinking making the final was in question for Hocker leading into Paris. The Letsrun pod with Centro after the semis was the first time I've seen the BroJos say that Hocker is better than Nuguse.
Hocker is not better than Nuguse. There is a zero percent chance Hocker will run 3:27 today and i would say a 10% chance he runs 3:27 in his lifetime.
There are a lot of ouchies on the first page of this thread, but this one is the best... 0 for 3.
I'll give you some credit... IF you have similarly good predictions in the field events. Your name is "track and field" and you have not justified it. Yet.
I always find it interesting how so many people have these strong, authoritative opinions about who is going to win a race or how fast someone will end up running. It's as if they think they have never watched a championship race in their life and think these athletes are just robots. I wouldn't be surprised if many of them never ran competitively past high school. Seemed pretty obvious to me that Cole Hocker was coming into good form and peaking at the right time. I thought each of the Americans had a shot at bronze, but never thought it was out of the realm of possibility that Hocker or Nuguse could take it! What an exciting race!
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