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Nuguse is still our best shot at a medal in the 1500

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  • registered

    westsouthrunner

    Member since 06/29/2016.

    2,589 posts. Last post 15 hours ago.
    1 year ago 07/15/2024 10:49am EDT
    re: Old Runner

    Old Runner wrote:

    I disagree to a point. Yared is a VERY good miler, yes. However, his best times are run in time-trial scenarios. The problem: he doesn't have a "Killer" kick at the end of the race. Rather, he is hanging on for dear life. When the race is fast enough, that's good for him. HOWEVER, in a tactical race, even when it tends to be fast, he cannot kick it in like several others can. In a tactical race, I believe Hocker is the better chance for a medal. In a fast race, where the pace runs the kick out of the opponents, then Yared may the better chance. But history tells us the Olympic final is more often a tactical race.

    Race will never be that slow with 2 3:43 guys and 3:28 Tim. Kerr probably feels the most confident in any style of race. Besides these guys did their homework. No way they give guys like Cole and Hobbs a chance to win it all.

  • Runfronter

    Anonymous Poster

    1 year ago 07/15/2024 11:07am EDT
    re: Freebirdorchestra

    Freebirdorchestra wrote:

    007run wrote:

    Although Yared came in 4th at Monaco today, I like that he still ran 3:29 off a hot pace and was still in the mix, despite breaking down a bit at the end. I think if he had backed off just a bit on that hot opening pace, he would have been right there for 2nd or 3rd. Say what you will about his "killer instinct/eye of the tiger" nonsense, but I'm a firm believer that consistency eventually pays off. He's already one of the best in the world, he just needs a few more things to fall into place for him. He's in a very similar place to where Kerr was before he elevated his competitiveness to another level. I still expect big things from Yared in Paris.

    The problem is that eventually, you either need to front run or kick. It's one of those things where, if you figure it out, it looks like it was there for the taking all along, but some people never figure it out, or don't have the physical capacity to fully execute it.

    You need to front run or kick to win. You don’t need to do either to medal

  • registered

    bradley strider

    Member since 12/02/2015.

    253 posts. Last post 1 week ago.
    1 year ago 07/15/2024 5:10pm EDT
    re: hfjhsdjkf

    hfjhsdjkf wrote:

    Let's not forget Kessler. After PRing in the 1500m in his last race, he ran two huge 800m PRs. I think he is the most likely to PR in Paris. As long as he gets the tactics right, he'll be right there.

    But I still think Hocker is the one most on fire. So I give him the best shot at a medal.

    Which is weird because Nuguse is a 3:43 miler and the most predictable choice.

    We've never sent a better team to the Olympics for 1500m. And yet none of them is a shoe in for a medal. And any of them could get a medal.

    The only thing I'm sure of is that all of them won't medal.

    tough to argue with this

  • registered

    paremata

    Member since 07/13/2019.

    189 posts. Last post 2 months ago.
    1 year ago 07/15/2024 9:07pm EDT
    re: 007run

    007run wrote:

    Although Yared came in 4th at Monaco today, I like that he still ran 3:29 off a hot pace and was still in the mix, despite breaking down a bit at the end. I think if he had backed off just a bit on that hot opening pace, he would have been right there for 2nd or 3rd. Say what you will about his "killer instinct/eye of the tiger" nonsense, but I'm a firm believer that consistency eventually pays off. He's already one of the best in the world, he just needs a few more things to fall into place for him. He's in a very similar place to where Kerr was before he elevated his competitiveness to another level. I still expect big things from Yared in Paris.

    I'm not really a big fan of Hocker but he looked strong at the trials. I would say it's pretty even chance. Hocker won't be able to make the same tactical move he made with 250 meters to go. He will be too far out to medal. He needs to be in better position going into that last lap and maybe even 600 out.

  • registered

    RichardRider

    Member since 05/30/2018.

    3,383 posts. Last post 23 hours ago.
    1 year ago 07/15/2024 10:03pm EDT
    re: paremata

    paremata wrote:

    007run wrote:

    Although Yared came in 4th at Monaco today, I like that he still ran 3:29 off a hot pace and was still in the mix, despite breaking down a bit at the end. I think if he had backed off just a bit on that hot opening pace, he would have been right there for 2nd or 3rd. Say what you will about his "killer instinct/eye of the tiger" nonsense, but I'm a firm believer that consistency eventually pays off. He's already one of the best in the world, he just needs a few more things to fall into place for him. He's in a very similar place to where Kerr was before he elevated his competitiveness to another level. I still expect big things from Yared in Paris.

    I'm not really a big fan of Hocker but he looked strong at the trials. I would say it's pretty even chance. Hocker won't be able to make the same tactical move he made with 250 meters to go. He will be too far out to medal. He needs to be in better position going into that last lap and maybe even 600 out.

    Gotta stay in the pocket and hang on to have a shot at a medal. Could be a mess at the start causing a long build up that leads to a lot of position changes. Yep, position at the moment of truth but its the getting into position that is hard. Stay off the rail behind the top 2 leaders.

    Gotta get to the final first though. Positions can be messy in the semis as well. BIG DIFFERENCE between DL time trials vs tactical rounds.

    Americans could be fighting for 2 medals if we are that fortunate. Watch for Formula 1 or TDF stage finish the last homestretch!! JI has failed before but we know he's fast. His best chance is to lead coast to coast. Kerr can hang around and pick him off but he'd better stay close. Hocker could be dangerous if he's close. Nuguse needs to be in JIs hip pocket to have a chance to medal.

    Now for the unknown???

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