Can I just say that this is the first LRC thread I have read in a while that 1) was actually about running 2) was 100% on topic 3) did not devolve into culture war attacks and 4) did not devolve into ad hominem arguments and 5) featured sincere and insightful comments throughout.
8 Qs advance out of field of 21 which includes (pr):
Sub-14:20: Tsegay (14:00), Kipyegon (14:05), Taye (14:12), Hassan (14:13) Sub-14:30: Kipkemboi (14:23), Schweizer (14:26), Tanaka (14:29) Sub-14:40: Cranny (14:33), Battocletti (14:35) Sub-14:50: Garcia (14:40) Sub-15:00: Klein (14:51), Ryan (14:57)
Clear top-5: Tsegay, Kipyegon, Taye, Hassan, and Kipkemboi.
Cranny appears best of the rest presuming she's in equal or better shape than at the US Trials.
Schweizer is in a tough spot: her 14:26 pr was four years ago while her 14:45 SB can be matched or bettered by Tanaka, Battocletti and Garcia.
Wow that is a really lopsided split of the heats. I can't see how they came up with that. You got Chebet in heat 2, and the third best ethiopian and pretty much no one else in that heat is a medal contendar. Then the other heat has 5 medal contendars. This might be the most unbalanced heat split in the history of the 5k. Rediculous. Only 2 athletes sub 14:30 in heat 2 and 7 in heat 1!!! WTF.
If you are suggesting Morgan has a better chance of advancing out of heat #2 vs heat #1 if she was in heat #1, you may be correct.
However, if you are suggesting Whittni has a better chance than Elise or Karissa of advancing to the semis, that's a Big Negatory.
There are 10 women in heat #2 with sub-14:50 prs. Morgan's pr is 15:02. At least Cranny and Schweizer have prs within the top-10 in heat #1 so they are legit contenders for their 8 Qs. Morgan is way behind in this regard.
Heat #2 is actually quite strong. It just pal es in comparison with the top 7 or 8 runners in heat #1. Thus, the "Killer Heat" moniker.
The biggest winner of this lopsided heat split is Chebet. She can just jog it in with no worries at all, with zero people in her heat under 14:34 this year (and only Eisa with a PB under 14:30) Chebet basically has no competition at all. She'll be nice and rested for the final. I think she might have already been the favorite, and this helps.
The biggest winner of this lopsided heat split is Chebet. She can just jog it in with no worries at all, with zero people in her heat under 14:34 this year (and only Eisa with a PB under 14:30) Chebet basically has no competition at all. She'll be nice and rested for the final. I think she might have already been the favorite, and this helps.
Thinking other runners besides Chebet & Eisa will be sharing the lead, pushing the pace to something around 15:00 or a little faster. Chebet & Eisa can just chill.
At last year's Worlds, Faith won in 14:53.88 with Chebet 3rd in 14:54.33.
Chebet's 28:54/10k WR earlier this year suggests a 5000 equivalent of approx 13:57.
Believe Kipyegon is still the 5000 favorite. However, Chebet could turn the final into a pure fitness test and attempt to run the legs out from under Faith, Gudaf and Siffan.
But, semis first.
Heat #1 is so loaded at the top. Several sub-15s -- even a sub-14:50 or two -- will not advance.
The biggest winner of this lopsided heat split is Chebet. She can just jog it in with no worries at all, with zero people in her heat under 14:34 this year (and only Eisa with a PB under 14:30) Chebet basically has no competition at all. She'll be nice and rested for the final. I think she might have already been the favorite, and this helps.
Thinking other runners besides Chebet & Eisa will be sharing the lead, pushing the pace to something around 15:00 or a little faster. Chebet & Eisa can just chill.
At last year's Worlds, Faith won in 14:53.88 with Chebet 3rd in 14:54.33.
Chebet's 28:54/10k WR earlier this year suggests a 5000 equivalent of approx 13:57.
Believe Kipyegon is still the 5000 favorite. However, Chebet could turn the final into a pure fitness test and attempt to run the legs out from under Faith, Gudaf and Siffan.
But, semis first.
Heat #1 is so loaded at the top. Several sub-15s -- even a sub-14:50 or two -- will not advance.
Good point Kipyegon is probably still the favorite, especially if the final goes slower than 14:15. Chebet needs a really fast pace.
I think you'd have to say the following are 100% locks (minus a fall): Tsegay, Kipyegon, Taye, Kipkemboi
All but locks: Hassan (a little pause with that 1500)
Expected In: Cranny (has the kick for heats)
Wouldn't Be Surprised Either Way: Battocletti, Schweizer, Garcia, Tanaka
In a battle of kicks, you might lean Battocletti and Schweizer over Tanaka. If it's more of a fitness contest, that's where Schweizer might have a problem.
I'm mad at myself for even softening this at all. Tanaka off a slow pace, terrible kick.
Can I just say that this is the first LRC thread I have read in a while that 1) was actually about running 2) was 100% on topic 3) did not devolve into culture war attacks and 4) did not devolve into ad hominem arguments and 5) featured sincere and insightful comments throughout.
Great job, everyone!
Heats are now over, speculations were mostly correct -- didn't see Tanaka fading so badly but expected someone with a sub-14:40 pb to go down -- so new threads will speculate on Monday's finals.
So, this thread has served its purpose.
Other than the 2nd post which was immediately deleted, the goons stayed away.
Like Running UberNerd stated above, great job, everyone for keeping this thread on point and civil. It should serve as a template for what a sports fan's forum discussion should look like.
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