Let me get this straight, he just ran a top 10 time of all time in the history of the 1500… and you think that lessens his chance of winning in Paris? Jakob is definitely the favorite now
It sounds counterintuitive, but the fact that he's become the favorite actually lessens his chance of winning. Now the pressure is back on him, instead of Kerr. And yeah, a time-trial with pacers and wavelight is different from a championship race, if anything, it may take away his race savvy.
Let me get this straight, he just ran a top 10 time of all time in the history of the 1500… and you think that lessens his chance of winning in Paris? Jakob is definitely the favorite now
And if he loses yet again you will claim exactly the same thing at the next WC.
Nothing has changed. Kerrs strategy was and is: Sit on Jacob and kick last 200. Kerrs problem now, is that Jacob will be 2 seconds ahead of him with 200m to go.
Glad to be following the sport at this time, competitive and probably cleaner than ever. Paris will be awesome.
Jakob will only be 2 secs in front of Kerr at 200m to go if he runs a time-trial. He won't do that in a championship final. It means he has to front-run throughout - and pace everyone else. Can't see it.
Yep, and Kerr is clearly faster than last year as well. Same game.
The key is what happens between 800m and 1400m. If it's slow Kerr will win. Jakob needs that 600m segment to be 1:22. He needs to zap Kerrs kick. Simple physiology
I do not understand why people give the win for Kerr when it comes to their kicks. Kerr has yet to definitively prove that he can finish faster than Jakob. Jakob has "outkicked" Kerr many more times Kerr has outkicked him. He just ran 3:26 by dropping a 54.0 final 400. He's proven he can run a 52 low final 400 just like many other 1500 runners.
This difference is in positioning and energy expenditure. Jakob's kick is fine. He just needs to not be so arrogant and lead so much of the race.
Jakob would be too carried away by the result like last year and thinks he can do the same in a non-paced run. Kerr would just sit on him and outkick him with 200m to go and run 3:27-28 FTW.
Good. What is the odd now? I want to bet my house money on this race. Should I go all in with Kerr now?
I like his boldness. Lots of times I gamble and won't pick the obvious to win because it's more challenging picking when they will lose. I do root for the best most of the time but I like to gamble but at this time Jakob is still peaking. Because he was patient and didn't run too many races. I'm not betting against him on the Olympics this round.
Let me get this straight, he just ran a top 10 time of all time in the history of the 1500… and you think that lessens his chance of winning in Paris? Jakob is definitely the favorite now
It sounds counterintuitive, but the fact that he's become the favorite actually lessens his chance of winning. Now the pressure is back on him, instead of Kerr. And yeah, a time-trial with pacers and wavelight is different from a championship race, if anything, it may take away his race savvy.
Who are you? and why are you posting complete idiotic crap.
Jakob would be too carried away by the result like last year and thinks he can do the same in a non-paced run. Kerr would just sit on him and outkick him with 200m to go and run 3:27-28 FTW.
This works off of a 3.28 finishing time but does it work off of a 3.26 race ( looks to me like he can run 3.26 leading from 1250 out ) . can kerr kick better than Jacob off that sort of race ? . Hoare, Nuguse, and cheruiyot showed how hard it was and they have all out kicked Kerr off a slower pace .
He CAN and WILL do the same thing. Last year he was ill and was below maximal performance level. Keep hating. Can't wait for the olympic gold to be around Jakob's neck.
Its all about the timing of fitness going into the Olympics. I just have a feeling Kerr has it wrong. Amazing workouts, super fast indoor times, dominating early performances, and energy wasted on emotional interviews. Its like he is trying too hard. The complete opposite is Jakob slowly building his fitness and not afraid of putting it on the line to become better. He is not emotional and uptight. He is also getting better with each race. I see a real stone cold killer coming after the 1500/5K at the Olympics. Kerr just happens to be one of many in the mix. Jakab respects all of his opponents enough to just bring his best to every race. Kerr is setting up for a disaster and Jakab is setting up to do his best performance.
He needs to do what EL G did in 2004. In 2004 there was Lagat, now there is Kerr. So Jacobs best chance would be to go to the front at 400 and then constantly increase pace with each 100m covered. Still Kerr would most likely challenge him, but if pace is just right, Jacob would be able to hold off.
Its all about the timing of fitness going into the Olympics. I just have a feeling Kerr has it wrong. Amazing workouts, super fast indoor times, dominating early performances, and energy wasted on emotional interviews. Its like he is trying too hard. The complete opposite is Jakob slowly building his fitness and not afraid of putting it on the line to become better. He is not emotional and uptight. He is also getting better with each race. I see a real stone cold killer coming after the 1500/5K at the Olympics. Kerr just happens to be one of many in the mix. Jakab respects all of his opponents enough to just bring his best to every race. Kerr is setting up for a disaster and Jakab is setting up to do his best performance.
This^. Progression and timing of improvement might matter more than tactics if someone gets it wrong…
Honestly, I actually agree with this. Jakob's best chance in Paris was to smarten up and run a sound tactical race, sitting back the first 800m before making a long run for home in the last 700m to burn the kick out of Kerr and Hocker. His confidence is his biggest strength when he's struggling, but it becomes a weakness when he actually backs it up with times, because it turns into arrogance and overconfidence, which has been his undoing the last 2 years.
Kerr + the field with the advantage in an unpaced championship race.
The key is what happens between 800m and 1400m. If it's slow Kerr will win. Jakob needs that 600m segment to be 1:22. He needs to zap Kerrs kick. Simple physiology
I do not understand why people give the win for Kerr when it comes to their kicks. Kerr has yet to definitively prove that he can finish faster than Jakob. Jakob has "outkicked" Kerr many more times Kerr has outkicked him. He just ran 3:26 by dropping a 54.0 final 400. He's proven he can run a 52 low final 400 just like many other 1500 runners.
This difference is in positioning and energy expenditure. Jakob's kick is fine. He just needs to not be so arrogant and lead so much of the race.
Ingebrigtsen has a Ph-D in training, peaking and racing. He won’t be affected by arrogance. Kerr does have better top-end speed, so Jakob will need to put him under enough stress to be able to hold him off during the last 200m.
I don’t know if it’s been noted, but Jakob and El Geurrouj, in his WR, had identical splits through 1100m, but El G ran a 53.5 last lap.