Okay but seriously, what is Jakob's path to victory in the 1500?

concerned jingy stan wrote:

Option A: If he frontruns the whole thing he won't be able to go faster than 3:27 high - 3:28 low. This is well within Kerr's PB range particularly when he gets to draft off Jakob for the whole race.

Option B: if he sits back and tries to surge from ~600m out he'll still get outkicked by Kerr because he won't have damaged him as much as in the first option. Kerr won't be stupid enough to frontrun in this case, he'll have a similar plan.

Option C: if it's a slow race then it's suicide as it opens the door to the really fast kickers like Hocker.

Seems to me like he needs to bait Kerr into sharing the lead while also keeping the pace fast enough to stop the field from enrering the conversation. Either that or frontrun a 3:26 Rudisha 2012 style, but that is way harder to do in the 1500.

GreatDane wrote:

concerned jingy stan wrote:

Option A: If he frontruns the whole thing he won't be able to go faster than 3:27 high - 3:28 low. This is well within Kerr's PB range particularly when he gets to draft off Jakob for the whole race.

Option B: if he sits back and tries to surge from ~600m out he'll still get outkicked by Kerr because he won't have damaged him as much as in the first option. Kerr won't be stupid enough to frontrun in this case, he'll have a similar plan.

Option C: if it's a slow race then it's suicide as it opens the door to the really fast kickers like Hocker.

Seems to me like he needs to bait Kerr into sharing the lead while also keeping the pace fast enough to stop the field from enrering the conversation. Either that or frontrun a 3:26 Rudisha 2012 style, but that is way harder to do in the 1500.

To be honest I have never seen a stronger, faster finish than Jakob in Monaco. I no longer believe that Kerr’s kick will be as much of a factor. If he does a long drive from around 700m I feel it’s going to be game over for Kerr. Especially after the heats and semis.

Pikachu wrote:

concerned jingy stan wrote:

Option A: If he frontruns the whole thing he won't be able to go faster than 3:27 high - 3:28 low. This is well within Kerr's PB range particularly when he gets to draft off Jakob for the whole race.

Option B: if he sits back and tries to surge from ~600m out he'll still get outkicked by Kerr because he won't have damaged him as much as in the first option. Kerr won't be stupid enough to frontrun in this case, he'll have a similar plan.

Option C: if it's a slow race then it's suicide as it opens the door to the really fast kickers like Hocker.

Seems to me like he needs to bait Kerr into sharing the lead while also keeping the pace fast enough to stop the field from enrering the conversation. Either that or frontrun a 3:26 Rudisha 2012 style, but that is way harder to do in the 1500.

I think all he probably can/should do is not let a crazy last 150 happen. He ran 3:26 after all with a good close (40:low) and might get even sharper come Paris. If I were him I'd go quick from 450/500 to go, regardless what happens before. If the lap from 900 - 1300 is run hard enough there won't be much of a real burst in the last 200. So if it is really slow till then this might be a 52/53. Then a 26 ftw. As long as the last 200 are not really quicker than 26 seconds from anyone and he is in front, he will have a very good shot at gold. As long as everyone is hurting with 200 to go he will be fine. His speed is better than many people think. And yes, this means I think he has at least 1:44.x 800 speed. He is that quick.

justanothercuriousdude wrote:

Path Seeker wrote:

Jakob has no path to victory. He will lose!

I think Jakob very well might win. -My guesses are that Jakob will be in 3.26 flat shape in the final (not solo but paced shape) and Josh in 3.27 flat paced shape (only guesses based on current context). They will then be so alike in shape that I think coincidence and luck and what the other runners do will play a huge part. But I give the upper hand to the athlete with the best all out capacity…

I think Jakob can win with the same strategy he used in his two last global WC losses -front running from 500m to at least 1300m. He will then be vulnerable in a situation with Josh glued to his back all the way (like El Guerrouj was vs Lagat and Ngeny), but this doesn’t seem to be most likely scenario. -Josh needs a lot of luck to reach that position. He wasn’t able to that in WC 2023 (despite having that as the preferred option even then), but had to fight in the field. Wightman neither was drafted by Jakob in WC 2022, so this theoretically vulnerability for Jakob isn’t as probably as most posters seem to think. But Josh might get lucky -with better luck than Jakob he wins… I’ll give Jakob 60/40 over Josh.

Trollminator wrote:

Imagine this. You are about to race in the Olympic final. You know Jakob and Josh are that much fitter and that Josh is going to run on Jakob's shoulder. You know Jakob is going to make it a really fast race and you'll likely need to run a PB. Most likely, you are going to decide to run your own race instead of being hell bent on disrupting what those two do. Hocker is not going to jump to the front. I also haven't seen that kind of aggressive positioning from Nuguse. These guys know it's going to be a fast one and all they can do is sit tight and run PBs and hope they find themselves in medal contention. Meanwhile, Jakob and Josh are there for the gold. It's a different mentality and they are indeed that much fitter. Mark my words. Josh will not be disrupted by others as he sits on Jakob.