Kipruto for the win (Lemma was my original pick here after his Boston performance). The other younger East Africans will be racing for gold and fall apart a bit after Kipruto shakes them.
Bekele/Kipchoge have more to prove by simply making it on the podium at their age. I'm giving Bekele the edge here to tough it out for silver - don't think Kipchoge has it in him to do well on this course. Absolute GOAT but only when the course is fast.
Going with Young for bronze. The advantage the Americans have that nobody is talking about is that Mantz and Young are the likeliest two people in the entire field to work together. Same country, same college, current training partners, close friends, they both seem like they have the kind of philosophy where even one of them coming close to a podium spot would be celebrated by both. Obviously towards the end they'll race each other, but I think they will work together for the first 20-22 miles, while most of the field (even within country) are running far more individually. Young looked better at the Trials even though Mantz won, so I'm going with him as a dark horse for third. They are also far more likely to run hard for a podium spot than to aim for a "crash or burn" chance at gold like the top athletes in the field.
3rd place won't be under 2:12.