Will Kipchoge and Bekele finish before/after the top American?

eagleeye wrote:

Kipruto for the win (Lemma was my original pick here after his Boston performance). The other younger East Africans will be racing for gold and fall apart a bit after Kipruto shakes them.

Bekele/Kipchoge have more to prove by simply making it on the podium at their age. I'm giving Bekele the edge here to tough it out for silver - don't think Kipchoge has it in him to do well on this course. Absolute GOAT but only when the course is fast.

Going with Young for bronze. The advantage the Americans have that nobody is talking about is that Mantz and Young are the likeliest two people in the entire field to work together. Same country, same college, current training partners, close friends, they both seem like they have the kind of philosophy where even one of them coming close to a podium spot would be celebrated by both. Obviously towards the end they'll race each other, but I think they will work together for the first 20-22 miles, while most of the field (even within country) are running far more individually. Young looked better at the Trials even though Mantz won, so I'm going with him as a dark horse for third. They are also far more likely to run hard for a podium spot than to aim for a "crash or burn" chance at gold like the top athletes in the field.

3rd place won't be under 2:12.

UpperState wrote:

eagleeye wrote:

Kipruto for the win (Lemma was my original pick here after his Boston performance). The other younger East Africans will be racing for gold and fall apart a bit after Kipruto shakes them.

Bekele/Kipchoge have more to prove by simply making it on the podium at their age. I'm giving Bekele the edge here to tough it out for silver - don't think Kipchoge has it in him to do well on this course. Absolute GOAT but only when the course is fast.

Going with Young for bronze. The advantage the Americans have that nobody is talking about is that Mantz and Young are the likeliest two people in the entire field to work together. Same country, same college, current training partners, close friends, they both seem like they have the kind of philosophy where even one of them coming close to a podium spot would be celebrated by both. Obviously towards the end they'll race each other, but I think they will work together for the first 20-22 miles, while most of the field (even within country) are running far more individually. Young looked better at the Trials even though Mantz won, so I'm going with him as a dark horse for third. They are also far more likely to run hard for a podium spot than to aim for a "crash or burn" chance at gold like the top athletes in the field.

3rd place won't be under 2:12.

I 100% agree with the bolded text above. I think either Mantz or Young are going to be a surprise medalist.

THOUGHTSLEADER wrote:

Well you realize 2:04 is a long way from 2:07high, which is where the Americans are. Bekele and his coach seem high on his preparation which is frequently not the case. The other factor is this race might go out pretty slow and tactical, which would mitigate your point on the hills somewhat. Boston was so bad for Eliud because he led out hard into a slight headwind ahead of the hills right? I tend to think this will be a cagey affair with the big moves in the hills and after. Sure, Kipchoge and Bekele could fade a bit but I’m more inclined to believe that if they’re beaten it will be because Kiplangat, Abdi, Nageeye and the younger Kenyans and Ethiopians break them at the end with a really quick close than an all-out disaster (DNF or 2:12+). We’ll see, they are old. They have a huge fitness advantage and Bekele is great on hills I have no doubt of that.

Peach Pit wrote:

THOUGHTSLEADER wrote:

Well you realize 2:04 is a long way from 2:07high, which is where the Americans are. Bekele and his coach seem high on his preparation which is frequently not the case. The other factor is this race might go out pretty slow and tactical, which would mitigate your point on the hills somewhat. Boston was so bad for Eliud because he led out hard into a slight headwind ahead of the hills right? I tend to think this will be a cagey affair with the big moves in the hills and after. Sure, Kipchoge and Bekele could fade a bit but I’m more inclined to believe that if they’re beaten it will be because Kiplangat, Abdi, Nageeye and the younger Kenyans and Ethiopians break them at the end with a really quick close than an all-out disaster (DNF or 2:12+). We’ll see, they are old. They have a huge fitness advantage and Bekele is great on hills I have no doubt of that.

The difference between 2:08 and 2:01 turned into 60 seconds on the hills of Boston. Kipchoge surely lost energy leading into the wind, but I don't think drafting was the difference between him winning or losing. If things go a little worse for Kipchoge and a little better for Mantz in Paris it could happen.