I’m old enough to remember when the entire US distance running community was crying that running a flat Florida course at 75 degrees was cruel and unusual punishment to Americas trial runners.
You are outing yourself as an clueless person that does not pay attention to details. You are correct, there were complaints about the warm weather for the trails, but not for the silly reason that you misrememeber. There was little thing called the Olympic time standard that was a concern for the US marathoners in that race. Having the race in warm conditions was throwing the possibilty of top 3 hitting that out the window.
As I was typing that I was thinking that means Mantz is a contender.
Mantz is probably the only guy who could still run a PB on a course like that. Betting the winning time will be 2:08 to 2:10. Definitely a medal threat. Would be pretty funny tbh.
What makes you think Mantz could do such a thing? Young could have beaten him at the trials and he’s no East African.
Mantz is not going to beat guys that have PRs 4-5 minutes faster than him. How could it be possible to overcome a 10 second per mile disadvantage?
Most of the top contenders will drop out by 30k to preserve themselves for a pay day at a fall marathon. We'll be left with an underwhelming winner.
And because of that it'll be easier to finish in the top 10 here than it is at any of the world marathon majors, especially when you only have 6 total runners from Kenya/Ethiopia and half will probably drop out or jog it in.
That's not that crazy, there's a 12 mile hilly loop I do all the time and do my long runs for boston on, it's about 1000 feet of vertical gain for 12 miles. It's on the road , but on the trails I'll knock out 3000 ft in a few miles. Just train for it instead of being pansies.
That's not that crazy, there's a 12 mile hilly loop I do all the time and do my long runs for boston on, it's about 1000 feet of vertical gain for 12 miles. It's on the road , but on the trails I'll knock out 3000 ft in a few miles. Just train for it instead of being pansies.
At 4:40 pace?
I think the hills/heat will be an equalizer and it won’t be good for Kipchoge. Not sure it will be good for Bekele either, but he was a dominant cross country runner. It definitely puts Mantz and Young in a top 10 conversation with a remote shot of a medal if the favorites underestimate the course.
the kenyans and ethiopians run up mountains all the time whatre u ppl even talking about. its the americans who demand flat courses with perfect conditions...this'll be another race dominated by the east africans mantz will place 12th and young will dnf bc hes a wimp
1400 ft+ total elevation gain with max gradient of 13.5%. Then just as much descending to chop up those quads. Seems complete opposite of all those super fast 2:01-2:04 type courses the Africans normally race on.
This smells a lot like Athens 2004 (which had less total elevation gain than this race but was the hottest marathon ever at 86 °F).
All you need now is a heat wave to spice things up and really opens the door for some underdogs to steal the show. I predict this will be the event of the games.
I may get crucified for this, but when the Marathon is hilly and hot, it becomes the opposite of "the event of the games" for me.
This does seem like a relatively weaker men’s team than any of those, although maybe that’s with hindsight on those other team’s members and in 5-10 years we’ll think of one of Young, Mantz, or Korir like we do Meb or Rupp. I don’t think so, though.
I find paced races fairly boring. My preference is real racing; tactics. surprises. grit. For that reason i'm looking forward to the Olympic marathons. Could be new faces on the podium or old hands willing to suffer or maybe someone who hangs back and moves through the field. Mantz and Young I think have very good chances to take down some big names.
I've said it before and I'll say it again: Everyone who has ever run 2:10:00 or faster at the Olympics has won a medal. I doubt this year will be different. Door is wide open for underdogs.
1400 ft+ total elevation gain with max gradient of 13.5%. Then just as much descending to chop up those quads. Seems complete opposite of all those super fast 2:01-2:04 type courses the Africans normally race on.
This smells a lot like Athens 2004 (which had less total elevation gain than this race but was the hottest marathon ever at 86 °F).
All you need now is a heat wave to spice things up and really opens the door for some underdogs to steal the show. I predict this will be the event of the games.
That's why we had an Olympic Trials on a similar course....oh wait, nevermind.
Would it be underwhelming if the winning time is 2:12 and the top five finishers on the men’s side are within 2 min of each other? Or 2:30 in the women’s with the same late race competition? I’d rather watch the competitors fighting for position in a tactical race. That’s one thing that’s unique about the Olympics.
Give me a Wanjiru 2008 Olympics marathon. I watched that whole race waiting for the implosion that never happened.
Barcelona 1992 had a great men's race for first and second on a fairly tough course on a hot day.
Underwhelming would be something like the Atlanta 1996 men's race. Random South African guy winning.
Josiah Thugwane. Anybody know if he accomplished anything notable before the OG?
Most of the top contenders will drop out by 30k to preserve themselves for a pay day at a fall marathon. We'll be left with an underwhelming winner.
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I agree several top marathoners in both fields will DNF; however, there are just too many sub 2:20 women for ONE of them not to be able to handle the difficult course and secure the GOLD. In my opinion the number of sub 2:20 women vs the field and I give the sub 2:20 group a 70% chance of winning. The one thing that could swing things drastically is the HEAT, if it's very warm and along with the difficult course then that could swing things in favor of the non sub 2:20 women. It could also open the door for TWO of the American women to have a great chance at top 5.